Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK:

* Isolated to widely scattered storm chances this evening-
  overnight.

* Slight chance of storms eastern KS Sunday PM.

* Building heat Sunday through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT...Watching the possibility for a few
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon over Nebraska and northern KS (which latest satellite
and radar imagery are indicating), with these chances moving south
into the rest of central and eastern KS this evening-overnight.
Weak/subtle forcing from the surface up through the mid-upper
levels along with a weak to non-existent low-level jet raises
questions on coverage and longevity of any activity that can
manage to develop, with the greatest chances generally north of
Highway 54/400. Nevertheless, combination of modest to strong
instability with strong flow aloft for July standards will support
a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Thinking the overall threat will end by
midnight or so.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Another subtle mid-upper wave
approaching from the north amidst a weakly capped to uncapped
airmass may support low thunderstorm chances over eastern KS
during the afternoon-evening. The models are split 50/50 on these
chances, with the GFS, FV3, and NSSL WRF the most bullish, and
actually bring activity as far west as the I-135 corridor. Given
warming mid- level temperatures from the west, will only introduce
slight chances pops Sunday PM generally along/east of the Flint
Hills. If storms can form, combination of instability and deep
layer directional shear would favor a few strong to severe storms.
The heat will begin building Sunday, with afternoon through early
evening heat indices in the mid-upper 90s for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat
Jul 22 2023

Deterministic and ensemble consensus favors the southwest CONUS
upper ridge to build/move east into central and south- central
portions of the county next week. This will favor warmer than
average temperatures. Low-level thickness values support daily
high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s, with dewpoints mostly in
the 60s. This will support daily afternoon through early evening
heat indices around 101-106 degrees for most sites. Consequently,
at this point, forecast heat indices are too marginal for any heat
headlines.

The building ridge should also favor low to NIL thunderstorm
chances next week, especially the first half of the week. By mid-
late week though, the GFS and GEM models do attempt to flatten the
ridge some, with shortwave energy progressing across the northern
CONUS, which would favor at least low storm chances across mainly
the northern half of KS mid-late week. However the ECMWF isn't as
generous in flattening the ridge, favoring a mostly dry forecast.
For now, went with slight chances for storms across central KS
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact
portions of central and eastern Kansas this evening. Weak/subtle
forcing from the surface up through the upper levels along with a
weak to non-existent low-level jet raises questions on coverage
and longevity of this activity as it continues to move slowly
south this evening. For the 00z routine TAF issuance, only
included mention of TS at CNU and SLN.

For Sunday...another subtle upper wave approaching from the north
amidst a weakly capped to uncapped airmass may support low
thunderstorm chances over eastern KS during the afternoon-evening.
Included a PROB30 at CNU to account for these chances. There is an
outside chance isolated storm activity could reach as far west as
ICT Sunday afternoon-evening, but chances appear too low to
mention in the ICT TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  92  71  95 /  20  10  10   0
Hutchinson      66  95  71  97 /  20  10  10   0
Newton          67  94  71  96 /  30  10  10   0
ElDorado        66  92  70  95 /  20  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  91  69  94 /  20  10  10   0
Russell         66  97  71 100 /  40  10  10   0
Great Bend      66  96  70  98 /  40  10  10   0
Salina          67  98  72 100 /  40  10  10   0
McPherson       66  95  71  97 /  30  10  10   0
Coffeyville     67  93  68  97 /  20  20  20   0
Chanute         67  93  69  96 /  40  20  20   0
Iola            66  93  69  96 /  40  20  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  93  68  97 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADK
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-232045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
338 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the
evening, mainly across central and east-central Kansas. The
strongest storms will be capable of hail up to golfball size, and
wind gusts up to around 60 mph. The severe threat should end by
around midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening over eastern Kansas. If activity can manage to develop, a
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

A stretch of hot weather will return this coming week, with
afternoon through early evening heat indices from around 100 to 106
degrees across the area Monday through Friday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms across central and
northern Kansas Thursday night, and again Friday night. The risk
for organized severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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