Tornado Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

323 
WWUS52 KGSP 272333
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
633 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

SCC073-272342-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230227T2345Z/
Oconee SC-
633 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved east 
of Oconee County. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3464 8283 3465 8283 3467 8285 3470 8285
      3470 8286 3473 8286 3474 8289 3479 8288
      3482 8290 3493 8252 3488 8249 3482 8249
      3478 8245 3473 8247 3468 8246 3463 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 255DEG 38KT 3474 8280 

$$

SCC007-077-272345-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230227T2345Z/
Anderson SC-Pickens SC-
633 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES...
    
At 632 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Clemson, or near Central, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Liberty around 640 PM EST.
  Easley around 650 PM EST.
  Powdersville and Piedmont around 700 PM EST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8283 3465 8283 3467 8285 3470 8285
      3470 8286 3473 8286 3474 8289 3479 8288
      3482 8290 3493 8252 3488 8249 3482 8249
      3478 8245 3473 8247 3468 8246 3463 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 255DEG 38KT 3474 8280 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

HG

340 
WWUS52 KGSP 272338
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
638 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

SCC007-077-272348-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230227T2345Z/
Anderson SC-Pickens SC-
638 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND CENTRAL PICKENS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds to 40 mph are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3464 8283 3465 8283 3467 8285 3470 8285
      3470 8286 3473 8286 3474 8289 3479 8288
      3482 8290 3493 8252 3488 8249 3482 8249
      3478 8245 3473 8247 3468 8246 3463 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 256DEG 39KT 3475 8275 

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will linger across our region
Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure organizes over Texas. This
storm system moves east northeast from Texas Wednesday then reaches
our area on Friday bringing the potential for severe weather.  The
low pressure and associated strong cold front moves over the
Atlantic on Saturday with cool and dry high pressure in control of
our weather through the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday: A compact, vigorous shortwave trough
will track across the southern Great Lakes tonight, bringing some
subtle height falls across the region. An associated deep sfc low
as analyzed over northern IL, with a warm front extending to the
southeast, linking up with a residual wedge front across the center
of the forecast area. A windy warm sector encompasses much of the
OH and TN valleys. A weakening cold front will quickly cross the
TN Valley this aftn and push across the forecast area tonight. Low
stratus and some fog associated with the residual wedge are slow
to mix out over the NC Piedmont and far eastern SC Piedmont,
but should mostly erode by the end of the day. Meanwhile, copious
clouds are streaming in from the west, putting a cap on insolation
and destabilization. There is about 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across
the central TN Valley, with a broken line of showers ahead of
the cold front. This activity may produce a few lightning strikes
as it enters the CWFA this evening, but the severe threat looks
very low, as the convection enters less unstable air. Not much
change in the overall thinking, with likely to categorical PoPs
will track with the line late aftn thru the evening. Meanwhile,
a 50-kt SWLY LLJ will enter the NC mountains thru the aftn hours,
resulting potential advisory-level gusts above 3500 ft.

Later this evening, convection will exit to the east, while
the cold front largely washes out. It will usher in strong 850
mb CAA across the mountains, with flow veering to westerly and
possibly reaching 60 kt. A cross-section over Avery County shows
a mountain wave signature, where some of that flow may reach the
surface in lower elevations. A few trees and power lines may be
knocked down in these areas tonight, before winds start to weaken
early Tuesday morning. So a High Wind Warning was issued for the
Northern Mountains and an Advisory for the adjacent escarpment
zones from 00z to 14z Tuesday. Winds will weaken elsewhere, but
should remain high enough to preclude any fog development. Lows
will be around 15 to 20 deg above normal.

Tuesday, conditions will quiet down, as dry deep-layer zonal flow
sets up atop the region. The day will start out warm, and with a
downslope flow and sunny skies, temps will rebound to near daily
records east of the mountains (see Climate section below). Highs
ranging from 10-15 deg above normal in the mountains to 15-20 deg
above normal east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday: Quasi-zonal flow aloft with a broad
surface high will settle over the East Coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Surface high will gradually shift offshore
during the daytime period Wednesday as the flow aloft picks up
a west-southwesterly component and a southwesterly return flow
from the Gulf at the surface. An approaching frontal system will
push in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday as insentropic
lift develops out ahead of the system. PoPs will quickly ramp up
Wednesday evening/night as the surface low shifts from the Great
Lakes region into the northeastern CONUS and slides a frontal
boundary into the CFWA under good upper divergence support. Model
guidance depict this frontal boundary somewhat stalling over the
CFWA through the end of the period. In this case, a low-end hydro
threat may be in store as PoPs remain elevated to categorical/likely
ranges under high PWAT values (1.00"-1.50+") through 00Z Friday.
Operational models and GEFS plumes even place a couple hundred J/kg
of SBCAPE across portions of the CFWA Thursday afternoon/evening, so
a low-end severe threat could be in store if this trend continues,
but guidance also depicts a lull in precip during this time, so this
development is wishy-washy. Temperatures will continue to run well-
above normal as values will be 15-20 degrees above normal for much
of the short-term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday: A lull in precip may occur Thursday
afternoon/evening as the quasi-stationary boundary undergoes
warm frontal activation over the Southeast, ahead of a strong
surface low riding along the boundary over the Ark-La-Tex region
as it quickly strengthens through cyclogenesis. As the warm front
lifts northward through the CFWA, better QPF response and PoPs will
return to likely/categorical values by Thursday night. As the parent
low lifts into the Midwest Thursday night into Friday, a strong cold
front will encroach the region. This front will be strongly forced
as a negatively tilted upper trough swings from the Four Corners
region Thursday into the the heart of the country by Friday with
great upper divergence settling over the Southeast on the leeside of
the upper trough. With the CFWA strictly under a warm sector regime
and the latest GEFS plumes placing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in
locations outside of the mountains to go along with great deep layer
shear and SRH values, expect the potential for a severe threat to be
in the works. This setup would support the development of a squall
line along this boundary, while mini-supercells should form out ahead
of the front. In this case, all three severe hazards will be
possible with damaging straight-line winds and a few embedded
tornadoes being the main focus. The severe threat should end by
Friday night, but with the fropa occurring during peak heating
Friday and environmental parameters appearing in model guidance with
values we haven't seen in a while is a cause for concern, even with
the event being 4-5 days out. We urge everyone to continue
monitoring the forecast leading up to Thursday and Friday as it will
change between now and then, but the run-to-run consensus between
all operational models and ensembles makes it hard to believe that
there won't be at least a low-end severe threat across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. A low-end hydro threat will be
possible as well on Friday, but is definitely the secondary threat,
especially when considering the forward progression of this system.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the work week.

The cold front will quickly shift offshore by the start of the
upcoming weekend. Expect stout dry air entrainment behind the front
as a broad surface high gradually pushes in from the west. High
pressure will remain in control through the end of the forecast
period as the flow aloft becomes more quasi-zonal. Temperatures
will return to near-normal values, but may end up a few ticks
above as height falls don't appear to be very substantial.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An area of IFR stratus as mostly lifted to
MVFR across the NC Piedmont, with a gap where clouds have mixed
out across the central Upstate and eastern SC Piedmont. The latest
thinking is that the gap will help get cigs to VFR over CLT by
19-20z, but there is a chance the cigs remain MVFR. Upstream, a
broad area of MVFR cigs are working into the Upstate, and expect
cigs of 2500-3500 FT thru the aftn and early evening. Winds will
pick up out of the SW and become gusty. A cold front will bring an
area of showers in from the west late aftn thru early evening. Timed
TEMPO groups at all sites based on the latest HRRR timing,
generally 22z-02z time frame. Cannot rule out isolated embedded
TS, but due to lack of instability, will keep just SHRA mention
in the 18z TAFs. Winds will only veer slightly and remain SWLY
behind the front this evening, with potential for strongest gusts
across the Piedmont sites, up to about 25 kt. Cigs are expected
to lift to VFR behind the front, then clear out overnight. Winds
will become lighter and lose gustiness during the pre-dawn hours,
except lingering into Tuesday morning at KAVL. Quiet conditions
are expected by the end of the TAF period, with light WSW to WNW
wind and clear skies.

Outlook: Dry high pressure remains over the region on Tuesday,
and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Another front
will approach from the west late in the week, bringing increasing
clouds and rain chances starting Thursday. The front is expected
to cross the area Friday, and may bring strong storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      77 1918     26 1941     58 1948     13 1935
                                        1896        1934
                                                    1906
   KCLT      78 2011     29 1934     61 1890     14 2002
                1962
                1948
   KGSP      77 1961     35 1934     59 1997     16 2002

RECORDS FOR 03-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2006     31 1920     55 1997     10 1914
   KCLT      82 1918     36 1980     60 2017     15 1980
                            1969
                            1927
   KGSP      80 1918     30 1934     60 2012     19 1906

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday
     for NCZ033-049-050.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ501-503-505.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-502-
504-506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-282100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A low pressure system moving by to our northwest on Friday is
expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely
in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may
start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night
and continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that
enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to
raise the threat for strong thunderstorms, with all forms of severe
weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the
timing and location of the more significant threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-282100-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the central and southern
mountains of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A low pressure system moving by to our northwest on Friday is
expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely
in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may
start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night
and continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that
enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to
raise the threat for strong thunderstorms, with all forms of severe
weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the
timing and location of the more significant threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-282100-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

In addition, a low pressure system moving by to our northwest on
Friday is expected to push a strong cold front across our region,
most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain
showers may start to build over or near the region as early as
Wednesday night and continue at times through Friday. Current
expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be
available by Friday to raise the threat for strong thunderstorms,
with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain
uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ501-503-505-282100-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
355 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for mountain portions of Caldwell,
Burke, and McDowell Counties in western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition, a low pressure system moving by to our northwest on
Friday is expected to push a strong cold front across our region,
most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain
showers may start to build over or near the region as early as
Wednesday night and continue at times through Friday. Current
expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be
available by Friday to raise the threat for strong thunderstorms,
with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain
uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant
threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
552 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

NCZ033-048>050-053-272330-
Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-Avery NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
552 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact portions
of Madison, Mitchell, Avery, northern Buncombe and Yancey Counties
through 630 PM EST...

At 552 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking shower and thunderstorms
along a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Erwin to 15 miles
west of Marshall. Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Marshall, Newland, Woodfin, Weaverville,
Mars Hill, Banner Elk, Hot Springs and Elk Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3607 8174 3573 8233 3555 8277
      3562 8281 3564 8287 3574 8292 3575 8296
      3594 8290 3593 8281 3600 8278 3606 8264
      3603 8259 3597 8261 3595 8256 3611 8237
      3616 8222 3610 8208 3612 8203 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 288DEG 46KT 3622 8237 3576 8295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
555 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-272345-
Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
555 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact portions
of Macon, Jackson, Swain, Graham and Haywood Counties through 645 PM
EST...

At 554 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles east of Gatlinburg to 7 miles
northwest of Bryson City to 8 miles west of Andrews. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Sylva, Waynesville, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee,
Canton, Cullowhee, Lake Junaluska and Clyde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8402 3552 8388 3556 8377 3556 8350
      3566 8335 3566 8330 3573 8324 3579 8308
      3579 8296 3564 8287 3562 8281 3557 8277
      3539 8278 3500 8346 3504 8356 3515 8365
      3515 8374 3526 8371 3522 8396 3531 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 285DEG 32KT 3573 8325 3547 8358 3524 8396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG