Gale Warning 7, NWS Honolulu, HI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1002 AM HST Mon Nov 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will push showers mainly across windward areas
through today. Strengthening northeasterly winds will drive a
front down the island chain tonight and Tuesday, bringing a
period of increased clouds and showers. A cool and relatively dry
air mass will move over the islands after the front passes. Expect
gradually diminishing trade winds and warmer conditions by the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy trade winds today will strengthen tonight as a
weak frontal boundary pushes through the island chain. A Wind
Advisory is currently in effect for portions of Maui and Hawaii
Counties through tonight and will likely be extended into Tuesday
with the afternoon forecast package. The front will bring
increasing showers tonight and Tuesday morning with a focus in
rainfall over the windward and mountain areas while leeward
locations can expect cloudy conditions and passing showers.
Significant rainfall totals are not expected, but the rain and
wind will create poor visibility and bring slippery roads to the
Tuesday morning commute.

As the front passes through tomorrow, expect windy and relatively
dry and cooler conditions to fill in behind the front. This will
create a brief time period where conditions will approach critical
fire weather criteria. However, at this time it looks like there
will be enough moisture behind the front to mitigate widespread
fire weather conditions.

Breezy trade winds look to continue through Wednesday before
gradually diminishing to moderate trade winds by Friday. Limited
showers will focus over the windward and mountain areas. Over the
weekend, models are indicating the possibility of a front
approaching from the northwest. This scenario will turn island
winds from the south over the weekend, bringing increasing
humidity for the entire state and increasing chances for rain over
Kauai and Oahu Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue today, then
strengthen to strong levels for most areas tonight through Tuesday
as a front moves through the area from the northeast. VFR
conditions will prevail at most locations today with only passing
showers and clouds favoring north through east sections of the
islands. As the front moves through the islands tonight through
early Tuesday, a band of low clouds and showers will lead to more
widespread MVFR conditions with mountain obscuration for most
windward areas. These MVFR conditions will then gradually improve
during the day on Tuesday, with winds remaining strong.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level moderate turbulence
over and downwind of the mountains on all islands due to breezy
trade winds. This will continue through at least mid-week. Although
no additional AIRMETs are in effect at this time, it is likely
that AIRMET Sierra will be needed for mountain obscuration tonight
as the front moves into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong surface high pressure far north of the area will remain
nearly stationary over the next few days, keeping fresh to locally
strong trade winds over the nearshore waters. A surge of strong
to locally gale force easterly winds will increase speeds across
all local waters as a cold front pushes down the island chain
Monday night into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for all coastal waters zones through Tuesday afternoon,
except for the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels which are now
under a Gale Watch this evening through Tuesday afternoon. The SCA
will likely need to be extended through at least Wednesday as the
trades remain strong and a northeast swell helps to keep wave
heights above 10 feet. Trades look to weaken slightly into the
moderate to locally strong range for Thursday and Friday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and elevated
through the forecast period. Strengthening trades, coinciding with
a large, short-period northeast (040 degrees) swell will likely
push east shore surf to High Surf Advisory levels early Tuesday
through Wednesday. The trade wind and northeast swell combo will
also wrap into exposed north-facing shores, bumping up surf there
as well. In addition, this could lead to moderate surges in harbors
such as Hilo and Kahului during this time. However, the angle of
the northeast swell may have enough of an easterly component to
prevent significantly unsafe conditions for Kahului Harbor, so the
buoys will be closely monitored as the event unfolds.

A small, medium-period northwest swell will hold through today,
then decline through mid-week. No significant northwest swells are
expected thereafter, until a small, long-period northwest swell
is slated to arrive late Friday.

Small, mainly background south swell energy is expected through
middle of next week. A small, long-period south swell could boost
south shore surf from Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of dry air and strong winds behind a passing
front will bring a small window of possibility for hazardous fire
weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. However, forecast relative
humidities (RH) remain above criteria at this time. We will
monitor conditions closely.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-
Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-
Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-
South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island
North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-
Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

Gale Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through Tuesday afternoon
for Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

&&

DISCUSSION...Morrison
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...TS