Tornado Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

766 
WWUS52 KGSP 192322
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

NCC119-192332-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230619T2345Z/
Mecklenburg NC-
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3540 8076 3540 8077 3542 8075 3549 8079
      3551 8078 3551 8081 3559 8085 3569 8067
      3544 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 243DEG 10KT 3550 8076 

$$

NCC025-097-159-192345-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230619T2345Z/
Cabarrus NC-Iredell NC-Rowan NC-
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES...
    
At 722 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles west of Kannapolis, or 4 miles northwest of
Coddle Creek Reservoir, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Enochville around 750 PM EDT.
  Kannapolis and Landis around 800 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mount
Ulla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8076 3540 8077 3542 8075 3549 8079
      3551 8078 3551 8081 3559 8085 3569 8067
      3544 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 243DEG 10KT 3550 8076 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

RWH

116 
WWUS52 KGSP 192337
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

NCC025-097-159-192345-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230619T2345Z/
Cabarrus NC-Iredell NC-Rowan NC-
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES...
    
At 737 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles west of Kannapolis, or near Enochville, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Coddle Creek Reservoir around 740 PM EDT.
  Enochville around 800 PM EDT.
  Kannapolis and Landis around 810 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8075 3549 8078 3551 8078 3551 8079
      3552 8080 3557 8083 3566 8065 3550 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 259DEG 8KT 3552 8073 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low-pressure system developing over the Ohio Valley will
usher in a prolonged period of wet and stormy weather throughout the
week as it drifts slowly over the Deep South. Numerous rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will develop east of this system over the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia continuing throughout the
week, with locally heavy rainfall expected. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will diminish slowly over the weekend as the low pressure
system lifts east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
600 PM Update...Ongoing convec has remained low-topped with little
lightning potential outside of a cell or two as overall instability
remains weak. A persistent mesolow from earlier this afternoon has
spawned periodic funnel clouds east of Davidson, NC and the radar
continues to show good tornadic structure and interesting SRM
velocities. The current TOR expires at 615 PM and another TOR may be
needed on this storm as it pushes across srn Rowan Co and possibly
re-cycles.

As of 243 PM EDT Monday: The initial band of thunderstorms and
heavier rain has moved off to the east, leaving behind scattered
showers and low cloudiness across the fcst area as a weak mesolow
lifts northeastward across the western Carolinas. As the mesolow
pulls away, we should start to get more holes in the overcast that
will allow for some better destabilization. The latest mesoanalysis
shows areas just to the west of the fcst area with sfc-based CAPE
upwards of 2500 J/kg but weak shear. It stands to reason that the
environment to the west will creep into at least the western part
of the fcst area thru the early evening, with improving dCAPE above
800 J/kg as well. This would support the possibility of a few severe
storms with possible wind damage thru sunset or thereabouts. Temps
will be modulated by the location/movement of storms.

Over the next 24 hours, our potential to produce additional rain
will improve as a stacked low pressure system drops southward across
the TN Valley region tonight and sets up shop to our W/SW over AL
or western GA on Tuesday. Model guidance is not overly impressive
with the mid/upper forcing. However, Precipitable Water is already
above 1.5 inches and may approach the climatological max eventually,
and moisture is deep. As the low moves into position, the low level
flow will back from SW this afternoon to SE Tuesday morning and
then easterly by late in the day, so at least the low level forcing
will be excellent. This will shift the focus for precip production
to the upslope areas along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment starting
late tonight and then even more so by Tuesday afternoon. Precip
probs ramp up to likely then categorical thru the period, with
fairly high confidence. It seems inevitable that a Flood Watch
will have to be put into effect eventually with this pattern, but
it may take a period of time to wet things down because of the dry
antecedent conditions. The model guidance at least in the very near
term seems to focus the heaviest precip potential to the north of
the forecast area. However, with the strengthening easterly flow,
our potential for flooding really starts to improve after daybreak
on Tuesday. Things being what they are, think it prudent to begin
a Flood Watch at 6 am Tuesday along/near the escarpment in NC as
a starting point and we can modify from there. Temps will remain
relatively cool with low diurnal ranges. Wind will not be a problem
through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 pm EDT Monday: Short term model guidance generally agrees
that the upper low...which is expected to be centered near the
"confluence" of TN/GA/AL at the start of the period...will begin to
slowly wobble/retrograde N/NW through the short term. This would
tend to re-focus the wave train of vorticity rotating around the low
center more over our area (as opposed to east of our area). As the
same time, strengthening surface high pressure over New England is
expected to sharpen the inverted ridge/E-NE flow down the eastern
seaboard, which is expected to advect cooler/more stable air through
a good chunk of the forecast area for Tue night->Wed night. There
will still be plenty of easterly upslope flow, which combined with
the upper air support will result in plenty of showers and a few
storms during this time frame, but the more stable conditions should
limit the rainfall rate potential. Nevertheless, a threat for
excessive rainfall will continue...if nothing else due to the
deteriorating antecedent conditions.

The relatively stable conditions are expected to be short-lived, as
the retrograding upper low...along with New England surface high
moving out into the Atlantic is expected to result in the return of
southerly flow and a warm sector-ish air mass to the CWA on
Thursday. Higher instability is therefore expected Thu afternoon,
which should allow for another round of widespread showers and
storms, with said storms creating higher potential for excessive
rainfall rates...and perhaps a low-end severe storm threat.
Additional rainfall in the short term is expected to be in the 2-4"
range, with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the
eastern Blue Ridge escarpment. This being the expected 4th
consecutive day of multiple rounds of numerous/widespread
convection, Thursday should see another uptick in the flash flood
threat, as well as an increasing threat for flooding on larger
streams. With widespread clouds and precip, max temps are expected
to be around 10 degrees below climo, and min temps a little above
normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 pm EDT Monday: The upper low...which is expected to be
somewhere in the Ohio/TN Valley region at the start of the period...
is expected to continue plaguing the area into the early part of the
extended period. However, the global models generally agree that the
stubborn/blocking ridge west->north of the upper low will begin to
break down late in the week, as a substantial short wave ejects from
the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This is expected
to allow the upper low to begin opening up/nudging its way to the
east over the weekend. In fact, there's an emerging consensus that
the trough axis will finally be east of the CWA by Sunday. In the
interim, we'll probably have to deal with one more day of numerous/
widespread showers/storms...with a continued ticking threat of
excessive rainfall...on Friday. Beyond Friday, convection should
trend toward a more diurnally-driven cycle, and coverage should
become less widespread...although expected moisture and instability
should support above-climo PoPs Saturday through Monday. Although
this will be more of a typical early summer pattern, poor antecedent
conditions are expected to result in a higher-than-usual threat for
locally excessive rainfall. Temperatures are expected to return to
near-normal levels for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The first round of showers and thunderstorms
has shifted to the east of the fcst area and left behind scattered
showers with patches of an MVFR-level ceiling restriction. Winds
were all over the dial as a weak area of low pressure was lifting
northward across the western Carolinas. The weak low should move
out through late afternoon and in its wake the wind should return
to SW or S across the fcst area. Holes in the broken ceiling should
allow for enough instability to develop through late afternoon,
which will fuel another round of showers and thunderstorms
across the fcst area. Will strategically plan on using a TEMPO
for the thunderstorm possibility in the late afternoon and early
evening, with vis and/or ceiling dropping to IFR in the stronger
storms. After sunset, widespread MVFR ceiling will fill in with the
initially weak upslope flow. However, low pressure developing to
the southwest will back the low level flow around to the SE later
this evening, greatly improving the upslope flow on the east side
of the mtns. As a result, confidence is good that an IFR ceiling
restriction will develop by late evening with occasional light rain
continuing overnight and into Tuesday morning. Some thunderstorms
are possible during the late evening, and the PROB30 will be spent
there. The low restrictions will continue thru about midday Tuesday,
when some improvement to MVFR will begin at least for awhile.

Outlook: Occasional showers and thunderstorms will result in
periods of flight restrictions from MVFR to LIFR through the
remainder of the week as the upper low stalls west of the area
and becomes stagnant over the Southeast.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-201000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the forecast
area from southwest to northeast today. Some of these storms will be
strong, producing gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes. A few will probably become severe, capable of producing
damaging winds and large hail.

Additionally, localized flooding will be possible across most of the
forecast area today through tonight, as many locations will be
affected by multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. This should be
restricted mainly to low-lying areas and locations with poor
drainage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue across
the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Torrential downpours falling on
increasingly saturated ground will steadily raise the threat of more
widespread flooding. Showers and thunderstorms may continue at times
on Thursday and Friday as well, possibly worsening any existing
flooding problems and potentially creating new flooding. The
persistent threat of heavy rainfall through the week may raise the
threat of landslides as well for locations in and near the mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Salisbury          35.66N 80.47W
06/19/2023                   Rowan              NC   Trained Spotter

            A tree was blown down on Martin Luther King
            Jr Avenue.

&&

DEO