Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1246 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

A shortwave entering middle TN into AL early this evening will
exit to the east overnight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
and showers should diminish and dissipate fairly quickly after
sunset. Lower stratus is forecast to develop with the moist
southeast low level flow overnight. This should keep overnight
lows on the mild side in the lower 60s for most spots, and
possibly upper 50s in a few.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

A minor upper ridge will shift east into the area on Friday, but
the low level wave in MS will remain somewhat intact, enhancing
low level convergence over MS into far western AL. This is where
chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist again on Friday.

A trough advancing southeast into the Great Lakes and lower MO
valley will bring a cold front with it into the OH Valley through
the Ozarks and Ouachita Mtns by Friday evening into the overnight.
Eventually,, multiple MCS clusters along this front will arrive in
TN into northern MS Saturday morning, and eventually through the
central TN valley including our forecast area during the day
Saturday. There will be 25-35kt of low to mid-level westerly flow,
so bulk shear may allow for storm organization and possibly a few
strong to severe cells.

The trough and front will exit the area allowing for a dry and
seasonable Saturday night through Sunday, with lows in the 50s and
highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

The region will be in a weak north to northwest flow pattern
between the split jet fields next week. This will keep stronger
troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast/east central U.S.
Rain chances will be much more limited, especially with a low
level and persistent ridge axis across the eastern U.S. This may
keep a drier and rather stable easterly flow component going for
several days. We will keep slight chances of afternoon showers or
perhaps a thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday, then dry. Wouldn't be
surprised if we are dry all of those days however, especially if
the ECMWF is correct.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023

VFR flight weather conditions are expected this afternoon outside
of TSRA activity for most areas west of K4A6-K4A9, including KHSV
and KMSL. However, MVFR ceilings below 030agl may persist at times
in northeast AL. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected
this afternoon into early evening, which may yield temporary IFR
or MVFR conditions due to lower visibility in RA or +RA. After the
SHRA and TSRA dissipate ~01-03Z, lower ceilings are expected to
develop in the 015-025agl range (MVFR), and eventually below
010agl (IFR) by 13-14Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
412 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

ALZ005>007-182200-
Madison AL-Morgan AL-Limestone AL-
412 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Madison, southeastern Limestone and central Morgan Counties through
500 PM CDT...

At 412 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Triana, or 10 miles southwest of Redstone Arsenal, moving northwest
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Madison, Redstone Arsenal, Priceville, Triana, Huntsville
International Airport, Somerville, Mooresville, Valhermoso Springs
and Florette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 8657 3435 8680 3458 8701 3472 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 146DEG 10KT 3450 8674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
414 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

ALZ004-005-182200-
Lawrence AL-Limestone AL-
414 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Limestone and northeastern Lawrence Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Courtland, or 12 miles north of Moulton, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Town Creek, Courtland, North Courtland, Hillsboro, Coxey, Chalybeate
Springs, Red Bank, Wheeler, Caddo and Ripley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8708 3468 8710 3457 8711 3451 8731
      3475 8743 3476 8741 3478 8732 3476 8731
      3475 8727 3476 8726 3478 8728 3480 8725
      3482 8712
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 163DEG 9KT 3466 8722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
416 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

ALZ004-182200-
Lawrence AL-
416 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lawrence County through 500 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moulton, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moulton, Speake, Bankhead National Forest, Caddo and Wren.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8739 3452 8731 3458 8711 3450 8710
      3450 8711 3430 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 010DEG 6KT 3441 8721

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMP

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