Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A mid/upper trough over the Rockies today is progged to translate
eastward over the Northern and Central Plains through tomorrow
night. NAEFS height standardized anomalies are running around -1
standard deviations but this mid/upper trough is progged to become
less vigorous as we move through the short term periods. At the sfc,
a PAC front will become the focus for showers and storms as we move
into the evening hours. Ahead of this front, we may see some
elevated showers as we remain within a mid-lvl waa regime as a
potent pv anomaly rotates into the Northern Plains but the main show
is expected to develop along the advancing PAC front arriving late
across our forecast area. We expect a broad zone of low level
moisture pooling within an area of weak low-level mass convergence
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. The most vigorous storms
are expected to impact central KS mainly west of I-135 where the
best low-level buoyancy is progged after 01-02Z. Elevated storms
will become more likely as we move into the evening hours. Training
of storms along the slow moving boundary may produce some pockets of
heavy rain and ponding or water and/or localized flooding with PWATs
running around 1.4 inches or around the 90th percentile for early
Oct. The most vigorous activity is expected to wane towards midnight
or shortly thereafter although some elevated showers may linger,
especially across southeast KS.

A stable post-frontal regime will begin to build into central KS or
for areas mainly west of the Kansas Turnpike on Wed while some post-
frontal showers and storms may linger across southern and southeast
KS where some subtle large-scale forcing for ascent/mid-level warm
air advection lingers into the day. Drier and more seasonable air
will continue to gradually filter into the region late Wednesday
into early Thursday bringing an end to rain chances across the
region. More Fall-like conditions are expected to arrive late on
Thursday as a trailing cold front ushers in much cooler air across
the area.

Fri...Below normal temperatures will prevail in the wake of the cold
front with highs expected to top out in the low to mid 60s for most
areas on Fri. Sfc high pressure will settle across the area late Fri
night allowing strong radiational cooling across much of the area.
Some areas across our central KS counties may fall into the lower
30s with the threat for frost/freeze increasing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Northwest mid/upper flow is progged to prevail through the period
which typically results in dry weather this time of year.
Temperatures will moderate through the period with mild values
anticipated as we move into early next week. Above normal
temperatures are anticipated with highs climbing into the 80s by
Mon-Tue for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

IFR conditions will be possible due to thunderstorms between 21z and
09z. MVFR conditions will be possible after 12z for sites KICT and
KHUT.

Thunderstorms will be possible area wide this afternoon into
tonight. The best chances for storms will be at sites KRSL, KGBD,
KSLN, and KHUT where IFR visibilities were forecasted. MVFR
conditions will also be possible at sites KHUT and KICT after 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  77  56  79 /  70  20  30  10
Hutchinson      60  75  52  78 /  70  10  20  10
Newton          62  77  54  78 /  70  20  20  10
ElDorado        63  79  56  78 /  70  30  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   65  81  58  81 /  70  40  50  10
Russell         53  75  49  76 /  60   0   0   0
Great Bend      55  73  49  75 /  70  10   0   0
Salina          60  77  52  78 /  70  10  10   0
McPherson       59  75  51  76 /  70  10  10   0
Coffeyville     65  80  62  79 /  70  60  70  20
Chanute         66  79  60  78 /  70  50  60  20
Iola            65  79  59  78 /  70  50  50  20
Parsons-KPPF    65  80  62  80 /  70  60  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CRW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
524 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible along and west of Interstate
135 this evening. Quarter sized hail and 60-70 mph winds are the
main concerns although discrete thunderstorm early this evening may
be capable of producing hail up to the size of golf balls. Ponding
of water and localized flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms will linger Wednesday into early Thursday
morning mainly areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.
These storms are not expected to be strong or severe. Minor
localized flooding may be possible.

Frost is possible across central and portions of south central
Kansas on Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 6 pm for areas west of
Interstate 135.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
458 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

KSZ032-047-032245-
Russell KS-Barton KS-
458 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Russell
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loretta, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Gorham, Milberger, and Russell Airport.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 175 and 189.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9904 3885 9876 3860 9903 3870 9903
      3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 217DEG 44KT 3860 9923

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BAERG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
554 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

KSZ032-032330-
Russell KS-
554 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Russell
County through 630 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Catherine, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paradise and Waldo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9879 3896 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 223DEG 44KT 3896 9924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BAERG