Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Overall, the forecast and timing has not changed too much. Hi-Res
guidance indicates that the first round of showers and storms
will persist into this evening, likely ending around 7-8 PM. All
modes of severe weather will be possible - damaging winds, hail,
and tornadoes. A lull in severe weather activity is then
anticipated through from mid to late evening before another
potential round later tonight (around 12-1 AM).

An upper shortwave is forecast to traverse the Tennessee Valley
overnight into early Thursday morning, along with a surface warm
front which will continue to advance north overnight. Instability
will be plentiful, with models suggesting values ranging between
2500-3500 J/kg. Shear will continue to be abundant as well, with
between 55-65 knots of bulk shear over the entire local area.
Model 700-500mb lapse rates range between 6-7 C/km along with 0-1
km SRH between 200-250 m2/s2 or so. Storm mode looks to be in the
form of a QLCS moving from northwest to southeast over the region.
Overall, all modes of severe weather will again be possible with
this second round of severe weather tonight (damaging winds, hail,
and tornadoes). Furthermore, with PWATs at or over 2 inches,
storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Flash flooding will
be an additional concern tonight, especially for areas that
receive heavy rain this afternoon and for storms that move over
the same locations. As was stated earlier, please make sure to be
weather aware this evening and overnight and have multiple ways to
receive warnings (especially ones that will wake you up)!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

As the aforementioned upper shortwave progresses over the region,
a surface low will continue to scoot eastward over the Mississippi
and lower Ohio Valley. The cold front associated with this low is
then slated to move over the local area through the day on
Thursday. Models indicate that the bulk of the shear will decrease
through the day, although instability will persist. As stated
above, timing with the second system has not changed, with the
majority of the severe weather forecast to decrease through mid-
morning (8-9 AM). Although, thunderstorm activity will likely
persist through the rest of the day but remain sub-severe. The
main concern for the afternoon will therefore be flooding, as
showers and storms will continue to be efficient rainfall
producers due to persistent elevated moisture.

A series of upper shortwaves along with a lingering surface
boundary will keep at least low to medium (15-40%) chances of
showers and storms in the forecast through Saturday. However,
these are expected to be sub-severe. High temperatures will hover
around the mid 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

The unsettled pattern is likely to continue into early next week
as a surface low develops over the Mississippi Valley and
northeastward up into the Ohio Valley. Low to medium (20-50%) chances
of showers and storms are forecast, especially during the day
both Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will remain in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s
during this time. Precipitation chances then look to decrease
into midweek as surface high pressure builds into the region after
frontal passage. At this time, guidance indicates that slightly
cooler temperatures (mid to upper 80s) could take hold by this
time as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

An active day of weather is expected across the Tennessee Valley
as multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA are forecast to impact the region,
resulting in localized MVFR/IFR conditions due to reduced
visibilities and ceilings mid/late afternoon/evening and again
late tonight into early Thursday morning. The MVFR conditions will
continue through Thursday morning and into the afternoon due to
low ceilings and -SHRA. AWWs and amendments are likely during the
aforementioned windows when storms impact the TAF sites.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP

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