Wind Advisory 19, NWS Wichita, KS

577 
WWUS73 KICT 070839
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KSZ052-053-068-069-083-092-093-072245-
/O.EXA.KICT.WI.Y.0019.231207T1600Z-231208T0000Z/
Marion-Chase-Harvey-Butler-Sedgwick-Sumner-Cowley-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, 
Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Newton, El Dorado, Augusta, 
Andover, Rose Hill, Derby, Haysville, Bel Aire, Park City, 
Valley Center, Wichita, Wellington, Winfield, and Arkansas City
239 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Marion, Chase, Harvey, Butler, Sedgwick, Sumner and 
  Cowley Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects, 
  like trash bins and lawn furniture. Small tree limbs could be 
  blown down, and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-072245-
/O.CON.KICT.WI.Y.0019.231207T1600Z-231208T0000Z/
Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-
Labette-
Including the cities of Eureka, Madison, Yates Center, Iola, 
Humboldt, Howard, Moline, Longton, Grenola, Neodesha, Fredonia, 
Chanute, Sedan, Cedar Vale, Coffeyville, Independence, 
and Parsons
239 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Greenwood, Woodson, Allen, Elk, Wilson, Neosho, 
  Chautauqua, Montgomery and Labette Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects, 
  like trash bins and lawn furniture. Small tree limbs could be 
  blown down, and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warmer than normal daytime highs for today and Thursday with
  values approaching possible record highs across central Kansas on
  Thursday

* A upper level wave looks to bring chances of drizzle and rain
  showers/storms to eastern Kansas Friday-Saturday morning, with a
  rain/snow mix possible over Central Kansas on Friday night-
  Saturday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Today-Fri

Surface low pressure will deepen in eastern Colorado for today into
Thursday with a tightening surface pressure gradient over central
and eastern Kansas. This is in response to a upper level wave
currently approaching northwestern states today, then migrating east
across the Rockies and deepening the upper trough axis over the
central plains come Friday. This will cause south/southwest winds to
increase for today and especially on Thursday along with warmer than
normal temperatures. Thursday daytime highs will be the warmest of
the week and with ECMWF EFI index TMax values running at (0.6-
0.7),thus favoring possible daytime record highs in central
Kansas(see Climate section below). The upper trough will then
continue to deepen as it approaches the central plains for Friday.
Model signals show strong low level isentropic lift of increasing
moisture which could generate drizzle over eastern Kansas on Friday
morning/afternoon. The isentropic lift/moisture advection will
deepen for late Friday afternoon/night ahead of the upper trough
over eastern Kansas which could spark off scattered rain
showers/thunderstorms. Meanwhile a strong cold front will surge
southward for Friday night and the colder air could cause a rain to
snow transition over central Kansas. The fleet-footed speed of the
upper trough by the models would favor lower probabilities of snow
accumulation.

Sat-Tue

Lingering rain/snow is possible Saturday morning followed by dry
weather conditions for Saturday afternoon-Monday as upper level
northwest flow regime sets up across the central plains in the wake
of Saturday morning system. A cold and windy day will be in store
for Kansas on Saturday with any precipitation quickly shifting east.
Temperatures will moderate for Sunday and Monday with daytime highs
closer to normal expected. Heading into Tuesday Models differ on the
evolution/location of the next weather system for this period,
therefore confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at all central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas airfields. Stout/gusty south
winds will diminish some by evening and persist overnight,
although will increase once again by mid-late morning Thursday,
as low pressure strengthens over the Northern Plains. A stout
low-level jet around 50-55 kts may support some low-level wind
shear within 1500 ft AGL across eastern Kansas overnight into
early Thursday. After looking at things a bit closer, we may
amend the 18z TAFs to include this low-level wind shear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

The combination of warm temperatures, dry air, and strong southwest
winds will give way to very high grassland fire danger for much of
the area Thursday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Here are the record highs that may be in jeopardy on Thursday
December 7th:

Location    Record High         Forecast High

Russell      65 in 1959           66
Salina       68 in 1933           67

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
CLIMATE...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-070915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
310 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Very high grassland fire danger will be in place Thursday afternoon
for most locations. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

A few thunderstorms could affect affect southeast Kansas Friday
night. Strong or severe storms are not expected. Meanwhile, a rain
snow mix is possible late Friday night into Saturday morning across
mainly central Kansas. Little to no snow accumulation expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict