Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Water vapor imagery shows a diffuse short wave making its way toward
the area from scntl Tx. Whether it has enough oomph to contribute
for an isolated tstm to develop around the metro area in the next
few hours remains to be seen, but some of the HREF members have
picked up on such a scenario (with HRRR being somewhat consistent).

Otherwise, attention turns to the north early this evening. Outflow
from MCS to our N/NE is draped close to ne parts of our CWA and
extends northwestward toward the metroplex. Strong daytime heating
will likely re-initiate storms focusing on this feature late in the
day. These storms will likely consolidate into another organized
complex and sag sse into our area this evening and overnight.
Thinking is that this organization will likely occur just before
reaching our CWA...making damaging winds the primary threat. Of
note, there's >10% threat of some wind gusts at/above 75mph across
some of our northern counties...very roughly from College Station-
Livingston. Hail will also be a threat...and tornadoes a non-zero
threat...both of which would be more favorable with any of the more
discrete cells in the Enhanced Outlook area defined by SPC. Just how
far south the more intense storms make it tonight before weakening
is debatable, but instability should be on the wane as time passes.
That said, folks generally north of a Galveston-Columbus line should
keep updated with the latest wx this evening into the overnight
hours.

Precip should be over well before sunrise Sunday. Mid-upper ridging
will continue to build/strengthen from our west. Increasing heights
and a low level sw flow will be favorable for rising temperatures
with high temps peaking in the mid 90s inland and near 90 at the
beaches. We should see dewpoints mix out somewhat in the afternoon,
but still anticipate heat indices in the 103-106 range. Increased
subsidence and H85 temps 20-24C (east-to-west) should keep storm
chances on the very low side. However, might need to keep an eye on
the Piney Woods late in the day/evening. Some guidance depicts a
weak shortwave riding eastward across some of our extreme
northern counties & this will be the location where if capping can
be overcome...that'll be the spot. Have some token 20%'ers in
there for now just to keep some mentionable POPs. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Forecast for Monday and onwards looks to be relatively unchanged, as
ridging across the Southern Plains/Mexico aims to bring a prolonged
period of hot, above normal temperatures. Multiple shortwaves/upper
level disturbances passing to the north should flatten the ridge
during portions of next week. The first of these being an upper
level low over the Great Lakes area, which looks to develop a
diffuse frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex region early in the
week. Simultaneously, another (weaker) upper level trough over the
Four Corners region will aims to develop a surface trough/low closer
to Central TX.

While moisture will be abundant, robust subsidence from the
aforementioned ridge should greatly suppress rain chances. 500mb
heights should peak around 590-592 dam over SE Texas for this
upcoming week with 850mb temperatures in the range of 21-26C. NAEFS
Mean 850mb temperatures are still progged to exceed the 99th
percentile throughout most of the work week, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. The aforementioned Four Corners trough digs
through the Southern Plains on Wednesday. While this feature may
bring increased cloud cover, it also looks to bring southwesterly
flow at 850mb, which may further enhance afternoon heating. During
the second half of the work week, the upper level ridge should
amplify, with global ensembles showing prolonged, above normal
temperatures through Friday and beyond the scope of this forecast.

In short, Southeast Texas is about to enter a prolonged period of
hot conditions. Daytime highs will threaten to break triple digits,
especially during the second half of the week. Heat advisories will
likely be needed throughout this time frame as peak heat indicies
are expected to exceeding 105F. Those with outdoor plans should be
wary of the temperatures and practice heat safety. Stay hydrated and
limit strenuous outdoor activities whenever possible. Watch for
signs of heat-related illnesses (in pets too!) and look before your
lock your car.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Not planning on a lot of changes from the previous TAF package as we
appear to be on track for a line of strong/severe thunderstorms mov-
ing into our northern terminals in a few hours. Models continue with
keeping the storms mainly across the northern 2/3rds of the area un-
til just after midnight or so. In the wake of these rains, MVFR CIGs
and VIS will be possible through sunrise (especially at/near locales
that get a bunch of rain). VFR conditions should prevail by tomorrow
afternoon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds are expected to strengthen later
tonight, warranting the need for caution flags. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms should push off the coast later tonight, bringing
higher winds and seas into early Sunday morning. Advisories may be
needed by Tuesday as winds approach 20 knots and seas rise to 4 to 5
feet. Strengthened onshore flow may also bring a higher risk of rip
currents by mid week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  72  95  74  97 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)			  74  96  75  98 /  70   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)			  79  90  80  89 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 AM CDT Sunday through
     Sunday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...41
MARINE...03

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