Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1231 AM PST Sun Mar 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into the
following evening. This rainfall will continue to aid in snow
melt for elevations below 5000 feet. Rivers and Streams, in our
CWA, continue to see increased river flows and flooding due to
recent storm activity. The next system will bring a chance of
moderate to heavy rain and high elevation snow Monday night into
Wednesday which will pose additional flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest radar imagery shows moderate to heavy rain near Three
Rivers gradually weakening. Latest high resolution guidance shows
decreasing activity overnight, although a few showers or an
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The next chance for
convection occurs by this afternoon, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms return once again. Guidance suggests weak upper-
level ridging while subtropical moisture pushes northward for this
afternoon, so it appears chances will be limited to mainly Fresno
County northward. Most of our region will get a brief break from
Sunday night until Monday morning, and the next system arrives by
Monday evening. However, the mountain areas will likely get
showers continuing on Sunday night into Monday as another
shortwave trough moves in ahead of the main system.

Precipitation will begin Monday night and will increase in
intensity overnight into Tuesday with this next system. Another
plume of deep subtropical moisture will arrive late Monday
night/early Tuesday morning and remain in our area into at least
Tuesday night when the bulk of the precipitation will occur.
Timing of the arrival of this deeper moisture has been delayed a
bit with the latest model runs, so it appears the arrival will
mainly be late Monday night rather than Monday afternoon. Chances
for rain and high elevation snow will last until Wednesday.
Additional remaining snow on the ground in the lower elevations
will continue to melt. The latest precipitation amounts are about
one to two inches in the San Joaquin Valley, except around 0.50 to
1.00 inch in Kern County. Sierra foothill amounts vary from 1.50
to 5.00 inches, with the highest amounts from Mariposa County to
around Three Rivers in Tulare County. Sierra Nevada rainfall will
range from around three to six inches at elevations up to around
7,000 feet. The probability for the corresponding amounts of rain
range from around 40 to 70 percent. Heavy snow will once again
fall above 7,000 feet, so the Winter Storm Warning will continue
until Wednesday. Expect a total of 2-4 feet of snow in the Sierra
Nevada for the 7000 to 8000 foot level, 4-6 feet at 8000 to 9000
feet, and 6-9 feet above 9000 feet from Monday evening until
Wednesday. The probabilities are around 50 to 70 percent for these
totals.

Relatively cool and unsettled conditions will continue into late
next week, though we could get a break for Thursday. Another
system arrives on Friday, and chances for precipitation will last
into the following weekend. It does not appear we will receive
nearly as much precipitation at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

The San Joaquin Valley can see continued MFVR conditions with rain
showers and possibly IFR conditions in mountains due to heavier
possible precipitation in the form of thunderstorms until 03Z
Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the
central California interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for CAZ300>336.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ323-326>331.

&&

BSO

weather.gov/hanford

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
1151 AM PDT Sun Mar 12 2023

CAZ317-318-323-325-326-121915-
San Joaquin River Canyon CA-Mariposa-Madera Lower Sierra CA-
Yosemite NP outside of the valley CA-Mariposa Madera Foothills CA-
Upper San Joaquin River CA-
1151 AM PDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...A thunderstorm will impact portions of central Mariposa,
northeastern Madera and northeastern Fresno Counties through 1215 PM
PDT...

At 1149 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm near
Oakhurst, or 10 miles southwest of Yosemite South Entrance, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Heavy rain could cause additional
         flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Yosemite South Entrance, Oakhurst, Clover Meadow Wilderness Office,
Metcalf Gap, Mariposa Grove, Batterson, Green Mtn, Bass Lake Ranger
District, Buck Camp Ranger Station, Chilkoot Meadow, Fish Camp,
Graveyard Meadow, Poison Ridge and Ahwahnee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 11904 3727 11977 3740 11984 3773 11924
      3771 11922 3773 11920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 238DEG 19KT 3737 11972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
158 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2023

CAZ317-318-122145-
Mariposa-Madera Lower Sierra CA-Mariposa Madera Foothills CA-
158 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Mariposa and southwestern Tuolumne Counties through 245 PM PDT...

At 157 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Grange, or 21 miles south of Sonora, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Mariposa and southwestern Tuolumne Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 12012 3767 12005 3762 12037 3768 12040
      3769 12039 3765 12033 3767 12031 3772 12035
      3774 12028 3773 12026 3776 12024 3776 12020
      3780 12017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 246DEG 18KT 3767 12038

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT SUN MAR 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     FLOOD            5 NNE AUBERRY           37.15N 119.45W
03/12/2023                   MADERA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP REPORTS REDINGER LAKE RD IS WASHED OUT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
253 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2023

CAZ300>303-122230-
Los Banos - Dos Palos CA-Merced - Madera - Mendota CA-Planada -
Le Grand - Snelling CA-West Side Mountains north of 198 CA-
253 PM PDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Madera,
central Merced and western Fresno Counties through 330 PM PDT...

At 252 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Los Banos to 11 miles west of South Dos
Palos. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Merced, Los Banos, Firebaugh, South Dos Palos, Dos Palos and San Luis
National Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 12041 3683 12044 3684 12087 3721 12085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 259DEG 18KT 3715 12083 3692 12084

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
302 PM PDT SUN MAR 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 WNW LOS BANOS         37.07N 120.87W
03/12/2023                   MERCED             CA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

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