Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are blessing
us with their presence today as the outer fringes of what was once
Tropical Storm Harold push copious amounts of moisture into
southeast Texas. Unfortunately, not everyone will receive a shower
or storm. However, some of you are receiving welcomed downpours.
Temperature wise, conditions are technically cooler though
humidity is certainly higher. We shall see if Bush airport can tie
2011's record for most consecutive 100+ days. The airport has
been one of the lucky spots to receive rain which could allow 2011
to keep its crown. It will be close!

Most of Harold's rains have remained south of our region thanks to a
strong and large mid/upper ridge of high pressure centered over
Missouri. This ridge will push southward tomorrow, increasing
mid/upper pressure heights over southeast Texas. Wednesday PoPs
are not zero, despite increased ridging, due to weak mid-level
westward propagating vort maxes that may add just enough lift to
allow for some shower or thunderstorm development in association
with the sea breeze. But the increased ridging is expected to
greatly suppress our rain chances. Therefore, only slight PoPs
(10-20 percent) are indicated with the best chance being near the
coast. As to be expected with increased ridging, temperatures are
likely to be hotter tomorrow. Most inland areas are expected to
heat into the triple digits (mid/upper 90s near the coast). Most
of the CWA is under a Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon due to
heat index values peaking 108-111F. Actual temperatures in our
northeasternmost counties are forecast to peak around 105F with
heat index values possibly exceeding 113F. Therefore, an Excessive
Warning has been issued for our northeastern CWA.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Ridging generally centered across OK & north Tx will maintain our
100+ degree wx into the weekend. Thurs is looking quite toasty with
elevated H85 temps. The ridge transitions a bit further toward the
Desert Southwest later this weekend into early next week and
slightly weaken. Locally, heights will fall and high temps should be
a touch lower. The somewhat optimistic news is that, while still not
great, the mid/upper levels shouldn't be quite as hostile for
isolated precip development. Maybe a few locations might be able to
take o and we may be able to take advantage of some upper impulses
riding around the periphery of the ridge or possibly a nearby
diffuse frontal boundary early next week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Forecast remains on track from the previous package as winds
are expected to taper off further over the next few hours,
remaining light and variable overnight. VFR conditions should
generally prevail, although there is a chance for some patchy fog
development in typically prone locations given the scattered
rainfall that occurred earlier today. Otherwise, no cig concerns
are expected and ESE to SE winds will reach around 10 knots
tomorrow afternoon.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

TS Warnings will be replaced with Small Craft Advisories into the
evening and possibly overnight hours as winds/seas continue to
subside. Improving conditions along the beaches as well, so don't
see the need to extend the rip statement beyond tonight as surf
lowers. Much better marine conditions for the remainder of the week
with a weak gradient in place. Will likely see a landbreeze
seabreeze circulation develop on a daily basis. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Conditions are expected to become hotter and drier on Wednesday
and Thursday. In addition, there is plenty of fuel due to very dry
vegetation. However, winds tomorrow and Thursday will be much
lighter than today. Therefore, we have held off extending Red Flag
Warnings into Wednesday for now. However, we will carefully
monitor the fire weather situation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  77 103  78 106 /   0  10   0  20
Houston (IAH)			  81 102  81 105 /   0  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)			  84  94  81  97 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-164-178-179-
     200-437.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for
     TXZ163-164-178-179-200.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ176-177-195>199-
     210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436-438-439.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ350.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370.

&&

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47