Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low situated over eastern MT
with a trough and associated vort lobe extending down into the
Central/Southern Rockies. At the surface, cold front extends from
Eastern Nebraska to near Great Bend and finally into far
Southwest KS. Meanwhile, dryline extends from south of KHUT down
into Western OK.

Complex setup for this evening as the upper low remains almost
stationary but an upper jet and piece of energy move out of the
Central Rockies and into KS/OK. Confidence remain high that the
dryline/cold front will retreat west as surface low intensifies
over southwest KS late this afternoon and early evening. Main
question still remains if storms can develop early this evening
along the dryline/cold front as it retreats. Currently think the
most likely area for development will be over northeast KS which
will be closer to good upper diffluence due to being closer to
the right entrance region of an upper jet over the
central/northern Plains. Another area to keep an eye on would be
further south over OK where deeper moisture and slightly better
convergence will be situated as winds back this evening. There's
no question that if a storm can develop early this evening, all
modes of severe weather would be possible, with tor potential
increasing as low level jet continues to increase this evening.

Confidence is much higher with storm development tonight as the
cold front surges south and intersects the dryline over northeast
KS and tries to unzip to the southwest. The tough question will
be how far south and southwest do storms make it overnight. Trends
lately have been to limit the southward extent which seems to be
the theme so far this spring. Large hail and downburst winds will
be common with any storms that unzip down the line tonight.

Did go ahead and expand the wind advisory for tonight as the
dryline/cold front look to lift a bit further north and to also
account for strong north winds getting into central KS behind the
front.

Cold front and associated storms will be making their way through
Southeast KS Thu morning with cooler air spilling into the
remainder of the area. By Thu evening, the upper low will be
moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley with one last vort max
moving across the Southern Plains. This will bring west winds and
good downslope conditions Fri that will allow us to reach our full
heating potential as we climb into the mid and upper 60s. Still
looks to be some frost potential Fri morning across central KS we
we fall into the lower 30s and winds go light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Still good model agreement in a secondary surge of cold air
starting Sat morning across the forecast area as the upper low
moves off into the Great Lakes region. Still looks like freezing
temps will be a good bet for both Sat and Sun morning, especially
across central KS. So would not be surprised if freeze warnings
are eventually needed in these locations. Confidence remain high
that below normal temps will remain in place for both Sun and Mon
with highs each day around 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Both ECMWF and GFS are hinting at some rainfall potential for Mon
night into Tue as shortwave energy digs across the Great Basin
resulting in increasing moisture transport across the Plains.
There are some fairly significant differences between the GFS and
ECMWF on the track of the shortwave so confidence remains fairly
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Strong to severe convection possible along a cold front tonight as
it moves across central Kansas and into southeast Kansas toward
dawn. Strong south winds and low level wind shear away from the
convection with strong northwest winds behind the frontal passage
later tonight into early Thursday. Patchy MVFR cigs possible,
especially in and near convection tonight and lower vsbys in rain.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Very high fire danger will be in place Thu across parts of south
central and central KS.

Winds are expected to flip around to the northwest on Thursday
behind the cold front but will remain quite gusty. We are looking
for sustained speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to
30-35 mph. Afternoon RH's are anticipated to be around 15% west of
I-135 Thursday to around 30% over southeast KS. Outdoor burning
is not recommended on Thu afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    54  71  42  65 /  30   0  10  10
Hutchinson      50  69  40  64 /  30   0  10   0
Newton          53  71  41  64 /  40   0  10  10
ElDorado        55  71  43  64 /  40  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   56  72  44  67 /  30  10  10  10
Russell         45  66  34  62 /  30   0  10   0
Great Bend      45  67  36  63 /  30   0  10   0
Salina          49  68  36  64 /  50   0  10   0
McPherson       50  69  39  62 /  40   0  10   0
Coffeyville     60  72  45  67 /  30  40  10  10
Chanute         59  71  45  65 /  40  40  10  10
Iola            59  71  45  64 /  50  40  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    60  72  45  66 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
544 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
544 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Very high grassland fire danger is expected to continue into the
evening hours across south central and southeast Kansas due to
strong south winds.

Storms are expected to develop through 9 pm for areas north of
Highway 400 with hail to golf ball size, 70 mph and a tornado
possible. Storms will then be possible later tonight as the cold
front moves into the area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threat with these storms.

Strong south winds will remain in place this evening across most of
the area and and flip around to the north late tonight. See latest
wind advisory for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few thunderstorms may linger through Thursday morning across
southeast Kansas. The risk for severe storms appears low.

Very high fire danger is possible Thursday and Friday afternoons
across parts of central and south central Kansas.

Freezing temperatures are possible early Saturday morning across
central Kansas and portions of southeast and central Kansas early
Sunday morning.

Periodic storm chances exist Monday and Tuesday next week. Strong
to severe storms are not expected with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may needed across the area this evening into the
overnight hours.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Ketcham

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