Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Water vapor imagery shows a powerful shortwave rotating across WY
with a vort lobe extending down into the Southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a very strong upper jet is moving into the southern
High Plains. At the surface, deep low pressure is centered over
south central Nebraska with a dryline extending south from the low
across western KS.

Currently keeping an eye on far southeast KS for some possible
elevated convection in the 12-14z range as a dry punch near the
850mb level moves through. If storms would be able to develop,
there would be around 1500-2000 J/KG of CAPE to work with along
with plenty of shear.

Shortwave and associated vort lobe/upper jet will translate east
today and by this afternoon the main upper low will be situated
over north central Nebraska with the surface low over far western
IA. At the same time, the dryline will be surging across central
and eastern KS. This will setup extremely deep mixing this
afternoon to the 500-600mb range which will setup one of the
better wind signals we have seen in a long time for the Flint
Hills into southeast KS. These are the type of conditions usually
seen over the High Plains, not this far east. Previous forecast
had sustained winds this afternoon across south central and
southeast KS in the 30-40 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph and this
continues to look reasonable. Blowing dust will also be an issue,
possibly as far east as the Flint Hills. Confidence is low on if
it will make it as far east as southeast KS.

By late tonight, upper low will be located over northeast IA and
will be moving into the western Great Lakes region by Sat
morning. At the surface, high pressure will slide over the region
for Sat, providing much lighter winds and cooler conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Upper pattern will become more zonal starting Sunday with one weak
impulse tracking across the southern Plains and another series of
waves tracking from the northern Rockies through the Northern
Plains. There is then good model agreement in another trough
digging across the Great Basin and into the Central Rockies Monday
night. This system looks to take a more northerly track and
provide a winter event for Nebraska into the Northern Plains for
Tue into Wed. The main effect from the system for our forecast
area looks again to be strong winds Tue afternoon and evening.

Above normal temps look likely for Sun-Tue with much colder
readings anticipated for Wed into Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MVFR/IFR cigs are quickly begin pushed eastward by an advancing
dryline, and clearing skies should be over the I-135 corridor
after 13Z this morning. A few showers and storms may impact
southeast Kansas (incl. KCNU) through 15Z before quickly moving
eastward. VFR cigs are expected over KCNU after 15Z.

Strong winds westerly winds are expected after 15Z area-wide, and
wind gusts are expected to exceed 50 to 60 mph this afternoon,
especially across south-central and southeast Kansas. Visibilities
may be reduced at times due to blowing dust through 01Z this
evening. Winds should decrease by 01Z area wide, and winds will
gradually shift to out of the northwest with gusts around 25 to 35
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon into the early evening.

Very impressive wind signal will setup this afternoon and early
evening across south central KS and especially from the Flint
Hills into southeast KS. By around noon we are looking for
southwest and eventually west winds in the 30-40 mph range with
gusts 50-60 mph. The highest gusts are anticipated east of I-135
and southeast of the KS Turnpike.

Very dry air will also make its way east today as a dryline surges
east. By noon we are looking for RH values in the 15-20% range for
locations along and west of I-135 with most of the area seeing
RH's around 15% by 3 pm. Any fire that develops will be extremely
difficult to control. Not only is the GFDI at its highest levels
for this afternoon, but the RFTI(Red Flag Threat Index) is also
maxing out in these same locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  37  64  45 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      69  34  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          71  35  62  45 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        74  35  63  44 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  38  64  43 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         64  29  65  46 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      66  31  65  45 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          69  33  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       69  33  62  45 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     78  39  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
Chanute         78  37  62  41 /  30   0   0   0
Iola            77  36  60  40 /  30   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    78  38  62  40 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-091.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-
083-092>096-098>100.

High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ053-069>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-010930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
622 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A couple storms may develop this morning over the Flint Hills into
southeast Kansas. If storms can develop, hail to quarter size will
be possible with the stronger storms.

Very strong southwest and west winds will overspread the area this
afternoon and early evening. See latest winds advisory and high wind
warning for additional details. Strong winds may also result in
some blowing dust this afternoon and early evening.

Strong winds will combine with low relative humidity to produce
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening.
Any fire that develops today or early this evening will be very
difficult to nearly impossible to control.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very high grassland fire danger will be in place across most of the
area for Sunday afternoon. Outdoor burning is not recommended
Sunday. Another volatile fire weather day is anticipated for
Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

Storms will be possible for extreme southeast Kansas on Tuesday
afternoon. Severe storms will be possible with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

KSZ069-070-093-094-311215-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Greenwood KS-Elk KS-
652 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Elk, northeastern
Cowley, southeastern Butler and southwestern Greenwood Counties
through 715 AM CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burden, or 15 miles northeast of Winfield, moving northeast at 80
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka, Howard, Burden, Severy, Grenola, Atlanta, Latham, Cambridge,
Climax, Beaumont, Winfield City Lake and Piedmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9679 3739 9694 3787 9633 3747 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 237DEG 72KT 3736 9675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
713 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

KSZ069-070-093-094-311245-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Greenwood KS-Elk KS-
713 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Elk,
northeastern Cowley, southeastern Butler and southwestern Greenwood
Counties through 745 AM CDT...

At 712 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Atlanta, or 18 miles northeast of Winfield, moving northeast at 60
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burden, Atlanta, Latham, Cambridge, Piedmont and Beaumont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 9671 3737 9683 3777 9644 3754 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 228DEG 51KT 3738 9671

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CUELLAR