Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...Updated for Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:

Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the area with the
highest chances across portions of south-central Kansas. Main
concern will be damaging wind gusts around 65-75+ mph. General
timing for storms across the area will be from 9PM tonight to 4AM
early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

This morning's severe MCS definitely put a wrench into the forecast
for this afternoon and tonight. The atmosphere across much of
southern Kansas is extremely worked over, and strong subsidence is
present across much of the area behind lingering and persistent
shower and thunderstorm activity across northern Oklahoma. Needless
to say, big changes will need to take place to realize this
evening's severe weather potential. With shower and thunderstorm
activity looking to remain in place across northern Oklahoma through
the afternoon, would hedge on the side of a significant severe MCS
plowing across the entirety of southern Kansas becoming increasingly
less likely. However, several factors of this forecast still need to
be worked out.

The biggest question is exactly how much the atmosphere will
recover by this evening/tonight. While confidence in guidance is low
at this time, it would suggest the axis of highest elevated
instability will be somewhere across southwest Kansas into far south-
central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma extending into east-
central Oklahoma. The mid-level thermal gradient and PWAT axis will
generally be overlapped across the same areas, so the general
thinking is that an MCS will roll off the high plains and
potentially move into portions of south-central Kansas but mainly
stay southwest of the Wichita metro (still cannot rule out severe
weather in Wichita tonight, but the highest confidence is southwest
of the metro). Main hazards will generally be 65-75+ mph wind gusts,
and this activity may impact areas that received significant wind
damage from this morning's activity.

Meanwhile, a potent mid/upper shortwave trough will skate across the
northern plains, and a fairly potent mid/upper jet will likely
support another MCS across the northern half of Kansas tonight as
well. Though with slightly less instability, mostly strong to
marginally severe storms are anticipated with this activity with 55-
65 mph winds being the primarily concern.

After 09Z late tonight, while lingering showers may continue across
the area, robust convection should be south and east of the forecast
area. Much cooler air will be primary headline for Sunday and Monday
with afternoon highs across the area are only expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s. Northwesterly flow aloft will be quite persist
Sunday and Monday as well, and a couple of shortwave impulses within
this flow may be enough to trigger widely scattered showers and
storms across portions of western and southern Kansas both late
Sunday and late Monday nights. Strong to severe storms are not
expected with this activity.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

A slow warming trend will commence on Tuesday with afternoon
temperatures slowly trending closer to normal for this time of year
(generally in the low to mid 90s). Northwest flow aloft appears to
stay quite persistent through much of the weekend. With embedded
shortwave troughs expected to pass over the central plains this
week, periodic chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will remain in the forecast through next weekend. Tuesday
night may be area's next best chances for strong to severe storms,
but details still need to be ironed out over the coming days. Stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Main concern through the TAF period will be chance for severe
storms across central and south central KS and perhaps some
more disorganized leftover storms across southeast KS. Storm
arrivals should be between the 03-06z timeframe, and should depart
majority of the area by 12z. Went ahead and inserted TEMPO groups
at all sites except for KCNU, based on best available guidance.
Severe winds of 65-75+ will be possible, will amend TEMPO winds as
confidence increases for the higher caliber winds. Brief impacts
to cigs and vis can be expected inside storms. Expect VFR
conditions and northerly winds to prevail after sunrise tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  88  65  86 /  70  20  20  10
Hutchinson      68  88  63  86 /  70  10  10  10
Newton          68  87  64  86 /  60  10  10   0
ElDorado        69  88  65  85 /  60  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  89  65  85 /  70  20  30  10
Russell         64  85  61  85 /  70   0  10  10
Great Bend      64  85  61  83 /  70  10  20  10
Salina          68  88  63  87 /  50  10  10   0
McPherson       67  87  63  85 /  60  10  10   0
Coffeyville     71  92  65  87 /  60  30  20  10
Chanute         71  91  65  86 /  50  30  10   0
Iola            70  89  64  85 /  40  30  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  92  65  87 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
914 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-070215-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
914 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Another round of severe storms will be possible tonight. Damaging
winds of 60 to 75 mph, quarter sized hail, and heavy rain will be
the primary threats. Portions of central and south central Kansas
have the greatest chance at seeing severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Lingering isolated showers and storms are possible early Sunday
morning.

Periodic chances for showers and storms are in the forecast from
late Sunday night through Friday. Strong to severe storms are
possible Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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