Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
319 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the middle Ohio Valley tonight
with showers ending west to east Thursday morning. Surface high
pressure will provide dry conditions starting late Thursday.
Temperatures will start below normal on Thursday, then warm up
to above average readings by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Continuing to track pre-frontal convection shifting east through
the forecast area this evening. Most areas north and west of
I-71 have stabilized due to multiple rounds of showers, with
radar trends showing a decreasing reflectivity pattern. However,
to the southeast, partly sunny skies have led to temperatures
well into the 80s. Will need to watch this area carefully as
forcing moves into the Lower Scioto River Valley and
north/northeast KY early this evening.

Low pressure located near Lake Superior will continue toward
Hudson Bay tonight. A cold front will slowly push east tonight,
clearing the CWA by midnight... though post- frontal showers
will likely continue through the near- term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance is tracking a subtle wave traveling northeast along the
departing frontal boundary tonight. This will likely delay the
end of showers across our southeast counties until mid-morning
Thursday. This will lead to a mostly cloudy day with cool post-
frontal temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Skies begin to clear Thursday night as high pressure builds in
from the west. Radiational cooling allows temperatures to dip
into the mid-30s north to low-40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Center of surface high pressure across the Great Lakes at the
beginning of the period will gradually shift off to the mid Atlantic
early next week. This sprawling ridge will extend into the forecast
area through the period. This is just a very small chance of some
showers Monday afternoon and evening as a mid level disturbance
tracks southeast. Outside of that slight chance, it will be dry.
Temperatures will start out a bit below normal but a warming trend
will occur with highs well into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s at that point.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers with embedded thunder to continue to impact Cincinnati
terminals along with DAY in the near term... followed by ILN and
Columbus terminals over the next hour or two. Beyond this, a
continuous line of storms will push through the region from west
to east. Based on current radar trends (which show timing an
hour or two faster than latest CAM guidance), the line will
impact area terminals late in the afternoon through early
evening hours.

Gusty winds will continue to be possible through around 00Z,
especially in and around storms.

Guidance has backed off a bit on MVFR ceilings following the
overnight passage of the cold front. This is the most uncertain
part of the forecast. Have included a relatively short period
below 3,000 feet for now and will continue to monitor.

.OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078.
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>098.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
334 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

OHZ026-034-035-042>044-061100-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
334 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Strong to severe
storms will be possible, with the greatest threat expected between 2
PM and 10 PM EDT. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging
winds. However, large hail and a few tornadoes may occur as well. A
strong tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

KYZ099-100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-061100-
Mason-Lewis-Union OH-Delaware-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
334 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Strong to severe
storms will be possible, with the greatest threat expected between 2
PM and 10 PM EDT. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging
winds. Isolated large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be
possible. In addition, gusty winds around 40 mph are forecast
outside of precipitation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ051>053-060>062-070>072-
077-078-061100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-
334 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Strong to severe
storms will be possible, with the greatest threat expected between 2
PM and 10 PM EDT. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging
winds. Isolated large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

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