Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

The persistent mid/upper ridge that has been sprawling across the
central CONUS is progged to break down over the weekend as a
mid/upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes area. This will bring
welcomed relief from the recent record breaking heat across the
region.

Tonight-Sat...the latest water vapor imagery was showing a couple of
shortwave troughs rotating around the mid/upper ridge situated over
OK. As these rotate toward the area this evening and tonight,
showers and thunderstorms developing across the Central High Plains
in the vicinity of a southward moving cold may move into central KS
this evening. Other more isolated high-based activity may try to
develop over north central KS. The best potential for showers and
thunderstorms tonight is expected to remain along the I-70 corridor
with less confidence as you move southward. Any of these storms will
be capable of producing strong downburst winds given inverted-v
profiles early in the evening. The front will be forced southward
tonight and is progged to be situated over southern KS on Sat. This
will lead to a wide range of temperatures from north to south across
the area on Sat and a low confidence temperature forecast given
uncertainty in where the frontal boundary will be located. Highs may
struggle to reach 80 over northern KS while upper 90s/near 100 is
possible near the OK state line. Low level moisture pooling in the
wake of the cold front will result in a weakly capped airmass and
with a subtle shortwave trough moving across the area we could see
some widely scattered showers and storms develop across the area on
Sat afternoon and some pops were maintained. We may see some showers
and storms fester over southern KS Sat night as we remain within a
mid-lvl waa regime.

Sun-Mon...Any lingering shower activity is expected to diminish
early on Sun with seasonable temperatures anticipated through the
period. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the upper
80s/around 90

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Seasonable temperatures early in the week are expected to rise as
we move into the latter portion of the week as the mid/upper
ridge returns to the central CONUS. With rising heights/increasing
thickness we expect to see above normal temperatures return to
the area with mostly dry weather conditions anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Concerns:
1) Gusty winds possible this afternoon

2) Showers and storms tonight into early Saturday in NC KS

3) Cold frontal passage this evening through tonight

Another round of breezy winds is occurring for north and south
central Kansas. These winds should again subside this evening. The
challenge becomes the timing of the cold front and convection
along as well as behind it. Highest confidence is for
precipitation to impact north central Kansas specifically KRSL and
KSLN. Timing has been shifted later from the previous forecast
with the highest confidence around 6Z and after. There is a
question in the coverage of the activity as well. This forecast
attempted to fine tune the timing as best as possible based on the
latest guidance. The southern extent is uncertain thus a PROB30
was used for KHUT while left out of KICT. Changes are guaranteed
with the upcoming issuance especially as convective initiation
begins. The cold front will gradually push from northwest to
southeast through the evening into tonight. It is just entering
northwest Kansas currently.

Some models are hinting at IFR cloud cover in north central
Kansas during the AM hours on Saturday while others are holding
the lower values to the west. It was decided to flirt with lower
VFR instead of anything lower for now. Additional chances of
showers and storms are expected later Saturday as well. Stay tuned
for updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  93  68  88 /  20  20  40  30
Hutchinson      72  89  66  88 /  30  20  40  20
Newton          75  90  67  88 /  30  20  40  20
ElDorado        75  92  68  86 /  20  30  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   75  96  69  87 /  20  30  40  30
Russell         69  80  61  87 /  60  30  40  10
Great Bend      69  80  62  84 /  50  30  40  20
Salina          72  86  64  89 /  60  30  30  20
McPherson       72  86  64  87 /  40  20  40  20
Coffeyville     77  95  70  85 /  20  20  30  30
Chanute         76  90  70  84 /  20  20  30  30
Iola            75  90  69  84 /  20  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    77  95  70  86 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...VJP

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