Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

748 
WWUS72 KGSP 230330
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1030 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-231130-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.230123T0500Z-230124T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1030 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
  expected. 

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Where winds blow across roadways, high profile 
  vehicles may be difficult to keep on the road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Lane

853 
WWUS72 KGSP 230922
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
422 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-231730-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230124T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
422 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Where winds blow across roadways, high profile 
  vehicles may be difficult to keep on the road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Weather Advisory also remains in
  effect for Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties until 4 pm. The
  strong winds could result in some blowing and drifting of snow,
  mainly near the Tennessee border, through mid-afternoon. Some
  single-digit wind chill temperatures can be expected on the
  highest mountain peaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

PM

596 
WWUS72 KGSP 231840
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
140 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-240000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230124T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
140 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Where winds blow across roadways, high profile 
  vehicles may be difficult to keep on the road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Weather Advisory also remains in 
  effect for Avery, Mitchell, and Yancey counties until 4 pm. 
  The strong winds could result in some blowing and drifting of 
  snow, mainly near the Tennessee border, through mid-afternoon. 
  Some single-digit wind chill temperatures can be expected on 
  the highest mountain peaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

858 
WWUS72 KGSP 240001
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-240115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230124T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
701 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Occasional wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will remain possible this
evening, mainly across the higher elevations. However, this is
well below Wind Advisory criteria, and the advisory is being
allowed to expire on time. 

$$
Lane

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
107 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain moves into the area and continues through Monday. Expect rain
for most of the area with a light freezing rain mixing in at the
higher elevations near the Blue Ridge Escarpment Sunday morning
before transitioning to all rain by Sunday afternoon. A brief dry
period to start the week with another round of precipitation by mid
week. Temperatures expected to remain near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM EST Sunday: The main rain band from earlier this
morning has lifted off to the north and east. Expect a lull in the
precipitation for the rest of the morning outside of a few isolated
showers. The forecast remains on track besides updating temperatures
and PoPs based on observations and recent trends. Have allow the
Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain expire, so the plan
afterwards is to place a new Winter Weather Advisory for northwest
flow snow along the NC/TN border for tonight through Monday.

Today looks like a cold and wet winter day thanks to widespread
light precip that will lock in an in-situ cold air damming wedge
east of the mtns. One wave of precip will move across the fcst area
in the morning necessitating a categorical precip prob. Some
elevated CAPE will probably spread over the lower Piedmont and
northeast GA, allowing for some embedded thunderstorms. The
potential for any significant storms appears to be nil. The QPF has
fallen a bit more as well, so flooding is also a relatively minor
concern. After this first wave passes, guidance shows another surge
of precip in the late afternoon/early evening as another short wave
lifts out from the mid/upper trof which remains to the west until
Monday morning. Precip should remain all liquid until later this
evening when some colder air starts to filter in from the west. The
main precip area will lift out to the east before the cold air
arrives east of the mtns, so no problems there. That will not be the
case across the mountains, however.

A transition to a NW Flow Upslope precip event takes place late
tonight as the 850 mb trof passes around 06Z and cold air advection
commences. Precip probs rise back to likely/categorical in the
upslope areas near the TN border in the early morning hours and
precip changes from rain to snow from the ridgetops down to the
valleys between midnight and daybreak. The NW flow snow will
continue through the better part of the day on Monday mostly
near the TN border. Snow amounts are expected to be more variable
than the last event with less of a potential for snow outside of
the upslope areas. That being said, guidance shows a window of
opportunity between 12Z and 18Z Monday when the moisture will poke
up into the dendritic growth zone, affording some good snow making
potential. Will not be surprised if elevations above 4500 feet or
so get 6-12 inches between Midnight and late afternoon Monday,
but overall, an average snowfall across elevations above 3500
feet is not likely to reach Warning criteria. The present course
is toward issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight and
Monday along the TN border. Winds will be brisk across the mtns with
temps below normal, but east of the mtns the downslope flow will
bring temps back to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 222 AM Sunday: As the area of low pressure moves NE and out of
the area, surface high pressure builds back into the southeast on
Monday night into Tuesday. Upper ridging will propagate eastward as
a trough begins to dig in the southwest. Along with the trough, an
upper low forms and ejects into the central plains, signaling the
next system to cross into the CWA. A strong cold front is
anticipated to sweep across the area early Wednesday morning, with a
trail of heavy rainfall. A broad warm sector should setup ahead of
the front, with ample WAA from southerly surface flow. Instability
remains in question as guidance indicates small amounts of MUCAPE
and no SBCAPE, leaving this event non-convective. Should instability
be able to move into the area ahead of the front, severe weather
could be possible, but at this time confidence is low. Categorical
PoPs for the entire area by Wednesday morning and rain totals
expected to be between 1-2 inches, with higher local amounts
possible. The other story for this event is the wind, which could be
strong with the FROPA on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.
Gusts could reach 30 plus mph in the Piedmont, but should remain
well below any advisory criteria. Temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will remain mild with the majority of the CWA reaching
highs in the 50s and lows 30s, with the mountains in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Thursday with very broad upper trofing spreading eastward and
pushing upper ridging off the East Coast. Over the next couple
of days, the upper trof will lift up and over the Southeast and
broaden as it gets reinforced from the backside. It will linger
over the Eastern CONUS thru Fri and should eventually translate
off the Atlantic Coast over the weekend. Heights will steadily
recover in its wake as flat upper ridging builds again to our
south.

At the sfc, a robust cold front will be moving east of our fcst
area and off the coast as the period begins early Thurs. In its
wake, drying high pressure will spread over the area from the
west and linger over the Southeast into the weekend. By the end
of the period next Sunday, most of the long-range guidance has
the high moving off the Atlantic Coast as another robust-looking
low pressure system lifts out of the southern Plains and brings
another moist cold front towards our region. As for the sensible
fcst.... with the exception of some
lingering moisture within the stout, low-lvl WLY flow along the
NC/TN border on Thursday and Friday. Convective potential still
appears minimal with the fropa on Wednesday. MUCAPE has trended
a bit downward compared to previous guidance, but wind shear remains
robust. Temperatures should remain mild for January with highs in
the low to mid 50s over the lower terrain and upper 30s to upper 40s
over the mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The first of two rain bands has lifted out of
the area, so expect a lull in precip through the early afternoon
hours. Will maintain -RA in the TAFs for ongoing scattered showers
ahead of the next rainband that should arrive later this
afternoon/evening. Most terminals have IFR/LIFR cigs and that should
continue through the afternoon as the area remains locked in thanks
to an in-situ wedge. Winds will gradually back from NE to N thru the
day, then N to NW and SW in the late afternoon and early evening as
low pressure moves past. IFR/LIFR ceiling will persist at all
terminals into the early morning hours on Monday. Drier air will
filter in from the southwest overnight and that should allow cigs to
scatter out at or just after daybreak Monday. All terminals should
be VFR after 15Z Monday, but winds will become gusty and is
reflected in the 18Z TAF update.

Outlook: Expect improvement to VFR on Monday as dry high pressure
returns and persists into Tuesday. Yet another low pressure/frontal
system is expected to bring precipitation and restrictions back
to the region Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CAC/PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>065-231030-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-
523 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected to redevelop
across parts of the North Carolina mountains early Monday morning
behind a departing cold front. Light snow and sleet accumulations
will be possible, especially in locations near the Tennessee border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-231030-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
523 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected to redevelop
across parts of the North Carolina mountains early Monday morning
behind a departing cold front. Light snow and sleet accumulations
will be possible, especially in locations near the Tennessee border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-231030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
523 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.