Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
317 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will cross the area
this morning, posing a risk of isolated strong to severe wind
gusts especially southwest of Interstate 26. Very windy conditions
will persist the remainder of the day following the passage of
a cold front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur
periodically Sunday through Tuesday, with temperatures remaining
mild through that time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 249 AM EDT Saturday: A potent negatively tilted trough will
lift through the Ohio Valley today and into New England by tonight.
At the surface, a deepening low will lift into the Great Lakes
region with an associated frontal boundary pushing into the Southern
Appalachians. The first focus of the forecast period will be ongoing
upstream convection in the form of a QLCS that extends from just
west of Knoxville to northern Alabama as of this writing. This line
of storms will continue to surge east into the Carolinas and
northeast Georgia through the early morning hours. Latest
observations depict a reservoir of upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints
across north Georgia into the Carolinas which is supporting several
hundred J/kg of MLCAPE in a highly sheared environment. A 50-60kt
low-level jet will translate across the area and help enhance
hodograph curvature within the lowest 1km. A marginal threat for
severe storms will continue across the western two thirds of the
area as the line crosses the CWA. the main threat will be for
damaging winds with a secondary threat for line embedded tornadoes.
0-3km shear vectors are quite robust and have supported numerous
upstream mesovortices within northeast surging line segments. With
time, the line will weaken with eastward extent and will likely
become broken as well. What's left of the line should push out of
the area by the mid morning hours.

Conditions will quickly clear through late morning into the
afternoon as the frontal boundary ushers in much drier air. This
will not be a noticeable cold front as a belt of deep southwesterly
flow aloft remains draped from the Southern Plains into the Mid-
Atlantic. The front will become oriented parallel to the upper flow
which will allow it to stall in the vicinity of the South Carolina
Midlands as upper support wanes. In fact, this flow regime will keep
warm 850mb temperatures in place with afternoon high temperatures
surging back into the upper 70s to mid 80s within a very deeply
mixed airmass. Deep mixing up to ~700mb will also support the
transport of gusty winds to the surface, thus the ongoing wind
advisory remains well placed. A fire danger statement will also
remain in place along the I-40 corridor where relative humidity
values will fall to near critical values.

The 00z suite of CAM guidance depicts at least a low-end potential
for convection to redevelop within the vicinity of the stalled
boundary late this afternoon and into the overnight hours.
Confidence in this scenario is low owing to widely varying model
solutions and nebulous forcing as the main wave will have lifted
well away from the area. However, parameter space on the warm side
of the boundary will be quite favorable for severe convection IF a
rouge storm(s) is able to initiate. Will carry low PoPs across the
lower Piedmont, but will not advertise a severe threat for now owing
to low confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Sat: Weak high pressure will be present over the
Mid-Atlantic states Sunday, beneath quasi-zonal upper flow on the
northern periphery of a broad subtropical high. Temperatures will
fall back perhaps a category from Saturday's readings, and dewpoints
probably will dip several degrees lower within the high. Winds will
remain seasonably breezy.

By Sunday morning the cold front will have stalled along or south of
the I-20 corridor; convection looks to be ongoing near the front in
MS/AL. A jet streak will amplify over the Mid-Atlantic coast,
providing some upper divergence over our CWA within its right-rear
quadrant. This will help to reactivate the front, resulting in PoPs
spreading back into the CWA from the south during Sunday. Synoptic
models generally depict vortices emanating from the MS/AL convection
and advecting toward the Carolinas during the day.  The NAM seems to
respond to those vortices more than the other models, leading it to
bring PoPs back several hours sooner.  Of note, the NAM also depicts
a swath of SBCAPE on the immediate warm side of the boundary, which
in its depiction includes some of our southernmost zones. This would
coincide with large deep shear parameters afforded by the tight
gradient aloft. SPC Day 2 retains that part of our CWA in Marginal
Risk, which appears contingent on a NAM-like solution.
Elevated storms above the warm front certainly are a possibility so
we will carry a broad area of mentionable thunder chances.

Model consensus continues to suggest the best PoPs will be Sunday
night or Monday morning, as a weak low ejects from the Western
trough, crosses the Midwest, and backs the flow over the front around
that time. Lapse rates improve by the same token, and a few elevated
t-storms will remain possible during that time. The jet streak and
Midwest low will both track eastward during the day Monday; the upper
divergence will exit our area accordingly, and the frontal boundary,
which will effectively be stalled, will then sag southward again.
Model solutions begin to diverge beyond that.  Trailing the low, a
cold front will push southeast across the Ohio Valley but
models/ensemble members are not yet in good agreement as to whether
it reaches our area at all. It does look like PoPs should taper off
for a time. Cloud cover lingering thru much of the day will have some
impact on temps even if we do not feel any impact of CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 AM Sat: The GFS and NAM actually come back into agreement
Monday night, both depicting dry high pressure settling south thru
the CWA, and prolonging a lull in precip chances into Tuesday
morning. That high would reinforce a stalled boundary to our south,
although there will be some vestige of the earlier boundary in that
area regardless. The next feature of interest will be another
shortwave moving thru the Midwest Tuesday. This wave is better
defined than the previous couple, but models vary in whether it
reactivates the front, and/or how quickly the associated precip
returns to the CWA. The ECMWF, GDPS, and a number of GEPS members
bring precip back to the area Monday night and Tuesday by that
mechanism. The models reconverge Tuesday night in depicting the
shortwave axis passing the Appalachians along with a stronger cold
front, This may result in NW flow PoPs as well as strong wind gusts
in higher elevations, which could warrant at least a Wind Advisory.
The incoming airmass will bring temps back to near seasonal normals
and PoPs to near zero for Wed, and likely Thu as well. The sfc high
is still depicted as being transitory, migrating to the East Coast by
Thursday night. By that time a very deep Western trough will have
evolved, supporting Plains cyclogenesis Thursday and Friday. Moisture
will return ahead of the resultant cold front, which could reach the
area as soon as Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The TAF period will start out with VFR
conditions at all terminals as high clouds gradually fill in across
the area. The main focus will be a line of showers and thunderstorms
that will move through the area during the early morning hours.
Brief reduction in visibility and ceiling can be expected as this
activity moves through along with the potential for gusty winds.
Thereafter, clouds will quickly scatter out as dry air moves in, but
winds will remain gusty through the afternoon.

Outlook: Moisture returns Sunday into early next week. This
may result in another period of associated restrictions at area
terminals. Dry high pressure returns the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A deeply dry airmass will filter into the area today behind a
frontal passage. Mixing heights rise quite deep and tap into strong
wind energy which will translate fairly strong and gusty winds to
the surface across the area. Surface dewpoints will also mix out and
allow for RH values into the lower 30 percent range. After
coordination with NC land managers, a Fire Danger Statement will be
maintained for the NC Piedmont zones this afternoon where small
fuels and brush will likely remain the driest.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Increased Fire Danger from noon EDT today through this evening
     for NCZ035>037-056-057-501>506.
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ101>103.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...TW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ010-104>107-251945-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Anderson-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms is likely to pass
through the area this morning. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with any of the thunderstorms. The line of storms could
pose an additional risk of severe weather, in the form of damaging
wind gusts. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-SCZ101>103-251945-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Also, a line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass
through the area this morning. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with any of the thunderstorms. The line of storms will pose
an additional risk of severe weather, in the form of damaging wind
gusts. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ501-503-505-251945-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Increased Fire Danger.

Also, a line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms will pass
through the area this morning. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with any of the thunderstorms. The line of storms will pose
an additional risk of severe weather, in the form of damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ008-009-013-014-108-109-251945-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-251945-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ029-SCZ011-012-019-251945-
Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
343 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms is likely to pass
through the area this morning. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with any of the thunderstorms. The line of storms could pose
an additional risk of severe weather, in the form of damaging wind
gusts. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast for Sunday. These storms
may pose a risk of severe weather, in the form of localized damaging
winds and/or hail greater than one inch in diameter.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
321 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-501>506-260000-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-
321 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

The combination of gusty southwest winds of 25-35 mph, relative
humidity values as low as 25 percent, and dry fuels will result in
elevated fire danger conditions today over the northern foothills
and northwestern Piedmont of North Carolina.

Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether
you can burn today. If you do burn, use extreme caution since fires
can quickly get out of hand under these conditions.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>