Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
714 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

* Thunderstorm and severe weather chances this evening over southern
  Kansas.

* Triple digit heat Wednesday--Friday.

* Modest cool down into the 80s-90s for the weekend.

* Shower/thunderstorm chances Friday night--Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Challenging forecast this evening, with the potential for severe
thunderstorms over southern Kansas, although chances are not looking
as favorable as previously expected. Airmass remains capped to
surface-based parcels across much of the region, thanks to
widespread morning convection across portions of Kansas and
Oklahoma. The instability axis remains well south-southwest-west of
the forecast area, where heating and especially boundary layer
moisture is greatest. However with time, this instability axis
will inch closer north this evening, increasing the potential for
severe weather tracking east-southeast across southern KS.

We're confident that thunderstorm activity will get going across the
High Plains this afternoon into the early evening, and gradually
congeal into one or more forward-propagating complexes given decent
DCAPE values. Strong instability and impressive deep layer shear
values for late June standards will favor higher-end severe weather
potential, especially over southwest Kansas and northern Oklahoma,
with the main threats 70-85+ mph winds and large hail.

Questions arise on how far east this higher-end activity will reach,
given warming mid-level temperatures and instability dropping off
with eastward extent. As the instability axis inches closer from
the south amidst a strengthening low-level jet, thinking higher-
end severe winds of 60-80+ could reach as far east as I-135 and
north to around Highway 54/400. Hail size will likely drop off
with eastward extent with the mature MCS. Further east over
southeast Kansas, thinking the MCS will lose some steam due to the
warmer mid-level temperatures and instability dropping off, but
could still see 50-65 mph winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Summer heat is the main message for Wednesday--Friday, with high
temperatures soaring into the 90s and 100s. Fortunately, dewpoints
will fall as well, and there will be some wind, which will give some
relief. Still, heat indices 100-105 degrees are possible areawide.
Given questions on convective outflow over mainly southeast Kansas,
may hold off on issuing a heat advisory, but am still evaluating.

A cold frontal zone is expected to progress south through the region
this weekend, supporting a modest cool down into the 80s-90s, along
with chances for showers/thunderstorms. Thinking the greatest
precipitation chances at this point will be Friday night through
Saturday night. Gusty south to southwest winds will develop across
the area on Wednesday

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

A complex of storms developing over the Southern High Plains will
eventually propagate eastward across southern Kansas later this
evening with increasing probabilities for damaging winds impacting
areas near the OK state line. IFR/MVFR will be likely within the
line of storms but VFR is expected to prevail in it's wake. Breezy
west to southwest winds will develop across the area on Wednesday
with VFR prevailing although plenty of high cloudiness will linger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73 103  75 102 /  70  10  10   0
Hutchinson      72 100  73 101 /  60  10  10   0
Newton          73 101  74 102 /  50  10  10   0
ElDorado        74 102  75 102 /  60  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   74 107  76 103 /  80  10  10   0
Russell         68  98  70  99 /  30  10  20   0
Great Bend      69  99  71  99 /  40  10  20   0
Salina          71  99  73 101 /  30  10  10   0
McPherson       72 100  72 101 /  40  10  10   0
Coffeyville     75 103  77 105 /  70  10  10   0
Chanute         75 102  78 105 /  60  10  10   0
Iola            74 101  77 104 /  60  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    75 103  77 105 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ049-052-053-
070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADK
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
425 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-282130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
425 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A thunderstorm complex is expected to race east to southeast this
evening across far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. The
primary threats will be damaging winds of 60 to 85 mph and quarter
size hail, especially across south-central Kansas south of Highway
54 400, and west of I-135. An isolated brief tornado cannot be
ruled out as well. The severe weather threat should diminish some as
storms continue moving east into southeast Kansas later tonight,
although 60 to 70 mph winds will remain possible. The time frame for
storms tonight is roughly 8pm through 2am.

Heavy rain associated with the thunderstorm complex may lead to
minor localized flooding across southern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Afternoon heat indices up to around 105 degrees are expected
Wednesday through Friday across the area.

A few storms are possible across central and north-central Kansas
Wednesday evening. Severe weather is not expected.

Off-and-on chances for storms exist across the area from Thursday
night through Monday, with the highest chances Friday evening
through Saturday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible, along with locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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