Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

The main challenge for the short term will be timing and intensity
of the incoming frontal system tonight and into Wednesday morning.
WAA and ridging are present ahead of this front which will allow
temperatures to reach the mid and upper 90s to close to 100 this
afternoon.  By this evening, the short term ensemble families bring
the frontal boundary into the CWA.  Shower and thunderstorms
activity will become an increasing possibility, through the evening
and overnight starting in Central Kansas along the I-70 corridor.
Instability, and shear look quite good across areas of Central
Kansas indicating a good chance for some of these storms to be
severe.  Shear vectors are close to parallel this evening indicating
the thunderstorm activity will start off as discrete supercells
before transitioning into a MCS/linear mode.  That said, feel that
by the time the thunderstorms arrive in Central Kansas, they will
already be in a linear mode.  Primary threat appears to be winds,
very heavy rain and quarter sized hail.  There is a chance for some
of this thunderstorms activity to reach South Central Kansas tonight
but if any thunderstorms do, it will likely be sub-severe as the
atmosphere in South Central Kansas is not as favorable to severe
weather at this time.

Wednesday morning, the front will be pushing through the remainder
of the CWA.  Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along and
behind the front. Shear and instability over the CWA look good
enough to allow for some strong to severe thunderstorms through the
day.  The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and into the evening.  Areas along and east of the Flint
Hills will have the best chance for the severe weather.  Storm mode
again looks to be more linear indicating the greatest threats will
be winds and very heavy rain with hail being a lower threat.
Temperatures behind the front will be significantly cooler for most
of the CWA with temperatures remaining in the 80s.  Areas of far
Southeast Kansas may reach the 90 or just above depending on the
extent of the cloud cover.

Thursday and Friday look to remain rather active with showers and
thunderstorms likely.  Thursday night and into Friday, some of the
models indicate another short wave with some mid and upper level
support will come through the region.  However, the progged track of
this feature has not been consistent.  As such, confidence with this
is not very good but it also can't be ignored.  This set up will
provide a good chance for another round of showers and
thunderstorms.  Main threat this time appear to be very heavy rain.
Orientation of this feature indicates there could be some training
storms which raises the possibility of localized flooding with this
activity.  Severe weather is also a possibility but the atmospheric
conditions for this look to remain to the west of the CWA for the
most part.  Areas along the Oklahoma/Kansas State line appear to
have a better chance for the heavy rain with some strong
thunderstorms.  Will need to see more consistency with the short
term ensembles before confidence can improve for this possibility.
Temperatures for Thursday and Friday appear to remain below normal
for this time of year with the expected dense cloud cover and rain
potential.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

The extended range will remain rather active with a deep trough over
the Great Lakes and ridge over the Intermountain West.  This will
keep the mid and upper level flow over the CWA out of the northwest
and low level flow out of the south and southeast.  This will
provide ample moisture for the series of mid level short waves
expected to push through the region.  This will keep the
precipitation chances rather high through the extended range.
Temperatures through this period are expected to warm up but may not
get much above normal if at all with the consistent rain threat
currently expected. Confidence in the extended range remains low as
the ensembles are not in agreement and have different solutions at
this time.  Will need to see future forecast cycles before
confidence can improve.

Metzger&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

A line of strong to severe convection is expected to develop along
a southward moving cold front late this evening and overnight.
This front and convection looks to affect the I-70 corridor of
central Kansas close to midnight. This is where the highest
confidence exists to maintain mention of TSRA with visibility
restrictions and gusty winds. As the front and associated storm
driven outflow moves south toward southern Kansas early Wednesday
morning, confidence on coverage and intensity of showers and
storms is somewhat lower. So have only VCSH for now in the
terminals. Post frontal MVFR cigs are expected to affect portions
of central Kansas early Wednesday morning as well.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

An active 24 hours is expected across the area.

Currently thunderstorms are being monitored about 30 miles
northwest of KCNU, and while impacts to the site are not expected
at this time, will continue to monitor trends, and an amendment
may be necessary.

Also monitoring storms across north-central Kansas that are about
50 miles north and east of KRSL. Current thinking is that it will
take another handful of hours for storms to reach this site (and
subsequently KGBD and KSLN). Main concerns will be 60 to 70 mph
winds and up to quarter size hail when thunderstorms begin
affecting these site. This will be accompanied by a dramatic
reduction in vis and cig cats. Storms will generally move slowly
south and east through the overnight hours, and will lose their
intensity after 09Z. It's possible thunderstorm may impact KHUT
and KICT during the overnight hours, but chances remain low at
this time.

Additional chances for showers and storms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening for KHUT, KICT and KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  87  64  81 /  20  40  60  30
Hutchinson      69  84  61  82 /  30  40  50  20
Newton          69  86  61  82 /  40  40  50  20
ElDorado        70  88  62  81 /  30  40  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   71  92  65  80 /  10  30  60  30
Russell         65  76  58  80 /  70  30  40  20
Great Bend      67  77  59  79 /  50  30  40  20
Salina          68  81  60  83 /  70  40  40  10
McPherson       68  83  59  81 /  50  40  50  20
Coffeyville     72  92  67  83 /  30  50  60  30
Chanute         72  90  65  82 /  40  60  60  30
Iola            71  89  64  82 /  50  60  60  30
Parsons-KPPF    72  90  66  83 /  30  50  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...JC

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