Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
849 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift slowly from Tennessee and across our
area tonight and reach the eastern Carolinas by Tuesday night.
Expect a few strong to severe storms ahead of the front. As drier
high pressure builds across our region in mid week, we will have
milder temperatures and lower humidity into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Evening Update...A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the
NC mtns and Rabun Co in NE GA effective until 07z. Upstream
convection ahead of a cold front is becoming more organized and
widespread due to increasing effShear and large scale forcing.
Thunderstorm warnings have been issued by WFO MRX and expect this
activity to push into the NC mtns by 03z. Damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and large hail will be the main threats with a tornado or
two possible into the overnight hours.

The front should push across the forecast area during the day
Tuesday, as a strong shortwave/upper low swings across the OH
Valley. The front is likely to be near the eastern edge of the
Blue Ridge around midday, when diurnal destabilization picks up and
convection initiates. MLCAPE will likely be over 2000 J/kg east of
the mountains, and effective shear around 30-40 kts, allowing for
some storm organization. The HRRR has been showing updraft helicity
swaths, with a quasi-supercell storm mode across the eastern third
of the forecast area. The updated Day 2 SPC convective outlook
has a marginal risk extended back west across our entire Piedmont,
with a slight just into Rowan and Cabarrus counties. If the frontal
timing slows much more, the slight risk may be extended further
west into our area. Temps should be a little cooler in the west
thanks to the fropa, while the southeast corner will see another
hot and humid day, with heat indices in the 100-105 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 213 PM Monday: Expect the frontal boundary to still be
lurking over the southeastern zones at sunset on Tuesday, with
some storms along the front primarily around metro Charlotte,
but this activity should continue to move out of the fcst area
thru mid-late evening. By daybreak Wednesday we should notice the
air mass change with a continental high building in from the west
with much drier air. The center of the high will remain to our
west and gradually weaken on Wednesday and Thursday while the old
front has stalled along the coast. The proximity of the front might
keep a few showers/storms just to the southeast of the fcst area
on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and the fcst will keep that,
even though it is much more likely the convection will be to our
east both days. Temps will be a welcome relief on Wednesday...maybe
a category below normal with low dewpoints...and still a degree
or two below normal for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 113 PM Monday: The latest model guidance shows a subtle trend
back toward more confidence in a dry solution for the end of the
week into early next week. The main player will be the sprawling
upper anticyclone over the Plains, the center of which may migrate
from OK to IA through the medium range period. The eastern extent
of the anticyclone is shown to gradually expand eastward over the
weekend to eventually envelop the entire forecast area in even
the slowest guidance. The immediate effect will be to suppress
deep convection with a formidable cap and relatively dry boundary
layer, such that even the usual ridgetop shower activity appears
unlikely through the weekend. By Monday, there could be enough
modification to the air mass to allow for some mountain afternoon
convection. For the time being, at least, temperature guidance
looks close to normal, with a warming trend as we start the new
week. Looking ahead, the big question is when/if the center of
the upper anticyclone will ever make it east of the MS River,
and it looks like the answer so far is...not yet.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds this evening with little, if any,
in the way of convec renewal. Upper-level warm air has suppressed
deep tstm activity with only minor llvl triggering available. A band
of showers with embedded tstms will likely push into the NC mtns
overnight and have KAVL with VCSH and MVFR CIGs btw 09z-13z. A
decent chance of a convec organized line of tstms quickly traversing
the area Tue and have included PROB30s for thunder at all sites
except at KAND, which may be too far southwest of the better frontal
forcing. Winds remain aligned sw/ly outside the mtns and become low-
end gusty during the afternoon. Winds at KAVL will persist nw/ly
thru the period with a limited gust potential.

Outlook: A cold front is expected to stall just east of the area,
allowing drier air to filter in from the NW on Wednesday and beyond.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ029.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ071-072-
     082.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ009-011-
     014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
903 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-160115-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
903 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few thunderstorms continuing Tuesday morning may produce localized
damaging wind gusts and hail the size of a quarter or larger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ017-018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>070-501>510-SCZ008-
010-012-013-101>109-160115-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-
Rowan-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-Anderson-
Laurens-Union SC-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
903 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon may produce localized
damaging wind gusts and hail the size of a quarter or larger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-011-014-019-160115-
Elbert-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Abbeville-Chester-
Greenwood-
903 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A few thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon may produce localized
damaging wind gusts and hail the size of a quarter or larger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Tryon               35.23N 82.24W
08/14/2023                   Polk               NC   Utility Company

            Duke Energy reports fallen trees leading to
            power outage on Thermal View Dr.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
802 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

SCZ102-103-105-106-150030-
Central Greenville SC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
802 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Greenville and northeastern Pickens Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 802 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Pickens, or 4 miles south of Table Rock State Park,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pickens, Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State Park,
Pleasant Ridge State Park, Table Rock State Park, Furman University,
Tigerville, Caesars Head State Park and Jones Gap State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8278 3504 8282 3518 8240 3490 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 257DEG 24KT 3497 8272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
849 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

NCZ509-510-SCZ103-106-108-150115-
Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-Northern Spartanburg SC-
Central Greenville SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
849 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Polk, northeastern
Greenville and northwestern Spartanburg Counties through 915 PM
EDT...

At 849 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Columbus, or near Tigerville, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Landrum, Inman, Tryon, Campobello, Tigerville, Lake Bowen,
Lake Robinson, Mill Spring and North Saluda Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8189 3499 8235 3515 8245 3520 8238
      3519 8238 3518 8237 3519 8237 3520 8235
      3522 8235 3538 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 243DEG 29KT 3511 8232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
919 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

SCZ106>109-150200-
Northern Spartanburg SC-Central Greenville SC-
Southern Spartanburg SC-Southern Greenville SC-
919 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Greenville and western Spartanburg Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 918 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Greenville Downtown, or near Taylors, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, Greer,
Taylors, Five Forks, Boiling Springs SC, Duncan, Lyman and Wellford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8237 3501 8238 3506 8191 3477 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 270DEG 27KT 3493 8229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
944 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Marietta                35.03N 82.49W
08/14/2023                   Greenville         SC   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire department reported multiple trees down
            on roadways in the Slater-Marietta area.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1110 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

NCZ051-052-059-150345-
Haywood NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-
1110 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Jackson, northeastern Swain and southwestern Haywood Counties through
1145 PM EDT...

At 1109 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Bryson City, or near Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Maggie Valley, Balsam, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To
Balsam Gap, Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee, Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee,
Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap and
B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
western North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8337 3562 8338 3567 8305 3540 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 269DEG 12KT 3554 8329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG