Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
410 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south of the area this evening. A
small disturbance will drop southeast across the region late
tonight into Saturday morning followed by a secondary cold
front Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure will then
build in for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
East-west cold front extending from southeast Indiana into
far southern Ohio will continue to sag south late this afternoon
and evening. Extreme instability is present. While the SPC
mesoanalysis is not showing it, there is a cap, per the 18Z ILN
sounding. Nonetheless, storms have been developing in this
environment. Bulk shear is rather weak, although low level shear
is relatively good in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio.
With ample instability, some strong to severe storms will occur.
Expect storms to move south of the area before 00Z. As the
storms and boundary keep moving south late today, this should
bring down the high heat indices.

A disturbance will track southeast out Iowa and push into the
Tri-State late tonight. There is uncertainty how much activity
will hold together into the area, but this remains worthy of
chance PoPs.

It will still be warm and humid, although not quite to the level
of the past few nights. Lows will generally be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers and storms may still be ongoing in the southern
counties early Saturday. It does look like some isolated to
scattered showers and storms may redevelop on Saturday afternoon
ahead of a secondary cold front. Whatever does develop will
diminish/move south of the forecast area by early Saturday
evening.

Highs will be in the 80s areawide with lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build in Sunday and Monday with a cooler and
drier airmass. A cold front will move through the area on
Tuesday. It may be moisture starved, so chance of rain does not
look too high. But even cooler air will move in behind it with
highs in the 70s and lows in the lower to mid 50s. Temperatures
will start to warm back up on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms may impact KCVG/KLUK early in the period.
Beyond that, cumulus at all terminals will diminish towards 00Z.

Lingering near surface moisture will allow for mist/fog to
develop, mainly after 06Z, resulting in visibility restrictions.
Some showers and storms could push through the Cincinnati area
towards 12Z. There is a signal that MVFR ceilings may also form
across part of the area at that time.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ060>063-073-
     074-082-088.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ070>072-077>081.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ100.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ089>099.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
218 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-261000-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-
218 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070>072-077>081-261000-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
218 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

In addition, isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may
be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ060>063-073-074-261000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Ross-
Hocking-
218 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ100-OHZ082-088-261000-
Lewis-Pike-Scioto-
218 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky and South
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition, isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may
be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
445 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SW Brooksville        38.65N 84.11W
08/25/2023                   Bracken            KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down on 165 off of 19. Time estimated
            from RADAR.

&&

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