Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Today's weak frontal boundary is currently positioned over the
northern half of our CWA, with showers/thunderstorms ongoing over
this area. These showers/storms should propagate southward later
this afternoon, increasing in coverage as peak heating occurs.
Cooling aloft from an upper level trough/cutoff low over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley has further aided in destabilization, with
SPC Mesoscale analysis showing 1500-2500 J/KG of ML CAPE across SE
Texas. Meager amounts of shear will greatly inhibit the strength of
these storms, but ample instability will still put most of SE Texas
under a marginal (level 1/5) threat of severe weather this
afternoon. The strongest of these storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

The weak frontal boundary should stall out along the coastline this
evening with rain chances waning overnight, especially inland. Lows
should be in the upper 60s/upper 70s. With today's rainfall and
cooler ground conditions, portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area may see patchy fog develop during the early morning hours of
Tuesday. Slightly cooler/drier air should should filter into SE
Texas tomorrow, decreasing cloud cover and bringing highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s for Tuesday. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms
will be possible throughout the day, though activity should be
mostly confined to areas along the coastline. Lows for Tuesday night
should be a tad cooler, but still generally in the 60s/70s across
the region.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

We'll be situated in somewhat of a weakness aloft in the midweek
period...generally between a ridge centered over Baja and a trof
over the Great Lakes/Midwest. PW's will be a bit lower than they
have been the past few days (generally in the 1.5-1.8" range
south of the US-59/I-69 corridor). This should still be enough to
get some scattered, mainly diurnally driven activity to develop
there...more isolated further north where moisture availability
will be lower.

Later in the week and into the weekend, a mid-upper trof will dig
southward down western parts of the country. This should allow
for ridging to transition back northeastward from Mexico, across
east Texas and into the Great Lakes as it current trof departs to
the east. In addition to warmer temps, the resulting subsidence
will make it tougher for rainfall development. Exception will probably
be offshore and closer to the beaches where we'll see a fairly persistent
easterly fetch of moisture streaming across the northern periphery
of a surface trof located in the southern Gulf. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Generally east to west oriented SHRA/TSRA complex will continue making
its way to the coast and offshore early this evening. Gusty winds (been
up to 40 knots so far), locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, MVFR
ceilings and IFR visibilities will be possible at LBX and GLS. Other
TAF sites will be clearing out with just cirrus overnight. Could see
some patchy MVFR fog develop at some inland spots too. Tomorrow should
see less SHRA/TSRA development (will go with VCSH for now from IAH
southward.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Light winds and low seas are anticipated the next several days. A
weak frontal boundary will be in the process of washing out across
the area, though this feature, along with the seabreeze, could
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development at times this
evening into Tuesday. Winds variable/higher and rough seas in and
near any storms. Winds will trend more toward an east northeast
direction toward midweek in association with a surface trough of
low pressure situated near the Yucatan. With a lengthening fetch
of moderate winds, look for seas to climb into the 3 to 5 foot
range heading into the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  72  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)			  74  91  73  93 /  40  20  20  30
Galveston (GLS)			  77  87  78  89 /  30  30  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Navasota           30.38N 96.07W
09/25/2023                   Grimes             TX   Broadcast Media

            A metal roof was blown off of a house in
            Navasota. Time estimated based on radar.

&&

Cady

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW South Houston     29.68N 95.27W
09/25/2023                   Harris             TX   NWS Employee

            Large tree limb downed near the Niles Street
            and Meridian Street intersection.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

TXZ226-236-237-336-337-436-437-260045-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Matagorda TX-Inland Matagorda TX-
Wharton TX-Matagorda Islands TX-Brazoria Islands TX-
Coastal Brazoria TX-
720 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON...SOUTHERN
BRAZORIA AND NORTHEASTERN MATAGORDA COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near San Luis Pass to near Sweeny to Bay City.
Movement was south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Jackson, Angleton, Bay City, Freeport, Clute, West Columbia,
Sweeny, Surfside Beach, Richwood, Brazoria, Jones Creek, Danbury,
Oyster Creek, Holiday Lakes, Bailey's Prairie, Sargent, Wild Peach
Village, Markham, Van Vleck, and Wadsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2883 9613 2911 9607 2918 9569 2924 9518
      2889 9510 2888 9512 2887 9517 2881 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 351DEG 20KT 2903 9517 2900 9568 2900 9598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cady

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
748 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

TXZ226-235-260115-
Wharton TX-Inland Jackson TX-
748 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON AND CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ganado, or 11 miles northeast of Edna, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edna, Ganado, Cordele, and Lake Texana Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2919 9667 2919 9647 2888 9640 2886 9671
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 357DEG 18KT 2912 9657

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Cady

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
757 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ENE Texas City        29.42N 94.89W
09/25/2023  M45 MPH          Galveston          TX   Mesonet

            Marine thunderstorm wind gust occurred at
            the Levee WeatherFlow site.

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     16 E San Leon           29.45N 94.67W
09/25/2023  M50 MPH          Galveston          TX   Mesonet

            Marine thunderstorm wind gust occurred at
            ONeil Road.

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 E Texas City          29.42N 94.89W
09/25/2023  M52 MPH          Galveston          TX   Mesonet

            Marine thunderstorm wind gust occurred at
            the Houston Kiteboard Club.

&&