Tornado Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

604 
WWUS52 KGSP 032001
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAC105-119-147-032030-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230803T2030Z/
Franklin GA-Elbert GA-Hart GA-
401 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN HART
COUNTIES...
    
At 400 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles southeast of Carnesville, or near Royston, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bowman around 420 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Vanna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3419 8309 3420 8309 3423 8308
      3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8324
      3431 8324 3440 8309 3430 8289 3415 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 315DEG 36KT 3431 8313 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

KRENTZ

101 
WWUS52 KGSP 032023
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
423 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAC105-119-147-032032-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230803T2030Z/
Franklin GA-Elbert GA-Hart GA-
423 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN HART COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3419 8309 3420 8309 3423 8308
      3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8324
      3431 8324 3440 8309 3430 8289 3415 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 315DEG 10KT 3427 8308 

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will cross the region ahead of a passing
upper-level disturbance late today before drier air moves in from
the northwest tonight through Friday. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms may redevelop on Friday as temperatures rebound.
Temperatures warm further over the weekend with a return of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will
cross the region from the northwest early next week, bringing a
round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 pm EDT: Radar shows cellular activity with greater
vertical development arising from the west this afternoon as forcing
with the vigorous upper shortwave starts to move into the region.
Will ramp PoPs back up to categorical for most areas following the
region of deeper forcing associated with improving upper jetlet
divergence and robust deep-layer DPVA now through around 00Z. Just
ahead of the shortwave, we are seeing SBCAPE bubble back up to 2000
to 2200 J/kg across NE GA due to very brief breaks/thin spots in the
clouds and continued low-level theta e advection. This more unstable
region should coincide with a late afternoon maximum of 30+ kt deep
layer shear to provide the best potential for severe storms and
damaging wind gusts late this afternoon through early this evening.
Any hydro problems will also be in the heavier rainfall rates
associated with this deeper convection near the Upper Savannah River
Region, but with the threat area generally too small, short-lived,
and uncertain for any Flood Watches. Anticipate mid-level drying
behind the shortwave from late evening through the overnight hours,
with fog and low stratus likely to develop as the boundary layer
remains very moist.

Relatively dry profiles will remain in place on Friday, but with
deeper moisture brushing the southwest fringe of the area atop a
stalled boundary. Given better daytime heating pushing temperatures
back to within one to two categories of climo, and lingering
boundary layer moisture, instability will return and permit
scattered convective coverage to develop off the Blue Ridge
mountains Friday afternoon. Weak downsloping, along with the drier
profiles, could cause the coverage to struggle more in the foothills
and Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 149 PM EDT Thursday: The weekend appears to be set up as a bit
of a transition period.  With the final vort lobe likely to our east
by Friday night, broad troughing over the northeastern CONUS will
begin to lift, permitting subtle height rises over the Carolinas
amid a flattening upper pattern.  Some guidance depicts either
an open wave or a weak surface low sliding across the Carolinas
Friday night, which will promote NNE low- and mid-level winds
through much of Saturday.  This'll result in general drying on
Saturday, with afternoon dewpoints only forecast to be in the mid-
to upper-70s, and sbCAPE negligible for most of the forecast area.
An excellent day to not worry about thunderstorms!

By Sunday, as the surface circulation slides east...a light SW
wind should return, promoting some degree of moisture flux back
into the Carolinas as weak warm frontal activation takes place
in the lee of the departing low.  Thermodynamics look variously
better (lapse rates look modest at best, but the instability will
be there), and with the presence of a boundary should be enough of
a trigger to give us some thunder.  Can't rule out a severe storm
here and there, although with only 15kts of deep layer shear or
so, widespread issues aren't expected.  Rather, slow storm motion
vectors paired with 1.7-1.9" PWs may support the rain rates needed
for more of a heavy rain issue than a severe issue.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 201 PM EDT Thursday: By Sunday night, the operational models
depict a 500mb trough amplifying over the Midwest, before sliding
into the Ohio Valley on Monday accompanied by a robust cold front.
By this point in time, dewpoints in the Carolinas will have had time
to return to seasonable values for August, promoting excellent
instability for Monday afternoon. While the base of the trough
generally looks to pull north before reaching the
Carolinas...guidance indicates that some not-insignificant shear
values may develop during peak heating Monday afternoon, and a
minority camp of the global ensembles support a more southward, semi-
complete trough passage.  So, the most likely scenario appears to be
scattered to widespread thunder Monday afternoon and evening, some
of it becoming strong...with lower confidence in some severe
thunderstorms as well.

Intractable weather sets up for Tuesday and beyond...with flat, ill-
defined upper flow behind the departing trough.  A residual frontal
boundary is depicted with excellent ensemble agreement along the
southern tier of our counties, such that on Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday afternoons there will wind up being an instability
gradient, with more unstable air to the south and stabler air to the
north.  So, for now it appears that diurnal thunder chances are in
order for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Ceilings will be somewhat variable across the
terminal forecast area this afternoon as the first round of rain
showers moves east of the Piedmont and the second round of showers
begins to arrive from the west with the stronger upper shortwave.
Most locations will see IFR bases on average, but with some
scattering to MVFR at times, and predominantly MVFR at KCLT until
late afternoon. Abundant near surface moisture topped by mid and
upper-level drying tonight should permit lowering IFR to LIFR fog
and stratus to develop. Stratus could be favored over dense fog
given the potential for modest nighttime mixing, especially in the
mountain valleys on developing northwest flow. The low clouds will
be slow to lift and scatter through Friday morning, but with more
insolation developing Friday afternoon, with a return of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in a more typical diurnal timeframe. Expect
mainly S to SW winds at 10 kt or less early, turning WNW to NW on
Friday. A few low end gusts will be possible at times with any
showers.

Outlook: More in the way of typical diurnal convection is expected
over the weekend. Restrictions are likely at times under any
downpours, but especially in low stratus and fog around daybreak
each morning. Another front will arrive from the northwest early
next week, with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
possible once again Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ010-011-019-101-104-041845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-
245 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the
western Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will cross the Upper Savannah
River Valley from the northwest late this afternoon through early
this evening. Very heavy rainfall rates falling on locations that
received heavy rain earlier in the day may produce localized
flooding. In addition, stronger thunderstorms may develop. Gusty
winds, torrential rainfall, and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the
main threats, but a few storm could produce damaging wind gusts late
this afternoon through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008-
009-012>014-102-103-105>109-041845-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
245 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont and western North
Carolina and the central and eastern Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Additional rounds of rain showers, with a few embedded
thunderstorms, will cross the region from the west through the
evening hours before tapering off overnight. Heavy rainfall from
the showers may impact locations that received heavy rainfall
earlier in the day, and isolated flooding could result. Any storms
that develop will be capable of producing locally very heavy
rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

SCZ019-031815-
Greenwood SC-
144 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM EDT...

At 144 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm 13 miles
south of Abbeville, or over Troy, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Troy and Bradley.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8233 3407 8232 3398 8212 3399 8215
      3397 8217 3397 8218 3399 8221 3402 8225
      3397 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 312DEG 6KT 3399 8231

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ017-018-026-031930-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
254 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Franklin,
southwestern Stephens and southeastern Habersham Counties through 330
PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Toccoa, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Carnesville, Martin, Avalon, Eastanolee and Boydville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 8339 3438 8339 3439 8338 3443 8338
      3446 8340 3447 8342 3449 8352 3462 8337
      3447 8312 3430 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 314DEG 16KT 3451 8339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
330 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

GAZ026-028-032000-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-
330 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Franklin and
southwestern Hart Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carnesville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carnesville, Hartwell, Royston, Lavonia, Canon, Franklin Springs,
Bowersville, Victoria Bryant State Park, Martin and Vanna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320 3425 8323
      3436 8333 3448 8319 3448 8317 3432 8290
      3423 8301 3423 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 314DEG 14KT 3438 8320

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KRENTZ