Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
603 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Currently have northwest upper flow from the Northern Rockies down
through the Central Plains and into the Ozarks. Meanwhile, a broad
upper low stretches from Central Ontario into the Northern Great
Lakes region. At the surface, cold front extends generally along
I-80 across Iowa and Nebraska with high pressure across the
Northern Plains.

Will be a difficult convective forecast today as there will be a
couple different opportunities for development. First, a tight mid
level baroclinic zone will remain across the forecast area with
some decent isentropic lift and convergence along it. Plus, once
you get above 800mb, capping looks minimal. So would not be out of
the question to see some storm development in the next few hours.
Additional storm will be possible this afternoon along a sagging
cold front over northeast KS/north-central MO with this activity
tracking southeast this afternoon. With a great shear profile, any
storm that can develop will have the potential to produce hail.

Some shortwave energy is expected to move out of the Central
Rockies and into Nebraska tonight which is expected to spark an
MCS that will track southeast across northeast KS/northern MO Tue
morning into the early afternoon. The big story for our forecast
area on Tue will be a return of extreme heat. Confidence is high
that heat index values will be in the 105 to 110 range for areas
generally south of I-70. Latest guidance does have the cold front
moving into central KS which may keep the extreme heat out of a
handful of counties. Confidence is high enough at this point to
run with an advisory for Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

There is good model agreement that shortwave energy will track
out of southern Saskatchewan and into the Northern Plains by Wed
morning. This will allow a cold front to sink down into the area
and will bring storm chances to the area for Wed night. These
storm chances will linger into Thu and Thu night as the front
lingers across the forecast area and we also remain in northwest
flow aloft. The better rain chances will push south and west for
Fri through the weekend with the bigger story being much cooler
temps. Highs Fri through the weekend area expected to be in the
80s, with Fri being the coolest of the 3 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Patchy fog will dissipate near SLN near 12Z. Otherwise, decaying
showers aren't expected to impact the terminals. Storm chances
will continue across the entire area through the day but
confidence in timing/location is too low for any mention at this
point. Winds will remain predominately from the east for the
central KS TAF sites and south to southeast for the remaining
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  74 103  74 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      95  74 104  72 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          94  74 103  73 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        94  74 102  74 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   96  74 102  76 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         93  71  99  70 /  20  10   0  10
Great Bend      96  72 102  71 /  20  10   0  10
Salina          93  73  99  71 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       95  73 102  71 /  20  10   0  10
Coffeyville     94  74 101  77 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         93  72 101  75 /  20  20  10   0
Iola            92  71 101  74 /  20  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    94  73 101  77 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ047-050>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...BMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
453 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
453 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few storms will be possible this morning for areas generally along
and north of Highway 400. The stronger storms will be capable of
nickel size hail.

Additional storms will be possible this afternoon for locations
generally along and especially east of Interstate 135. Hail up to
quarter size and 60 mph winds will be possible with the stronger
storms.

Heat index values are expected to climb into the 100 to 103 degree
range this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat index values are expected climb into the 105 to 110 degree
degree range on Tuesday afternoon and early evening. See the latest
heat advisory for additional information.

Storms will remain in the forecast for the Wednesday night through
Friday morning time frame. A few strong to severe storms will be
possible with this activity with hail and high winds the main
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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