Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Wichita, KS

861 
WWUS53 KICT 142005
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSC169-142030-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-230714T2030Z/
Saline KS-
305 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SALINE COUNTY...

At 305 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Solomon, or 7 miles southwest of Abilene, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Gypsum and Kipp. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9737 3893 9738 3892 9738 3891 9737
      3861 9737 3861 9749 3869 9747 3871 9759
      3896 9739 3896 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 258DEG 22KT 3883 9730 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

HAYES

892 
WWUS53 KICT 142012
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
312 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSC169-142021-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-230714T2030Z/
Saline KS-
312 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SALINE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3893 9737 3893 9738 3892 9738 3891 9737
      3861 9737 3861 9749 3869 9747 3871 9759
      3896 9739 3896 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 258DEG 22KT 3884 9725 

$$

HAYES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Ongoing convection across the region, extending across
northeastern Oklahoma at 0700z, is primarily supported by low
level moisture transport. Some of this convection has crept up
into southern Kansas. The main challenge with this is its
evolution through the morning hours.

A number of the 00Z models, especially the NAM, presents
convective development over southern Kansas with a fair amount of
a heavy rainfall threat. (This given precipitable water values
exceeding 130% of normal). That said, the CAMS have trended south
and east and that trend is what I believe we are seeing observed
with the convection in Oklahoma. Therefore, have backed off a
bit on the heavy rainfall threat for Kansas this morning because
of the lack of confidence.

Overall synopsis shows an upper level high over the southwestern
U.S. with more of a zonal fast flow regime over the region. This
will become more meridional during the upcoming week, but will
nonetheless allow for shortwaves in the mean flow to move through
the region, causing semi-regular intervals of precipitation
chances.

Surface analysis at 0700z shows somewhat of a diffuse front
extending from central Iowa into central Nebraska. This will move
south today as one of these shortwaves in the mid and upper
levels moves through. There is enough deep layer shear to justify
severe storm chances this afternoon and evening as the boundary
moves through. This will be mainly a hail/wind threat. Confidence
moderate for precipitation across the forecast area. We are pretty
confident that some of these will be severe.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Main challenges are the heat midweek as well as the precipitation
chances.

After the next shortwave moves through, midlevel heights build,
allowing heat to build back into the region. Midweek temperatures
continue to trend warmer with highs reaching 100 in the forecast
area on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Heat indices remain
below advisory levels with dewpoints forecast in the 60s. However,
confidence is quite low of that continuing. Would not be
surprised to see higher dewpoints given the amount of
evapotranspiration from the corn at maximum and the relatively
moist ground.

The High Plains remains very active through the forecast period.
Given the flow vectors bringing the convection toward the
forecast area, cannot rule out some level of storm threat almost
daily from this flow regime. Pretty high confidence of the active
pattern continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Challenge: Severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening

Thunderstorms have developed ahead of and along the main synoptic
front. This activity has moved into north central Kansas and will
push south through the rest of the afternoon and evening. These
storms could produce winds to 50-60kts as well as hail up to ping
pong ball size. Since the storms are already ongoing, this was
used to approximate timing for both the arrival and exit. Timing
may need to be adjusted and quickened depending on the track of
the complex. The main focus is of course in the next six hours
with much of the activity exiting the state of Kansas by likely 3Z
or so. Cloud cover should clear out for Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  68  90  69 /  50  70  10   0
Hutchinson      90  65  92  67 /  60  70   0   0
Newton          89  66  90  68 /  60  70   0   0
ElDorado        88  66  89  67 /  50  70  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   89  68  90  68 /  40  60  10   0
Russell         91  64  90  65 /  60  40  10  10
Great Bend      91  65  90  65 /  50  50   0  10
Salina          93  66  92  67 /  60  60   0  10
McPherson       89  65  91  67 /  60  70  10   0
Coffeyville     90  69  90  67 /  50  70  10   0
Chanute         89  68  91  67 /  40  60  10   0
Iola            89  67  90  66 /  50  70  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    90  68  90  67 /  40  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...VJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-151715-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices will be near 100 degrees this afternoon across much of
the area.

Severe storms will possible across central Kansas this afternoon
and move southeast across the entire area by this evening. The main
threats with these storms will be quarter sized hail and damaging
wind gusts of 70 to 75 mph. Heavy rainfall can also be expected
which could result in minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices will range from 100 to 105 degrees across much of the
area Monday through Thursday afternoon.

Storm chances will gradually increase during the week as storm
systems move off the High Plains toward central and eastern Kansas.
At this time, widespread severe weather is not expected with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

KC/Ketcham

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
201 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Ellsworth               38.74N 98.22W
07/14/2023  E60 MPH          Ellsworth          KS   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
203 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Great Bend Airport      38.35N 98.85W
07/14/2023  M60 MPH          Barton             KS   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
215 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Ellinwood           38.36N 98.65W
07/14/2023  E70 MPH          Barton             KS   Public

            60 to 70 mph winds.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
218 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Lyons                   38.35N 98.21W
07/14/2023  E70 MPH          Rice               KS   Public

            spotter reports widespread tree damage in
            Lyons.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
222 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 PM     Hail             4 W Ellinwood           38.36N 98.65W
07/14/2023  E1.00 inch       Barton             KS   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Salina Municipal Airpor 38.79N 97.65W
07/14/2023  M60 MPH          Saline             KS   ASOS

&&