Beach Hazards Statement 5, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1139 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers are possible through this evening as a front
crosses the area, but these will quickly dissipate around
sunset. Generally dry west northwest flow is expected through
much of the next week, with temperatures trending cooler. A
series of fronts will cross the area with scattered showers. The
coolest air arrives midweek with temperatures struggling to get
out of the 50s during the day and falling into the 30s
overnight in places.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1140 PM Update... Another round of normal, minor updates. At
this hour, showers along a cold front are tracking into the mtns
and CT Riv Valley. These will track across the forecast area
through the next several hours with a wind shift to follow.

805 PM Update... Just the normal run of tweaks to the ongoing
near term forecast, mainly for skies and PoP (and to remove
thunder) with shower activity waning this evening. Looking to
upstream radar, more showers along a cold front are crossing the
Saint Lawrence River... with a few of these tracking across New
England overnight.

Previously...
Morning showers provided mostly sunny skies for the afternoon.
A cu field has taken its place, with a few taking advantage of
daytime instability to bring some potential rumbles of thunder
through late aftn.

These will continue for much of the central and northern CWA
before dissipating this evening. Another passing shower or two
cannot be ruled out later tonight as a cold front passes
overhead. Much of the sfc instability will have waned, but
elevated instability may still support a shower or rumble of
thunder late across the mountains.

Overnight lows in southern NH and coastal/interior ME will be
quite mild, with some only bottoming in the upper 50s or around
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fresh dry air aloft will be tapped Saturday morning leading to
a gusty, dry day at the surface. The main concern will be of the
fire weather sort. These are detailed in the dedicated section
below.

Skies are expected to be mostly sunny through the morning, with
partly cloudy skies over the mountains. Temperatures should be
just a bit cooler than today, but still rise rapidly in the
morning. With jet rounding base of low moving north of Maine,
there will be plenty of wind aloft that could be brought to sfc.
As a result of sfc heating and cool air aloft, mixing height
will easily reach elevated winds of around 30 to 40 kt. This
would translate to 25-30 mph at the surface, with a few gusts to
35 mph.

Higher terrain would likely see higher gusts, and it would be a
blustery day for summit hikes. Combined with the cooler air
aloft, wind chill values below freezing will be attainable at
higher summits in the Whites vs. 60s at trailhead, so layer up
if hiking!

Winds slacken in the evening, but should still remain breezy
with lows dropping into the 30s in the mountains and 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: The extended forecast remains largely unchanged across
the region. Trofing dominates the pattern...with several cold
fronts forecast to cross the area. Precip changes look mostly
scattered at best...with temps remaining near normal.

Impacts: Spring in New England...fire and ice. Conditions will
remain mostly dry with periods of low RH and gusty winds
supporting elevated fire weather conditions...especially Mon.
Also some shots of cooler air and high pressure may support
temps falling into the 30s at night and frost in areas with an
active growing season. Especially midweek.

Forecast Details: High pressure will be building to our
southwest Sun...but a reinforcing front will cross the area
late Sun into Mon. MOS guidance is now forecasting temps falling
into the 20s and 30s for most of the area...as high pressure
noses into western zones. The areas most at risk for cold temps
and frost would be the CT River Valley and Monadnock
Region...though that could expand if high pressure is able to
make more of a foothold to the northeast.

This is followed in rapid succession by a
cold front late Mon...but the main effect will be to increase
west winds ahead of that boundary. So with gusty winds expected
and temps once more climbing into the 70s thanks to
compressional warming...RH values should drop below 25 percent
again. It will be another day similar to Sat for fire weather
conditions.

Aside from scattered showers with the frontal passage...
conditions will turn cooler midweek. Temps on average will be
near to below normal. Guidance is forecasting a large high
pressure settling over the Northeast mid to late week...along
with mid level temps in the single digits below zero. This is
supportive of temps falling into the 30s...possibly well into
the 30s...and frost. With most of the forecast area active in
the growing season some headlines are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR. SHRA will be passing by AUG and HIE this
evening, perhaps RKD later. Gusty NW winds to 30 kt will be
possible Saturday, lightening Sat evening.

Long Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected. Surface wind
gusts near 25 to 30 kt for all terminals Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Below SCA conditions expected. A few gusts to 25
kt will be possible Sat afternoon in the bays/harbors, but
lighter gusts are expected further out on the coastal waters.

Long Term...Near SCA conditions are possible Mon behind a
secondary cold front. Gusts near 25 kt possible both 25 nm out
and nearshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With only a few reports of a tenth of an inch of QPF this
morning in the mountains, wetting rains today are unlikely
outside of a brief downpour in evening showers. Saturday will
bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions as winds
increase in the morning 15 to 20 mph with some gusts to 35 mph
during the afternoon. At the same time, deep mixing with cool,
dry air aloft will promote low RH values around 20 to 25 percent
from southern and central NH through interior and central Maine.

A similar setup is in store Sunday, but winds may be lighter.
Additional dry and windy conditions continue into early next
week with little sign of wetting rains for the CWA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
FIRE WEATHER...Cornwell/Legro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
332 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-131945-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Coastal Rockingham-
332 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

On Saturday warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This
combined with northwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions.

A very similar set of weather conditions is expected again on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ012-018>022-033-NHZ001>013-015-131945-
Southern Oxford-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-
Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Interior Cumberland Highlands-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
332 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

On Saturday warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This
combined with northwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions.

A very similar set of weather conditions is expected again on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-013-014-131945-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-
Southern Somerset-
332 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, west
central Maine and western Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-131945-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
332 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.