Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

A slow moving trough of low pressure over east central Kansas may
provide a focus for showers and storms later this afternoon and into
the early evening hours.

Ample 0-3km CAPE/low level lapse rates combined with marginal deep
layer shear/mid-lvl lapse rates and an uncapped airmass ahead of a
slow moving trough axis should allow for a cluster of storms to
develop this afternoon/early evening within the exit region of a NE
to SW oriented H25 jet. The best chances will remain east of the
Kansas Turnpike and should diminish during the evening hours.

Tue-Thu...a mid/upper ridge will expand over the central CONUS
bringing a prolonged period of mild and dry weather conditions
through the period. With rising heights/increasing thickness, the
low level thermal ridge will expand with many areas seeing highs in
the mid to perhaps upper 80s

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

By late Friday, a mid/upper trough over the western CONUS will
emerge over the Central and Northern Plains. An approaching cold
front may become a focus for showers and storms as low level
moisture races northward within the warm sector ahead of the lead
shortwave trough lifting out of the Southern Rockies. A round of
severe storms appears possible, especially over southeast KS where
the better low level moisture is progged. A stable post-frontal
regime is expected to overspread the area on Sat with cooler air
and dry weather anticipated. Rising height/increasing thickness
will arrive early in the week with another warming trend
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

A trough of low pressure at the surface will move slowly eastward
while becoming more diffuse this evening and tonight. This
boundary will become a focus for showers and storms, some possibly
severe for the Flint Hills and much of southeast Kansas. IFR/MVFR
cigs will be likely in and near TSRA, possibly impacting the KCNU
terminal from 20-21Z through 00-01Z. Breezy northwest winds in
the wake of the boundary may develop initially while becoming
light and variable overnight. Breezy southerly winds and VFR will
return to the area on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Gusty southerly winds and above normal temperatures will result in a
very high fire danger during the afternoon hours Tuesday through
Friday. Extreme fire weather may develop over central and portions
of south central Kansas on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  80  52  82 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      47  80  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          49  80  52  82 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        49  79  52  81 /  30   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   49  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         43  82  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      43  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          48  82  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       47  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     49  77  49  78 /  50   0   0   0
Chanute         49  77  50  79 /  50   0   0   0
Iola            49  77  50  78 /  50   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  77  49  78 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM

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