Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
820 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 820 AN CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

The Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory has been allowed to
expire. A broken line of strong/severe tstms is now moving
eastward across the central TN Valley. The main threats with these
storms are damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all
of the area thru 2AM, although it is a bit uncertain if a second
wave of tstms will develop behind this pre-frontal band later
this evening. If little convective activity redevelops along the
front itself, the Watch may be cancelled early. Until then, expect
this first line of tstms to continue for another couple of hrs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Models continue to bring much cooler and drier air into the
Tennessee Valley region behind the front during the morning hours on
Tuesday. This makes sense based on the temperatures currently near
and behind the front this morning over Oklahoma and further
northwest.

Highs may only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations,
which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal temperatures for that time of
year (normal highs 91 degrees Fahrenheit). A crisp morning with cold
air advection continuing is expected. Temperatures are expected to
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak on Wednesday, which
is around 10 degrees below normal (normal lows around 70 degrees
Fahrenheit).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Fairly amplified northwest flow will continue, but the atmosphere
remains very dry. A carbon copy of conditions look to be in store on
Wednesday and Wednesday night as well, as strong cold air advection
continues.

Temperatures should start to warmup up slightly on Thursday ahead of
a weak/dry frontal boundary approaching from the NW. This should be
aided by some weak southwesterly low level flow.

As we go into the weekend, high pressure remains over the eastern
CONUS with the center of the high entrenched more over the the Ohio
Valley. Some easterly return flow around the surface and upper level
ridge should bring more moisture into the area. This should allow
lows to climb back into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs should climb
back into the lower 90s.

This heat continues to build into early next week, as the upper
level ridge strengthens and shifts southward towards the Tennessee
Valley. This will likely make for a very hot period and possibly
another heat wave as we go into the early/mid part of next week.
Highs could top 100 degrees at some point given model trends of
strengthening the upper ridge to around 600 decameters just to our
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

VFR conditions will prevail until lower VIS and CIGs are ushered
into the terminal areas by a line of showers and storms this
evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be strong to
severe. Additionally, some gusty winds up to around 20 knots are
possible this evening. Anticipating VFR conditions to return to
both sites through early Tuesday morning after the storms move
through and any fog dissipates. Westerly winds will also
eventually shift to be northwesterly as a cold front moves
through, with sustained winds around 10 knots and gusts to between
15-20 knots by late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1057 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

ALZ004>007-150430-
Lawrence AL-Madison AL-Morgan AL-Limestone AL-
1057 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Madison, southern Limestone, northwestern Morgan and northeastern
Lawrence Counties through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1056 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tanner, or 7 miles north of Decatur, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Huntsville, Decatur, Madison, Athens, Redstone Arsenal,
Trinity, Harvest, Tanner, Huntsville International Airport and Belle
Mina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8665 3459 8712 3476 8720 3488 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 256DEG 31KT 3468 8704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1106 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

TNZ076-096-097-150430-
Franklin TN-Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
1106 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Moore, Lincoln and
northwestern Franklin Counties through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1106 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles north of Petersburg to 10 miles east of
Pulaski. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Lynchburg, Petersburg, Tims Ford Lake, Howell, Hurdlow,
Mimosa, Smithland, Coldwater and Kelso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8628 3538 8625 3537 8627 3534 8624
      3533 8620 3536 8615 3505 8642 3507 8683
      3525 8683 3525 8675 3531 8668 3533 8660
      3537 8660 3536 8649 3533 8646 3532 8642
      3535 8641 3536 8633 3541 8629 3541 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 264DEG 40KT 3543 8663 3518 8685

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

ALZ004-005-150445-
Lawrence AL-Limestone AL-
1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Limestone
and northeastern Lawrence Counties through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rogersville, or 14 miles west of Athens, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Elkmont, Cartwright, Coxey, Cairo and Ripley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8701 3482 8689 3465 8726 3476 8733
      3477 8732 3475 8729 3476 8727 3478 8728
      3481 8722 3484 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 241DEG 29KT 3475 8721

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1119 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

ALZ006-009-150500-
Madison AL-Jackson AL-
1119 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Jackson
and central Madison Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northwestern Huntsville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Madison, Moores Mill, Redstone Arsenal, Gurley, Alabama A
And M University, Marshall Space Flight Center, University Of Alabama
In Huntsville, New Market and Maysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central and northeastern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8666 3474 8672 3496 8634 3476 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 242DEG 30KT 3472 8661

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

26