Wind Advisory 13, NWS Honolulu, HI

671 
WWHW70 PHFO 060045
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
245 PM HST Fri May 5 2023



HIZ015>018-026-027-042-043-045>047-050>052-054-060145-
/O.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-230506T0400Z/
Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-
Big Island Interior-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-
Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-
Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island South-
Big Island Southeast-Big Island North-
245 PM HST Fri May 5 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The threat for strong winds has diminished.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
310 AM HST Fri May 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy easterly trades are here to stay,
potentially through early next week as high pressure remains
positioned to the north. The best chance for showers will favor
the typical windward and mauka locations overnight through the
early morning hours each day as pockets of moisture move through.
Trades will gradually ease around the midweek time frame as a cold
front passes to the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the gusty easterly
trades holding through early next week as strong high pressure
remains anchored to the north. The upper low and surface trough
that are supporting the thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles
west of Kauai this morning will continue to drift westward and
away from the area through the weekend. Mostly stable and dry
conditions will be the result, with the best chance for showers
favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the
morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Peak wind
speeds in the typically windier locations will hover around the
wind advisory threshold of 30 mph over the next couple of days.

For the extended period (Tuesday night-Friday), guidance remains
in decent agreement and depicts the ridge weakening as an upper
trough and its attendant cold front pass to the north. If this
materializes, the gradient will weaken and allow the trades to
relax beginning around Wednesday, then enough for a land and sea
breeze regime to become established by Thursday. Although
confidence in the details remain low this far out in time, the
tail end of the aforementioned front passing to the north is
projected to hangup north of the state through this time. This
pattern transition would result in mostly dry conditions
prevailing, except for afternoon showers that manage to develop
over leeward areas or where sea breezes form.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure to the north will maintain locally strong trade
winds into the weekend. Clouds and showers will be focused over
the windward slopes with this pattern, leading to some brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.

The locally strong trades continue to produce mechanical
turbulence to the lee of the mountains of all islands. As a
result AIRMET Tango remains in place, and is expected to continue
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the state will keep strong to near Gale
force trade winds blowing through at least Saturday. A Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all coastal waters
through 6 PM Saturday. This SCA will likely need to be extended
for a large chunk of the marine area through the weekend and
potentially through early next week. A front approaching from the
northwest may ease the trade winds around the middle of next week.

The current long-period south swell will gradually decline over
the next few days, however a small reinforcement arriving today
will help keep south shore surf elevated into early next week.
Surf should drop below the summertime average along south facing
shores Tuesday through Thursday.

The current small northwest swell will continue to fade out
today, with minimal surf then expected through the middle of next
week. A new small medium period northwest swell could give north
shore surf a slight boost Thursday.

East shore surf should remain elevated and near seasonal levels
through early next week due to the strong trades over and upstream
of the islands. A small decline in east shore surf is possible
Wednesday and Thursday if the trades ease up as indicated by the
latest model guidance.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka-
Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island
Interior-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-
Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Jelsema