Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
835 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass will remain in place across the Ohio
Valley today. This will lead to occasional chances for
thunderstorms through tonight. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will then continue Saturday into Saturday evening
as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
Active situation unfolding across the region with decaying
overnight convection and cloud cover quickly dissipating across
the tri-state area.

To the northwest, the combination of a weak shortwave and an
overnight MCS (and cold-pool) is resulting in fresh thunderstorm
development across central Indiana. Effective shear and
plentiful energy across Indiana will continue to support new
updrafts. Mean steering flow suggests this activity will
move eastward over the next few hours, as the outflow boundary
from the overnight MCS undercuts the shortwave convection. This
results in incredible uncertainty for how things evolve this
afternoon with both heating and new storms (SLIGHT risk). For
now, have updated the forecast to show Indiana storms entering
the area before coverage decreases within the stable air mass.
With clouds eroding quickly, heating will resume across the
area. The forcing of the outflow boundary racing southward and
the new heating could result in renewed convection in other
parts of the forecast area.

Forecast uncertainty is high with the afternoon and evening heat
and thunderstorms requiring frequent updates in the forecast.
Will hold on to heat headlines until confidence increasing in
clouds/thunderstorms limiting the threat.

Previous discussion...
Weak west to southwest low level flow and moisture advection
out of a better instability axis back across Illinois and
Indiana has helped keep showers and thunderstorms going across
western portions of our fa this morning. Models have not had a
good handle on this so will just keep chances going through
daybreak or so before tapering them off as we get into the
diurnally less favorable mid morning hours, but confidence is
not very high with this. This morning's activity will also lead
to some uncertainty in the forecast through this afternoon as
lingering boundaries may reignite as we destabilize through the
afternoon hours as temperatures push in the low to mid 90s. As
a result, will carry some lower end pops for this afternoon
across much of the area. Will also maintain the current heat
headlines as they are currently with an excessive heat warning
for the in the Cin-Day corridor and heat advisories elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy will move east across the southern
Great Lakes this evening and through the overnight hours.
Convection and a possible MCS off to our northwest associated
with this will likely push east southeast into our area this
evening and into the overnight hours as the airmass across our
area should still be fairly unstable. A few severe storms will
be possible with damaging wind being the primary threat. A
trailing cold front will push southeast through our area during
the day on Saturday, leading to additional chances for showers
and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Slightly cooler and considerably less humid air builds back
into the region late in the weekend into early next week as
temps trend closer to seasonal norms through at least the first
several days of next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms finally appear to be
tapering off across the Tri State area. As the pcpn ends, we
could see some MVFR cigs develop through mid to late morning at
the western TAF sites. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions
today could result in scattered cu development this afternoon
and the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. There
is a lot of model uncertainty with this though so confidence is
low. A mid level disturbance will approach from the west this
evening and into the overnight hours, leading to better chance
for showers and thunderstorms heading into tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060-062>065-072>074-079>082-088.
     Heat Advisory until noon EDT today for OHZ061-070-071-077-078.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for OHZ061-070-071-077-078.
KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
     Heat Advisory until noon EDT today for KYZ091>093.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for KYZ091>093.
IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073-075-080.
     Heat Advisory until noon EDT today for INZ074.
     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for INZ074.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1157 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

OHZ078>081-281630-
Clermont OH-Highland OH-Adams OH-Brown OH-
1157 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
CLERMONT, BROWN, NORTHWESTERN ADAMS AND WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1156 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lynchburg to near Bethel, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Williamsburg, Lynchburg,
Winchester, Sardinia, Russell, New Market, Emerald, Decatur,
Russellville, Hamersville, Mowrystown, Fayetteville, St. Martin,
Chasetown, Danville in Highland County, Samantha and State Route 32
at US Route 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms become
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 8408 3908 8402 3925 8399 3925 8384
      3922 8384 3922 8381 3929 8374 3930 8372
      3929 8348 3878 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 280DEG 25KT 3922 8388 3892 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Franks

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1206 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

OHZ063-072-073-080-281630-
Highland OH-Ross OH-Fayette OH-Clinton OH-
1206 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FAYETTE,
CLINTON, NORTHERN HIGHLAND AND WEST CENTRAL ROSS COUNTIES THROUGH
1230 PM EDT...

At 1206 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wilmington,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Washington Court House, Wilmington, Hillsboro, Greenfield, Sabina,
Leesburg, New Vienna, Rocky Fork Point, Highland Holiday, Staunton,
Good Hope, Martinsville, Highland, Port William, Melvin, East Monroe,
Samantha, Lees Creek, Rock Mills and Morrisville.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 52 and 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 8389 3955 8383 3956 8377 3955 8367
      3957 8367 3961 8327 3914 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 278DEG 36KT 3941 8378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

JDR

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