Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

A mid to upper level ridge will continue to persist over the Plains,
causing a high pressure to stay over the Northern Plains over the
next couple of days. Central and eastern Kansas looks to remain in
the same summer time pattern as we have been seeing the past few
days.

Today scattered and isolated shower and storm chances look to
be better across central and eastern Kansas. After looking at a
couple of models, they show a weak low pressure system moving
southwest into southern Kansas, which could help the forcing for hit
or miss storm development. There is also weak mid level lapse rates
and shear so severe weather for today looks to be low. But a strong
storm cannot be ruled out with small hail and gusty winds. The main
threat will be heavy rainfall due to slow moving storms and
precipitable water values around 1-1.5.

Tuesday shower and storm chances look to be not as high as today due
to the weak low pressure system moving south into Oklahoma but after
looking at a sounding we still have an uncapped atmosphere across
central and eastern Kansas. There will be weak instability, so
chances of severe weather looks low, but a strong storm cannot be
ruled out. The main threat will be heavy rain and lightning, if you
have outdoor plans be aware of lightning in the vicinity.

Temperatures look to stay near normal with highs in the mid to upper
80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Tuesday night--Wednesday...Lingering subtle mid-upper level energy
exiting to the south may support isolated hit-or-miss showers/storms
through Tuesday evening, especially over central and southern
portions of KS. For Wednesday, we lose the weak upper support,
although continued seasonable precipitable waters in concert with a
weak to uncapped airmass may support additional isolated hit-or-miss
showers/storms Wednesday midday through early evening, especially
east of I-135. As has been the case, the primary hazards with the
strongest activity will be small hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy.

Thursday--Friday night...A weak cool frontal zone approaching from
the northeast in concert with weak upper energy approaching from the
southwest should support an uptick in hit-or-miss shower/storm
chances and coverage across the region by midday Thursday. As has
been the case the past several days, continued weak shear combined
with poor lapse rates and seasonably high precipitable waters will
support low severe weather chances, although pockets of heavy rain
and localized flooding are possible.

Saturday--Monday...Continued off-and-on shower/storm chances look to
persist through the weekend across the region, as weak upper energy
approaching from the west/southwest interacts with the slow-moving
cool frontal zone. Upper ridging building in from the west as
supported by the deterministic and ensemble consensus should support
a drying trend by Sunday night--Monday.

Tuesday...Deterministic consensus is in surprisingly good agreement
supporting increasing severe weather potential, as mid-upper flow
increases amidst increasing buoyancy and steepening lapse rates,
ahead of an approaching frontal zone. This is still a ways out, so
uncertainty remains high...stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

VFR conditions should hold across all sites throughout the day on
Monday. Expecting scattered shower/storm development as the
afternoon progresses, but with low PoPs and high uncertainty
regarding where these will occur, no mention is in the TAFs and will
amend as necessary. Look for these storms to die after sunset and
for light and variable winds to prevail through the overnight
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  63  86  64 /  20  20  20   0
Hutchinson      86  61  86  62 /  20  20  10   0
Newton          86  62  86  63 /  20  20  20   0
ElDorado        86  63  85  63 /  20  20  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   86  62  87  63 /  20  20  20   0
Russell         85  58  87  60 /  20  20  10   0
Great Bend      83  58  85  60 /  20  20  10   0
Salina          88  61  88  62 /  20  20  10   0
McPherson       86  60  86  61 /  20  20  10   0
Coffeyville     88  61  88  63 /  20  20  20   0
Chanute         88  62  89  64 /  20  20  20   0
Iola            87  62  88  64 /  20  20  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    88  62  88  64 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
430 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-060930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
430 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered storms are possible today through sundown
across much of central, south central, and eastern Kansas. A few
storms could be strong with pea size hail and gusty winds up to 40
mph. The main threat will be heavy rainfall due to slow moving
storms. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additionally, there are chances for hit or miss thunderstorms
across portions of south central and southeast Kansas Tuesday
afternoon. Most of the storm activity will be east of I-135 across
the Flint Hills. The main risk for storms on Tuesday will be locally
heavy rainfall but cannot rule out small hail and gusty winds up to
40 mph. Severe storms are not anticipated.

Chances for thunderstorms may increase Thursday afternoon and into
the weekend across much of the area. While a strong storm is
possible, the risk for organized severe weather appears low. The
main hazard will continue to be locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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