Tornado Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

265 
WWUS52 KGSP 122254
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
554 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

SCC059-122304-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230112T2330Z/
Laurens SC-
554 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EST for Upstate South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3443 8186 3456 8170 3455 8169 3456 8168
      3455 8168 3455 8166 3452 8165 3446 8170
      3445 8172 3437 8178 3437 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 242DEG 21KT 3444 8173 

$$

WJM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area this evening
bringing rain and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure will
build in behind the front on Friday and linger through the
weekend. A moist cold front will likely bring more precipitation
to our area on Tuesday, with high pressure briefly returning
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 238 PM EST Thursday: The big weather-maker is almost here.
GOES imagery depicts a potent upper low drifting across the
Tennessee Valley, supporting a cold front and organized line of
convection stretching from the eastern Tennessee Valley south
into central AL and GA.  Widespread lightning, gusty outflows, and
pockets of embedded rotation have been noted in this system so far.
As for our CWA - notably lower values of sbCAPE are analyzed over
most of the region, with the exception of NE GA and the extreme
western Upstate; shear is on the rise as a screaming 55-60kt
low-level jet creeps into the western zones...and convection is
already pressing into the southwestern NC mountains.  What is left
of an in situ wedge from this morning's upglide regime is rapidly
breaking down and giving way to solidly warm-sector air across
the Piedmont/Upstate ahead of the advancing cold front and QLCS.
A few supercellular-looking cells have cropped up well south of our
forecast area...indicating that the anticipated discrete convection
is beginning where a capping inversion has been overcome.

Lapse rates will continue to improve as the LLJ enters the forecast
area in full force and increasingly potent upper forcing arrives
in the form of excellent DPVA coupled to a bullseye in upper
divergence.  A solid 2kft mixed layer develops across the Upstate
and Piedmont zones.  In response, instability will skyrocket -
the CAM consensus as well as many of the more aggressive SREF
and NARRE ensemble members indicate that the 250-500 J/kg sbCAPE
values currently analyzed over the Upstate may only be the tip
of the iceberg.  Moreover, the LLJ will support deep-layer shear
values in excess of 60 kts...with the limiting factor being
orientation; the QLCS thus far has a SW-to-NE orientation, and
several guidance sources indicate that bulk shear vectors will
wind up nearly parallel to the main line.  Also, the newest RAP and
HRRR cycles have depicted increasingly straight hodographs...which
are unfavorable for QLCS tornadoes.  The environment is not quite
as conducive, therefore, to rotation as that of the Deep South.
Nonetheless, the system has somewhat overproduced upstream in terms
of rotation, so should instability and shear hold up as it enters
the Carolinas, we can almost certainly anticipated some rotating
segments of our own, possibly including some short-track tornadoes.
0-1km SRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2 and the resulting STPs in
excess of 1.5 across the Upstate demonstrate the potential for
continuing tornadic activity as well as gusty damaging winds.
A passing chance remains that a shallow supercell could crop up
over the far southern Upstate - the 12z HREF's updraft helicity
stripes have been trending more and more dire across most of the
Upstate, after all - but this is almost entirely dependent on
the environment overcoming a stout capping inversion.  And, given
that the QLCS is at least keeping up with, if not outrunning the
existing synoptic forcing, there's low confidence on any discrete
convection getting itself together before the main line arrives.

That is to say, widespread rainfall with lots of associated
lightning and thunder is a near certainty; many of these storms
may become strong to severe.  The greatest threat appears to be
damaging winds in areas where the organized convection outruns
the main line, as well as weak, short-track tornadoes.  As stated
above, the risk of any supercellular convection remains low; most
if not all rotation will likely be observed embedded within the
advancing QLCS.

Tonight, focus shifts to potential wintry impacts in the mountains.
As the cold front sweeps across the forecast area, winds across
the Appalachians will rapidly shift NWly and residual deep-layer
moisture will linger long enough for some snow showers in the
upslope zones along the NC-TN border.  Accumulations look fairly
light for tonight and into tomorrow morning.  However...stout
NW flow appears to continue through the day tomorrow, with
an increasingly convincing Great Lakes connection based on GFS
trajectories.  Ripples of upper vort energy will descend down the
back end of the departing longwave trough axis Friday afternoon and
evening...and the GFS/NAM as well as the RDPS depict 30-60 J/kg
sbCAPE developing over the Balsams and Smokies Friday evening.
This is accompanied by a widespread area of snow squall parameter
values of 1.5-2 across the entire Appalachians and maximized over
the Balsams.  Therefore, with ample low-level moisture likely still
in place Friday evening and overnight, there could be periods
of heavier snowfall where favorable upslope forcing intersects
good instability, and so accumulations have trended slightly
upward at the higher elevations along the NC-TN border counties.
The existing elevation-dependent Winter Weather Advisory / Winter
Storm Warning for those counties has not been modified, and will
still begin at midnight tonight to run through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday: The short-term forecast picks up at 12z
on Saturday with broad upper trofing centered over the Eastern
Seaboard and steep upper ridging to the west. By early Sunday,
the trof axis will begin to move off the Atlantic Coast and upper
ridging will build in its wake. At the sfc, broad Canadian high
pressure will be spreading over our region from the NW as the
period begins early Saturday. NW flow will eventually weaken
late Saturday as the pressure gradient relaxes and the center
of high pressure drifts further east. Low-lvl moisture, however,
is expected to steadily dwindle early Saturday, and any lingering
NW flow snow showers should taper off Saturday morning, but we
could see a few flurries linger into the early afternoon along
the NC/TN border. Gusty winds will continue across the area thru
the day and eventually taper off Saturday night. The center of
the sfc high will move over our area on Sunday bringing dry wx
and near-normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Monday with broad and deep upper trofing moving further off the
Atlantic Coast and upper ridging building over the Southeast in
its wake. On Monday, an embedded, southern-stream upper trof will
lift out of the southern Plains and ride up the ridge. The latest
guidance still has the trof axis passing to our north on Tuesday
and moving offshore by early Wed. As it does, the upper ridge will
amplify over the Southeast again and remain in place into Thurs.
As the period is ending on Thurs, another southern-stream embedded
upper trof will lift out of the SW CONUS and towards our region.

At the sfc, broad Canadian high pressure will be slowly moving
offshore on Monday as another cold front approaches from the west.
The front is still expected to move thru our fcst area on Tuesday
and be east of our CWA by late Tues/early Wed with brief drying
behind the front. A stronger cold front is expected to approach
our fcst area early Thursday as the period is ending. As for the
sensible fcst, no significant changes were needed with dry wx
on Monday and precipitation chances ramping up by early Tuesday.
Thunderstorm potential still appears minimal at best for the fropa
on Tuesday with little (if any) instability present over our area.
PoPs have increased marginally for Wed, but if any precip does
materialize, QPF should be minimal. Otherwise, temps will steadily
warm thru the period with values well-above climatology by mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: It's the calm before the storm this
afternoon.  The western part of the forecast area remains socked
into a weak in situ wedge, resulting in a narrow corridor of IFR
cigs and fog roughly aligned with I-85 south of the NC/SC border.
In general...restrictions are beginning to lift as that residual
wedging begins to scatter out.  West of the forecast area, an
organized line of convection is pushing across the Mississippi
Valley and should impact all the terminals later this afternoon.
High confidence on some embedded TS along with scattered +SHRA
associated with this system.  The Upstate sites in particular are
likely to experience 25-30kt gusts as the line pushes through...and
ahead of the line some isolated areas of southerly LLWS are possible
as a robust low-level jet crosses the area.  Behind the line, a
cold front will sweep across the Carolinas and allow a wind shift
to W/NW overnight.  The ensuing gusty winds will mainly affect
the mountains...with mentionable gusts at KAVL and KHKY overnight.
Can't rule out some isolated areas of fog developing in sheltered
parts of the mountains, but in general winds look to be too strong
to support much fog.  Instead, clouds will slowly scatter out during
the overnight hours (with poor agreement among guidance sources
on how quickly this will occur) and give way to a generally clear
and dry day Friday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure builds in for the weekend, with limited
fog chances each morning in mountain valleys.  The next chance for
active weather and associated restrictions will come late Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Storm Warning above 3500 feet from midnight tonight to
     7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-048>052-058.
     Winter Weather Advisory below 3500 feet from midnight tonight
     to 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
456 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-507>510-SCZ008>014-
019-101>109-132200-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
456 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 23 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>052-058-132200-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
456 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ053-059-062>065-501>506-132200-
Rabun-Habersham-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
456 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong cold front will bring some strong to severe storms to the
region this afternoon and evening. The main threats are cloud-to-
ground lightning and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

SCZ103>106-122200-
Greater Oconee SC-Central Greenville SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
432 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Greenville, Pickens and east central Oconee Counties through 500 PM
EST...

At 432 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Clemson, or over Six Mile, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Easley, Pickens, Clemson, West Greenville,
Berea, Welcome, Travelers Rest, Central and Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8295 3504 8264 3506 8257 3507 8257
      3507 8260 3517 8245 3517 8244 3521 8239
      3519 8238 3518 8237 3485 8234 3481 8248
      3482 8249 3476 8260 3468 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 240DEG 49KT 3480 8282

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             SALUDA                  35.24N 82.35W
01/12/2023  E0.50 INCH       POLK               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF PEA TO HALF-INCH SIZED HAIL AND
            COVERING THE GROUND AND ROADWAYS ACROSS
            HENDERSON AND POLK COUNTIES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
447 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

NCZ506-508-122230-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
447 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDowell and northeastern Rutherford Counties through 530 PM EST...

At 447 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Rutherfordton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Shingle Hollow, Green Hill, Thermal City,
Sunshine, Dysartsville, Union Mills and Fero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EST for western and
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8179 3559 8177
      3561 8176 3560 8174 3561 8172 3559 8171
      3558 8169 3541 8170 3533 8205 3551 8210
      3554 8208 3562 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 243DEG 26KT 3545 8199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
452 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ026-028-SCZ010-104-122215-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
452 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Franklin, Hart, west
central Anderson and southeastern Oconee Counties through 515 PM
EST...

At 452 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Commerce, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hartwell, Carnesville, Royston, Reed Creek, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon,
Franklin Springs, Bowersville and Tugaloo State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EST for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8325
      3426 8330 3423 8335 3426 8334 3433 8339
      3443 8339 3447 8330 3448 8318 3454 8310
      3456 8312 3467 8291 3431 8280 3423 8301
      3423 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 240DEG 49KT 3418 8342

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
516 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

SCZ012-122245-
Laurens SC-
516 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Laurens
County through 545 PM EST...

At 516 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Laurens, or 4 miles northeast of Waterloo, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Joanna, Cross Hill, Waterloo, Mountville and
Kinards.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EST for Upstate South
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 8211 3460 8189 3460 8188 3458 8186
      3460 8184 3457 8180 3456 8175 3457 8175
      3455 8172 3456 8168 3454 8165 3452 8165
      3446 8170 3445 8172 3440 8176 3427 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 230DEG 35KT 3439 8199

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
527 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-107-122300-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-Southern Greenville SC-
527 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Elbert,
eastern Hart, south central Greenville, Anderson and west central
Abbeville Counties through 600 PM EST...

At 527 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Hartwell to 10 miles west
of Elberton. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Elberton, Hartwell, Homeland Park, Belton, Williamston,
Northlake, Iva, Lake Secession and West Pelzer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EST for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8298 3408 8300 3408 8301 3410 8304
      3411 8303 3412 8305 3413 8305 3453 8281
      3477 8231 3416 8258 3403 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 243DEG 44KT 3442 8283 3407 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM