Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
254 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level impulse situated from
southeast NE into northeast KS. Meanwhile, a more robust upper
low is about to come onshore over Southern CA. At the surface, a
weak cold front extends from along the SD/MN border through
Central Nebraska.

Showers and storms are expected to develop over northeast KS this
afternoon associated with the upper impulse. Visible satellite
shows what looks to be an area of convergence from KMHK to south
of KSLN and will be another area of possible development. With
plenty of instability and an uncapped airmass it shouldn't take
much surface convergence to get a storm to develop. With lack of
upper flow, main concern will be heavy rain and small hail.
Current thinking is that southeast KS will keep the higher storm
chances this evening as anything that develops sinks southeast.
Like the last several evenings, should see a general decrease in
coverage after sunset. More widespread storms will develop over
Eastern CO this afternoon and will track east tonight. Confidence
is fairly low on how far east they will make it and based on
trends over the last several days, will stay pretty conservative
with pops for tonight into Wed morning.

For Wed, weak upper impulse over Northeast KS will sink south to
near the MO/KS border for Wed afternoon and will keep storm
chances in for southeast KS. However, still feel the more
widespread activity will be out over the High Plains as the upper
low tracks into the Desert Southwest with some better upper
diffluence spreading into CO/Eastern NM. The main question for
Thu will be how far east the activity that develops over the High
Plains make it along with any MCV type features as the result. For
now will keep the highest pops along our western flank for Thu
into Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

By 12z Fri, what is left of the upper low will be statued over
southern CO/Northern NM with a fairly impressive upper jet moving
into West TX. Right now have the highest confidence in storms Fri
afternoon into the early evening southwest of the forecast area,
tied to the better upper jet dynamics. Some of this activity may
try and get into our forecast area later Fri night and in
addition, both ECMWF and GFS stall out an upper impulse over the
OK/TX Panhandle for Fri night into Sat which will likely keep some
pops around to start the weekend. For late Sat into Sun, upper
high pressure will encompass the Northern Plains with an upper
perturbation extending from northern OK through northern CO and
will allow storm chances to linger through the weekend. With
decent low level moisture remaining in place, unseasonably cool
mid level temps and weak mid/upper flow, feel that for the
weekend into the start of the work week we are looking at more of
the widely scattered storms that develop with the afternoon heat.

Temps look to remain seasonal through these extended periods with
highs generally in the 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

While VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the most part, a
couple of rounds of showers and storms may provide some aviation
concerns over the next 24 hours.

This afternoon, diurnal cu is developing along and east of the
Kansas Turnpike with cigs just above MVFR. Cigs are expected to
hover just around 3,000 feet until the loss of diurnal heating
after 00Z. A few showers and storms are possible east of the
Kansas Turnpike from now through 03Z which may affect locations in
and around KCNU. Meanwhile, a complex of showers and storms across
western Kansas may impact portions of central Kansas (KRSL, KGBD,
and KSLN) after 06Z tonight. Confidence is low these showers and
storms will traverse this far east, but continue to monitor for
updates should the current thinking change.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  65  87  65 /  30  20  20  20
Hutchinson      89  63  87  64 /  20  20  20  30
Newton          88  64  87  65 /  30  20  20  20
ElDorado        86  63  86  64 /  30  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   86  63  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
Russell         91  61  88  62 /  20  20  20  50
Great Bend      89  61  87  63 /  10  20  20  50
Salina          91  65  89  65 /  20  20  20  30
McPherson       89  63  88  64 /  20  20  20  30
Coffeyville     86  63  85  64 /  40  20  20  10
Chanute         86  63  85  64 /  40  40  30  10
Iola            86  63  86  64 /  40  40  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    85  63  85  64 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JC

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