Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Today is International Cat Day...now just hear meow-t...this is an
opportunity that I just HAVE to pounce on! This heat is not kitten
around as today will make Day 10 in our heat alert (Excessive Heat
Warning and/or Heat Advisory) streak. This is now our third double
digit streak of heat alerts over the past few months (19 days in
June and 16 days in July), so this summer will definitely be un-fur-
gettable. Although the midlevel high ("heatdome") will be directly
overhead today, it'll be a tad bit weaker. In addition to that, we
have some upper level clouds already moving in from North TX this
meow-ning as a shortwave generates a MCS that'll ride around the
ridge. Unfortunately, we won't catch the tail end of any of that
rain, but all of the previous mentions add up to today's
temperatures being a degree or so lower than Monday's. Expect highs
in the 100-105°F range with heat index values ranging from 108-
114°F. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
remain in effect through this evening.

This is the purr-fect opportunity to mention that a couple of
counties were downgraded from an Excessive Heat Warning to a Heat
Advisory for this afternoon, and there's a paw-ssibility for
additional downgrades on Wednesday as we knock off another degree or
two off of the daytime highs. We won't exactly be feline fine though
as temperatures north of I-10 will still climb well into the 100s.
Wednesday will feature a shortwave trough moving across the Four
Corners region generating a sfc low near the TX/OK panhandles (lee
cyclogenesis). This will tighten the pressure gradient leading to a
breezier day alongside temporarily kneading out the ridge aloft.
That not only elevates fire weather conditions even further, but
should also help keep temperatures down by a degree or so. Still
anticipating highs in the 100-104°F range for Wednesday with heat
index values around the 107-112°F range, so you can expect at least
a Heat Advisory to be in effect.

Now let's paws for a moment and talk about Aggieland once again.
Monday was a hiss-toric day for them as they set
one...oops...scratch that...TWO daily temperature records (106°F
breaks the record of 105°F from 1988; record high minimum
temperature at 84°F ties 1899), tied for the most consecutive days
of 100+°F temperatures (30 days), and moved up to the top spot for
most consecutive days of 105+°F temperatures (8 days). The previous
top spot for most consecutive 100+°F days belonged to a 30 day
streak from 1998, but that'll belong to 2023 by this afternoon as
that streak hits 31 days. These stats are purr-tty ap-paw-ling...and
as you can probably guess, this 30 day period (July 9-August 7) is
the warmest on record for College Station. It'll be interesting to
see if College Station can claw at extending the 105+°F streak today
as it'll depend on how long the upper level clouds stick around.

With heat alerts remaining in effect for today and additional
advisories/warnings likely being needed throughout the week, please
continue to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs
of heat related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, check on your family/friends/neighbors, drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before
you lock your vehicle. Don't forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Upper ridging remains firmly in control thru the period as will
the unseasonably hot, dry wx. Heights may drop a touch Thurs-Fri
as a shortwave tracks ese across the Central/Southern Plains
toward the Tennessee Valley, but they climb right back up to
present levels this weekend into early next week. Think NBM POPs
are a bit too optimistic for inland areas (even at 20-30%) early
next week so nudged them down some. Probably could've taken the
mention out all together...but will let the later shifts have that
honor if need be. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

VFR conditions currently across SE TX. Winds will turn S-SE this
afternoon and evening with speeds ranging between 08-14 KTS with
gusts of around 18-24 KTS. Winds will turn S-SW and relax to less
than 10 KTS overnight into Wed morning. There is a chance for
MVFR cigs overnight into early Wed morning (BKN015-BKN025), and
are expected to lift and scatter out by around 14-15Z. S winds at
10-15 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS can be expected Wed.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Gradient will be a bit tighter into Thurs & moderate onshore flow
will prevail. Speeds are currently bordering caution criteria
offshore, and suspect we'll probably need to dust off the caution
flags tonight and again Wed and Thurs nights as they'll probably
be a bit higher during the typical diurnal speed maximums
offshore. High risk of rip currents will remain in effect til 1pm
& will await the morning beach patrol observations to decide
whether it needs to be extended or not.  47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

With very hot and dry conditions continuing to persist, fuels will
continue to range from dry to critically dry across Southeast Texas.
RH values in the afternoon hours will bottom out in the 25-40% range
across the area with the driest values in the Brazos Valley.
Southerly winds will increase to around 15 mph this afternoon along
with occasional gusts near 20 mph on top of the Brazos Valley where
RH values will be around 25-30%. As a result, a Red Flag Warning
will go into effect this afternoon from Colorado County and
northward up to Brazos County.

Winds on Wednesday will be a bit breezier, so anticipating another
Red Flag Warning for at least our northern counties. Extreme caution
should be taken if working outdoors with any flammable materials.
Please keep in mind that majority of the counties in Southeast Texas
are under a burn ban, so be sure to follow your local ordinances.
Forecast fire danger from the Texas A&M Forest Service remains at
high to very high for most of the region through midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  80 104  81 105 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)			  82 102  83 103 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)			  84  92  85  92 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>212.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ195>197-210-
     211.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ213-214-226-227-
     235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...24
MARINE...47