Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

The first round of severe weather is done for the TN Valley this
evening, however another round will move through overnight. The
warm front now stretches from north MS down into Central AL just
south of the CWA and into GA. We will see if the approaching
shortwave is able to lift it northward at all overnight. Where it
ends up is important. The cluster of storms currently up along
the MO/AR border will slip southeast overnight and dive into the
TN Valley as an MCS. It will then track along the warm front.
These storms will be able to produce strong to damaging winds,
heavy rainfall, hail and a tornado. The greatest threat for a
tornado will be along and south of the warm front.

Our timing for the overnight/Thursday morning severe weather
across the TN Valley is:
Northwest AL: 1-3am
North Central AL: 2-4am
Northeast AL: 3-5am

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

As the aforementioned upper shortwave progresses over the region,
a surface low will continue to scoot eastward over the Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valley. The cold front associated with this low is
then slated to move over the local area through the day on
Thursday. Models indicate that the bulk of the shear will decrease
through the day, although instability will persist. As stated
above, timing with the second system has not changed, with the
majority of the severe weather forecast to decrease through mid-
morning (8-9 AM). Although, thunderstorm activity will likely
persist through the rest of the day but remain sub-severe. The
main concern for the afternoon will therefore be flooding, as
showers and storms will continue to be efficient rainfall
producers due to persistent elevated moisture.

A series of upper shortwaves along with a lingering surface
boundary will keep at least low to medium (15-40%) chances of
showers and storms in the forecast through Saturday. However,
these are expected to be sub-severe. High temperatures will hover
around the mid 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

The unsettled pattern is likely to continue into early next week
as a surface low develops over the Mississippi Valley and
northeastward up into the Ohio Valley. Low to medium (20-50%) chances
of showers and storms are forecast, especially during the day
both Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will remain in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s
during this time. Precipitation chances then look to decrease
into midweek as surface high pressure builds into the region after
frontal passage. At this time, guidance indicates that slightly
cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) could take hold by this
time as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

A convective complex will move in from the WNW, with impacts at
KMSL after 06Z. Have VCTS to cover a broad convection potential,
with an TEMP with CIG/VSBY reductions to IFR, briefly lower from
very heavy rains, fog and erratic gusty winds. This activity
should reach KHSV 1-2 hours later. Convection should continue
into the predawn as the storms progress eastward. Most models were
showing drier air filtering across the area in the late morning
and early afternoon, so have ended rain chances and returned
minimums to VFR before noon. SE-S winds early in the TAF, should
slowly veer to the SW-W after daybreak, and westerly in the
afternoon at 5-10kt. Winds should become light after sunset this
evening. There is a risk of fog forming late in the TAF, however
not enough confidence to add it at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
933 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sylvania                34.56N 85.81W
08/09/2023                   DeKalb             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down at 281 Industrial Lane in
            Sylvania.

&&

DGD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
938 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Section           34.58N 86.00W
08/09/2023                   Jackson            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down in the 3500 block of CR 265
            in Section.

&&

DGD

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
940 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Florence          34.81N 87.68W
08/09/2023                   Lauderdale         AL   Broadcast Media

            Large tree snapped.

0342 PM     Flood            2 ESE Florence          34.82N 87.63W
08/09/2023                   Lauderdale         AL   Broadcast Media

            3-4 inches of water across East Huntsville
            Road in Florence.

0359 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Rogersville       34.81N 87.24W
08/09/2023                   Lauderdale         AL   Broadcast Media

            Tree blown down across U.S. 72 west of the
            Elk River Bridge.

0406 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Athens              34.73N 86.96W
08/09/2023                   Limestone          AL   Emergency Mngr

            Powerlines and transformer down.

0521 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Section           34.58N 86.00W
08/09/2023                   Jackson            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down in the 3500 block of CR 265
            in Section.

0522 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Dutton            34.62N 85.92W
08/09/2023                   Jackson            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down across CR 380 in Dutton.

0537 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Mentone           34.58N 85.59W
08/09/2023                   DeKalb             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down across CR 89 near Mentone.

0542 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sylvania                34.56N 85.81W
08/09/2023                   DeKalb             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree blown down at 281 Industrial Lane in
            Sylvania.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
102 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

ALZ001>003-100700-
Lauderdale AL-Franklin AL-Colbert AL-
102 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lauderdale, Colbert
and northwestern Franklin Counties through 200 AM CDT...

At 102 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Olive Hill to near Blue Mountain. Movement
was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Muscle Shoals, Sheffield, Tuscumbia, Red Bay, Killen,
Cherokee, Lexington, St. Florian and Underwood-Petersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8721 3496 8721 3438 8816 3489 8810
      3492 8816 3501 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 281DEG 46KT 3527 8797 3460 8909

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GH

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