Wind Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

437 
WWUS72 KGSP 251704
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1204 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-260000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230126T0000Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
1204 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of the mountains of North Carolina above 3500 
  feet in elevation.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

491 
WWUS72 KGSP 252351
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-260100-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230126T0000Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
651 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

While wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will remain possible this 
evening, mainly across the higher elevations, this is below Wind 
Advisory criteria, and the advisory is being allowed to expire on 
time. 

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
354 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A round of rainfall arrives today and continues throughout the day,
followed by some brief snow showers in the higher elevations
Thursday morning. High pressure dominates the pattern through the
first part of the weekend, before a more active pattern sets up for
Sunday and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 326 AM EST: Still waiting for the atmosphere to catch up
with the forecast at this early hour, but there are indications
that isentropic lift was finally becoming more productive across
north GA as precip has been increasing in coverage over the past
hour or so. Meanwhile, light precip moving past the NC mountains
has been minimal, so perhaps only trace amounts of wintry precip
would have fallen after all. At any rate, sfc wet bulb temps have
climbed substantially through increased low level warm advection
as the southerly flow at 850 mb begins to impact the NC mtns. Now
only the nrn mountains have wet bulbs supportive of freezing
rain potential, but even that still seems minimal in the face of
such strong warm advection through daybreak. No surprises thus
far with winter precip means we will ride on with no Winter Wx
Advisory. Winds have been gradually picking up across the higher
terrain, but nothing out of the ordinary thus far on any of the
observations. Model guidance still shows a screaming low level jet
on the order of 70kt at 850 mb translating east across the mtns this
morning thru early afternoon. Ordinarily in strong warm advection
flows, the strong wind gusts do not reach the valley floors and
suspect this one will be similar, but we cannot rule out some very
strong wind gusts across the peaks. Things being what they are,
the course of least regret is to issue a Wind Advisory for the
high elevations. Otherwise, still expect most of the fcst area to
be covered by showers by daybreak, with perhaps the exception of
the I-77 corridor. Temps may warm a bit even as developing light
precip locks in a cool pool/in-situ wedge east of the mtns.

The plan for today seems to be largely intact. Deep forcing and
moisture ahead of a strong cold front will bring widespread rain
and a few embedded thunderstorms across the fcst area through the
late afternoon. With that, we have a myriad of 'almost-hazards'
to deal with. Shear will be outrageous of course, as evidenced by
very large elongated hodographs. Yet, the model guidance fails
to capitalize with almost no sfc-based CAPE except for a small
bit seen in the NAM after the best shear and forcing has moved
to the east late in the day. This is a good thing. Assuming our
in-situ wedge holds, the lack of instability will save us from
trouble. The 00Z HREF remains most unimpressed as are the various
CAMs, with no rotating updrafts in the model solutions across the
GSP fcst area. We concur with the trend of the SPC Day 1 Outlook
in keeping the Marginal/Slight to our southeast. All that being
said, the forcing and shear are so strong, that a brief severe wind
producing QLCS cannot be completely ruled out across the southeast
fringe of the fcst area. The fast movement of the system will
limit rainfall at any location, minimizing the flood threat. The
in-situ wedge will effectively modulate the high temps and keep
a gradient along I-85. The main front will sweep eastward in the
late afternoon and early evening carrying the precip along with it.

For tonight, cold air filters in behind the front and an upslope
flow of moisture begins after sunset. However, the rapid movement of
the upper low off to the northeast will keep the flow more westerly
than usual, which is not generally very productive for snow on the
TN border. Precip chances climb back to the chance range by late
evening near the TN border and stay there into Thursday afternoon,
and with cold air in place, that means snow showers. Amounts look
sub-advisory for the time being, and so we let the forecast speak
for itself for the time being. The fairly broad low amplitude
troffing keeps temps from dropping much below climo tonight and
again on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday: As the cold front continues to move
eastward, drier air will move into the area with colder air in the
mountains. Guidance indicates temperatures will continue to cool
below freezing as more CAA moves into the region. Dry conditions
will begin to settle in again Thursday night and extend into Friday.
Surface high pressure will develop across the Gulf of Mexico and
expand northward into the southern portion of the CONUS. By Friday
morning, the front and low pressure system should be far from the
CWA, reducing winds across the area. Temperatures behind the front
will continue to be closer to the January normals, with overnight
temperatures plummeting into the 20s on Thursday night into Friday
morning. By Friday night and into the weekend, flow aloft will
become more quasi-zonal and high pressure continues across the
southern CONUS. The start of the weekend will remain quiet and dry
as the surface high pressure extends across the south and moves
eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday: Another pattern change comes along Sunday as
multiple upper shortwaves extends a broad region of baroclinity
extending from Texas across the southern states. Swaths of DPVA
enhanced by these shortwaves broaden across the south as well. Ahead
of this area, southwesterly surface flow brings in moisture to the
area along with moisture aloft. Meanwhile, across the central plains
and extending across the Ohio Valley, a large surface frontal
boundary surges south and southeast, as CAA envelopes the central
part of the CONUS. This forcing mechanism could help trigger the
widespread precipitation event on Sunday into Monday, though
accumulations at this time are not expected to be high. Guidance has
temperatures well above freezing during Sunday and into the
overnight hours, keeping the likely precip type as rain given.
Timing and precipitation amounts will likely change as new guidance
comes in over the next few days. After Monday, zonal flow returns
and surface high pressure extends from the central plains, leaving
the area dry once again through mid week. Guidance does hint at
another possible precipitation event by Wednesday, though confidence
is low at the present time. Daytime temperatures should remain mild
for the extent of this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A developing low cloud MVFR ceiling on the
srn fringe of the fcst area was poised to develop/move northward
over the next 1-3 hours, and faster than expected over the CLT
metro area, in spite of the leading precip still being several
hours upstream. The guidance does not appear to be handling the
trends particularly well, so we fly by the seat of our pants. We
may see more variable ceiling through the pre-dawn hours until
the precip finally moves into the region from the southwest. The
arrival of the main precip should lock in an IFR or LIFR ceiling
for the better part of the day until the main front crosses the
region in the late afternoon. Winds are a tough call today because
of the interplay between a weak cold air damming front in the I-85
corridor and the arrival of a strong cold front, while a screaming
low level jet streak passes overhead. LLWS is the safe bet at
least from daybreak thru mid-afternoon, even if the 50-70kt SSW
winds stay at 3-5k feet. The core of the strong winds should pass
to the east with the main front. Expect only a slow improvement
behind the front as it takes some time for the low level flow to
veer around to westerly and to clear out the low cloudiness.

Outlook: Restrictions should clear out Wednesday night, with dry
high pressure returning for the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 1 PM EST this afternoon
     for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
530 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-252230-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
530 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Light rain will arrive after midnight while some pockets of freezing
temperatures remain in parts of the mountains and foothills. As a
result, some light freezing rain will be possible before daybreak,
mainly along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Any ice accumulation
should be isolated and localized.

Winds will increase across the ridgetops and mountain peaks in the
pre-dawn hours, with a few wind gusts around 40 mph possible
beginning around daybreak.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Occasional strong wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible through
Wednesday afternoon, mainly across the ridgetops and as heavier rain
showers pass overhead.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-252230-
Rabun-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
530 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds will increase across the ridgetops and mountain peaks in the
pre-dawn hours, with a few wind gusts around 40 mph possible
beginning before daybreak.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Occasional strong wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible through
Wednesday afternoon, mainly across the ridgetops and as heavier rain
showers pass overhead.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-252230-
Elbert-Union NC-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
530 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A large area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move
across the region on Wednesday, accompanied by strong gusty winds
and heavy downpours. A few of the storms will have the potential to
produce damaging wind gusts. The threat should end by sunset
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-506>510-
SCZ008>010-101>109-252230-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-
Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
530 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A large area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move
across the region on Wednesday, possibly accompanied by brief, strong
gusty winds and heavy downpours. The threat should end by sunset
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.