Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
217 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Just ahead of the mid/upper disturbance approaching from the west,
we are seeing scattered strong thunderstorms developing. As the
disturbance moves across later this aft and eve, the atmosphere will
further destabilize which will set the stage for at least isolated
severe thunderstorms, especially near and west of I-45. Expecting
thunderstorms to dissipate mid-eve in the 8-10pm window.

Will see less thunderstorm activity tomorrow aft with more
subsidence to overcome and the lack of a mid/upper level
disturbance. Daytime heating will likely produce isolated convection
mid-late aft across the eastern half of the area. It will be warmer
tomorrow, with max temps reaching the mid 90s for inland areas.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

On Saturday, an upper level ridge over the Southern Plains should
flatten as a midlevel shortwave slides across the state. Forecast
soundings show weak capping and elevated instability, particularly
during the afternoon/evening hours. While the main shortwave trough
is expected to move through northern TX/Oklahoma, weaker impulses
sliding through the ridge could be sufficient to overcome the cap,
bringing isolated to scatted storms. This environment will also
features steep lapse rates (in excess of 7 Deg C/km), high
instability (MU CAPE > 2500 J/kg) and low shear (0-6km shear near 24
knots). SPC currently has areas north of I-10 under a marginal
(level 1/5) risk of severe weather, with the northern fringes of our
CWA under a slight (level 2/5) risk. Steep low level lapse rates and
inverted V-esq forecast soundings suggest that the primary hazard
will be damaging winds, though hail cannot be completely ruled out
either.

Sunday and onwards looks relatively unchanged. Ridging rebuilds
across the Southern Plains, with increasing subsidence aiming to
suppress rain chances through the rest of the forecast period. A
pseudo omega pattern very briefly develops across the CONUS Sunday
night, with this features later drifting E/ENE in the days
following. While the upper level flow over Texas becomes more zonal,
the subtropical ridge over Mexico should persist. 500mb heights will
remain near 591 dam for most of next week. 850mb temperatures also
rise to around 21-25C by Wednesday, with NAEFS Mean 850mb
temperatures still expected to exceed the 99th throughout most of
the work week. 850mb winds also veer southwesterly for Wednesday
afternoon, which may further enhance heating.

The main takeaway is that next week will be very hot. Daytime highs
will threaten to break triple digits with peak heat indicies likely
exceeding 105F. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is anticipating
a heat wave spanning across parts of the South-central and
Southeastern CONUS, placing these areas under a Moderate (level 2/3)
risk of Excessive Heat throughout the upcoming work week. Those with
outdoor plans should be wary of the temperatures and practice heat
safety. Stay hydrated and limit strenuous outdoor activities
whenever possible.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Starting to see thunderstorms develop between UTS and CLL. The
atmosphere will be very unstable this afternoon, so expecting
at least SCT TSRA in a couple of hours, some strong and/or severe
TSRA are possible, especially near CLL. Will have a TEMPO to TSRA
this aft for inland TAF sites. Convection will propagate to the
SE and last until early eve.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Light, sea breeze-land breeze driven winds and low seas will prevail
through tonight. Winds become W/SW on Friday, shifting S/SE and
strengthening over the weekend while seas gradually rise to 3 to 4
feet. Rain chances dwindle on Sunday with dry weather prevailing
into next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  69  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)			  72  95  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)			  77  89  80  88 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...03

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