Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
225 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off heading into this
evening as a strong low pressure system shifts east across the
lower Great Lakes. High pressure and drier conditions will build
into the area on Tuesday. An unsettled weather pattern will
return for Wednesday and another large system will move through
the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface low over northern Illinois/northern Indiana this
afternoon will track east across the southern Great Lakes
through this evening. A broken line of showers and scattered
thunderstorms has developed this afternoon in a narrow axis of
500 or so J/KG of instability that is shifting east from
eastern Indiana into western Ohio attm. Forcing is being
provided by the mid level short wave moving across northern
Indiana. All of this activity will shift east across most of
our fa through late afternoon into early evening. Surface flow
will continue to veer more to the south and southwest, but
given the strong low level flow, an isolated tornado threat
may persist with these storms. Otherwise, damaging winds will
be the primary threat with these storms. The severe threat
should drop off fairly quickly toward sunset as the storms move
east of our area and we begin to lose the diurnal enhancement.
Outside of storms, strong gradient winds with gusts to around
50 mph possible at times into this evening before beginning to
decrease overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build southeast into the region
through the day on Tuesday, providing dry but somewhat cooler
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 40s
north to the mid 50s south. Lows Tuesday night will be in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main weather impact to the extended period will occur Thursday
night through Friday as a potentially strong low pressure system
moves through the Ohio Valley.

To begin the period on Wednesday, weak high pressure slips off to
the east leaving the forecast area in warm advection with
southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies. Will likely see highs
reaching into the 70s along and south of Interstate 70. Clouds and
precipitation increase heading into the evening and overnight hours
in advance of a cold front. The best chance of showers will be
across the south, where convergence at the nose of a low level jet
is in closest proximity.

High pressure shifts across the Great Lakes region Thursday under a
weak cold air advection regime for the Ohio Valley. This will cause
cooler temperatures, though it will still be above normal for early
March.

The next, more significant system begins to approach the region late
Thursday. Model spread is still high, leaving high uncertainty as to
the exact track of the surface low. The blend of the northern GFS
track and southern ECMWF track provides the potential for wintry
precipitation across the north with rain (possibly heavy) to the
south. Will continue to track updates in the guidance moving
forward. Also, there could be some windy conditions on Friday if the
low center moves near our forecast area.

High pressure returns for the weekend, though clouds will be slow to
clear on Saturday due to cool convergent low level flow off the
Great Lakes. Temperatures will again warm up to close the period on
Sunday and Monday in southerly flow on the back side of the
high.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will overspread the TAF
sites over the couple of hours and continue through late
afternoon. This is in association with a strong low pressure
system moving through the Great Lakes region. A chance of
showers will linger into early evening before tapering off as
the low moves off to the east.

MVFR cigs will prevail through much of the TAF period with some
MVFR to IFR vsbys possible within the shower activity through
this afternoon. Outside of showers, sustained south to southwest
winds of 20 knots with gusts to around 40 knots will be
possible this afternoon. Winds will swing around to the west
this evening and gradually decrease overnight.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Gusty winds will be
likely Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
335 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-280845-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
335 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

There is also the potential for severe weather today with damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes the primary threats. The best threat for
severe weather is between noon and 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
233 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             E MOUNT CARMEL          39.41N 84.87W
02/27/2023  M1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHOTO VERIFIED.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
235 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     HAIL             4 W CEDAR GROVE         39.36N 85.01W
02/27/2023  M1.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHOTO VERIFIED.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GERMANTOWN              39.63N 84.37W
02/27/2023                   MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            POSSIBLE TORNADO FROM MULTIPLE SPOTTERS

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
258 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             5 SW OXFORD             39.46N 84.80W
02/27/2023  M1.25 INCH       BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHOTO VERIFIED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             KETTERING               39.70N 84.15W
02/27/2023  M0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
304 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             OAKWOOD                 39.72N 84.17W
02/27/2023  M0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JEG