Wind Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

411 
WWUS72 KGSP 141941
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-150200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230115T0200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
241 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chill values may drop down into the
  single digits this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will continue into early afternoon along the border of North
Carolina and Tennessee as moist northwest winds continue across
the mountains, with strong gusts possible in the higher elevations
through this evening. Calm and dry weather will settle in Sunday
and Monday, with temperatures warming back to normal. A couple
of fast-moving low pressure systems likely will bring rain to the
region at times between Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...A continuing NWFS event still looks
impressive on the KMRX radar with the central and southern NC mtn
spine areas receiving the bulk of accumulation. From a few reports
obtained this morning, areas abv 3500 ft have snowfall totals in the
7-11 inch range with light to moderate snowfall continuing. The
latest satellite loops and dropped soundings still indicate an
efficient and long moisture stream off Lake Michigan into the NC
mtns with a shallow and saturated dendritic zone.

This setup will begin to change over the next 6 hrs as upper ridging
builds across the midwest and shunts llvl streamlines east and
mostly over land. Thus, moisture flux will become disorganized and
shallower while cloud tops warm below 10 C by 12z. Still expect
another 2-4 inches of snow across the Smokies thru daybreak with
less than that elsewhere before the snow finally tapers off arnd
18z. There is a small chance of -fzdz to develop once the dendritic
zone is lost, yet top-down methods insist on only light snow, so
will not mention any mixed precip in the grids. The WSW will be
extended in time to 18z which includes the all the existing warning
and advisory areas. Not expecting much snow in the lower valleys btw
12z-18z, but with the system over-performing and KAVL receiving
periodic -sn and -ip, will keep the advisories in play for possible
slick roads just off the valley floors.

Winds will remain rather stout and gusty due to a tight p/grad and
continued llvl CAA flow across the nrn NC mtns, so will hoist a wind
adv from 12z thru 02z this evening, which will include the higher
zones of the nrn NC foothills. No good chance of black ice tonight
as winds remain elevated and clouds dissipate relatively late across
the wrn mtns. Another cold day is in store with highs in the m30s
mtn valleys and m40s east of the mtns. The coldest night of the new
year is also expected as lows drop into the lower to mid 20s over
the entire fcst area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sat: Dry and comparatively uneventful weather is in
store for Sunday as shortwave ridge builds overhead. Winds will be
light and skies mostly sunny, and temperatures should bounce back
to at least normal, excepting the areas where snow remains on the
ground. Low-level flow likely will remain northerly and downslope
during the day. With dewpoints likely remaining in the teens (if
not lower) thru peak heating, minimum RH may fall critically low
in the fire weather sense.

The ridge axis will cross the CWA early Monday and should initiate
return flow, preceding low pressure crossing the upper Mississippi
Valley. Some cirrus should arrive in advance of the surrounding
trough, possibly tempering what would otherwise be a further rebound
in temps; dewpoints will have trended sufficiently higher that
low RH is not much of a concern. Lower level moisture and upglide
return Monday night, with a rapid increase in PoPs. Confidence is
still reasonably high that the moisture and clouds will hold temps
above freezing throughout the CWA, with mins likely being 10 or more
degrees above normal. The system looks to begin occluding Monday
night, prior to the arrival of its fronts, and that should mean
winds stay relatively backed through the event. As such it looks
like we shouldn't expect much of an airmass change. PoPs peak late
Monday night in our west and Tuesday morning in our east; measly
elevated instability looks too shallow to support a thunder chance.
Deterministic runs show almost all precip coming to an end east
of the mountains by 00z Wed so most of the CWA will see a lull in
PoPs begin by that time. Temps edge maybe a category warmer for
highs Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sat: Winds veer to westerly if not slightly north of
west across the southern Appalachians Tuesday night as weak cold
front enters the CWA. Some guidance depicts small upslope QPF near
the TN border after 00z, but that only warrants small PoPs.  The next
shortwave in the train looks to cross the Rockies early Wednesday,
slightly further south and a bit deeper than the one associated with
the system which will have just departed our CWA. It will be in
position to permit a quick turnaround to ridging and WAA across the
Deep South and TN Valley, such that any cooling trend appears to be
offset in the NC mountains. Thus min temps remain similar to the
previous night's, and warm enough to preclude snow. Furthermore, max
temps are expected to be 10 or more degrees above normal Wed and Thu.

Cyclogenesis should occur in the southern Plains during the day
Wednesday, and a well defined warm front sets up over Tennessee,
clearly discernible as an axis of enhanced QPF. The GFS and EC are in
decent agreement on the placement thereof, but the GFS is
substantially higher in QPF. As it stands that is not of much
consequence being west of our CWA, but the position of the front may
be worth monitoring over the next few runs, as well as whether other
guidance joins the GFS in being so high. Current progs show PoPs/QPF
in our area mainly resulting from the cold front as it encroaches
early Thursday and passes in the afternoon or evening. The global
models all depict a narrow plume of SBCAPE ahead of the front, though
mainly west of our CWA where the front will be at peak heating. With
strong shear parameters (0-3km values of 40+ kt, 0-1km 30+ kt), it
could be interesting. CAD does not look likely to be in place, so
severe threat currently would appear to be nonzero if we do realize
some SBCAPE. A mitigating factor is the unfavorable track of the
500mb trough, which skirts by to the northwest. Once again, a day to
keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...Strong NW flow will continue across the area
with KAVL experiencing moderate gustiness thru the period. Included
a TEMPO at KAVL for MVFR CIGS and periodic -snsh thru 10z, which may
need to be added again with an AMD near daybreak. Otherwise, the
non/mtn TAF sites should remain VFR as downsloping continues to dry
out the bndry layer and elevated sfc winds offset any chance fog. A
gap wind is noted across the Upstate and included low-end gusts at
KGMU thru the overnight. All sites, except perhaps KAND, will
develop nw/ly gusts after sunrise into the afternoon in shallow yet
energized mixing.

Outlook: Broad and dry high pressure builds into the area early
Sunday, with a chance of fog each morning across the mountain
valleys. The next good chance of active weather and associated
flight restrictions will be Monday evening into Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet until 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NCZ033-048>052-058.
     Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet until 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NCZ033-048>052-058.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening
     for NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NCZ053-059-062.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
416 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

NCZ033-048>052-058-142130-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
416 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY BELOW
3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.

NCZ053-059-062-142130-
Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-
416 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.

GAZ010-NCZ063>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ101>103-142130-
Rabun-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
416 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Brisk and gusty winds will develop across the mountains today as a
cold Canadian airmass builds into the region. Nuisance impacts are
possible, such as trash cans or lawn furniture being blown over.
Some higher elevations could see wind chills fall below zero late
tonight or Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Gusty winds may continue or even worsen through Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-142130-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
416 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1235 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     SNOW             5 NNE FAUST             35.98N 82.50W
01/13/2023  M10.5 INCH       YANCEY             NC   PUBLIC

            ELEVATION 4360 FT.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1243 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     SNOW             2 N BANNER ELK          36.19N 81.88W
01/14/2023  E7.0 INCH        AVERY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH ON GRASS OF 6 TO 8
            INCHES.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     SNOW             2 N BANNER ELK          36.19N 81.88W
01/14/2023  E7.0 INCH        AVERY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 2 N
            BANNER ELK. ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH ON GRASS OF
            6 TO 8 INCHES AT BEECH MOUNTAIN POLICE DEPT.

&&

WIMBERLEY