Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

265 
WWUS52 KGSP 250038
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
838 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

NCC025-097-159-250100-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-230825T0100Z/
Cabarrus NC-Iredell NC-Rowan NC-
838 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES...

At 838 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
Kannapolis, or near Enochville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Kannapolis, Mooresville, Landis, Enochville, Coddle Creek Reservoir,
Mount Ulla and China Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8074 3547 8078 3551 8078 3551 8081
      3564 8090 3569 8079 3554 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 313DEG 13KT 3555 8069 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
740 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat will build through the end of the week as a large
upper high over the Plains continues to control our weather from
afar. High temperatures may flirt with records Friday and Saturday,
although there is much uncertainty about how much thunderstorm
activity will affect that. A surface cold front is expected to drop
south across the region late Saturday to cool us down for the early
part of next week, while providing a focus for showers and storms
from Sunday through Tuesday with the front settling just south of
our area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday: Convection has moved out of northeast
Georgia. The only area currently seeing strong to severe storms is
the northern North Carolina Piedmont. Confidence on whether this
activity will push southward enough to reach Charlotte, remains
very low. No major changes were needed as this update is mainly for
aviation. Otherwise, we remain on the eastern edge of a retreating
595dm anticyclone over the Great Plains, which places us squarely in
the favorable corridor for some MCS action over the near term. With
an environment ripe with DCAPE and marginal for bulk shear, the
severe potential looks reasonably high, mainly across the North
Carolina Piedmont now. SPC's Marginal Risk for Severe Weather
appears well-placed...with damaging winds being the primary threat.
The 12z HREF shows almost all its members depicting the activity
over the northern North Carolina Piedmont to push south and east
across the rest of the NC Piedmont and eastern SC Upstate later this
evening. With the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing DCAPE values up to
1200-1400 J/kg and SBCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg across these areas,
strong to severe storm development remains possible.

Tonight, convection should fizzle out with the loss of daytime
heating.  Mostly clear skies are expected (with the caveat that
if convection overproduces, there'll be some debris / high cloud
cover the first half of the night). Lows are expected to remain a
category above normal virtually everywhere. Some mountain valley fog
is expected, with higher confidence than this morning owing to
modestly higher dewpoints. This should quickly scatter out come
daybreak, leading into a mostly dry day Friday. CAMs have backed off
on any MCS intrusion into the Carolinas tomorrow...with the NAMnest
still depicting a dying MCS arriving late Friday morning in the
northern NC mountains, but the other CAMs dry through the day. Of
perhaps greater concern will be tomorrow's heat: with high temps
climbing into the upper 90s, and dewpoints at least in the lower
70s...heat index values will climb to just shy of heat advisory
criteria, making for an uncomfortable, if sub-advisory, afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: As we move into the short term on Friday
night, the upper ridge will still be in control of the Southern
Plains, nosing into the Southeast with downsloping NW flow across
the area. Bit of a surface trough will be in place across the
Piedmont Friday night into Saturday. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement with ridiculously warm temperatures for late August on
Saturday afternoon and flirting with record highs, though a couple
of degrees below. Some question as to whether southern portions of
the CWA might make it to Heat Advisory levels but can refine that
over the next couple of days to get a better handle on dewpoint
confidence as well as try to figure out what convective debris might
be blowing over. As with previous forecast, ended up undercutting
NBM a degree or so considering CAMs are not handling afternoon
convection very well today and could be more cloud cover than
expected. Additionally, with potential mixing out of subsidence
inversion in the afternoon, increased convective chances (slight
chance Piedmont to chance mountains) would bring cloud cover on its
own.

Meanwhile, changes are brewing as the upper ridge begins to
retrograde again Saturday night into sunday and upper trough slowly
slides down from the Great Lakes, pushing a boundary across the
area. Shortwave pushes across the area Sunday afternoon and evening
with an increase of deep-layer moisture with PWs over 2" encroaching
into the area, inching close to the climatological max curve. Not
looking at a widespread heavy rain by any means, but some much-
needed rain for parts of the area for sure. High temps will be
several degrees cooler given the cloud cover and moisture, which
will usher in the pattern change for next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper trough will continue to deepen over
the Eastern half of the country as we move into the extended. The
boundary that was in place on Sunday will still be over us as we
start the work week, with continued widespread cloud cover and
precipitation. Bit of a diurnal trend will continue with higher pops
expected in the afternoon and more of a lull overnight, but well
above climo trends expected given the very high PWs (again remaining
near climatological highs) in place and high theta-es. WPC Marginal
for Monday continues, though given the run of dry weather we've had
and drought conditions expanding across the Carolinas, flash
flooding risk is thankfully minimal at this time, but will have to
be monitored. Precip chances continue Tuesday before the system is
finally kicked out early Wednesday. ECMWF has shown hints of a
tropical system developing along the boundary but GFS not too
interested in this scenario, still plenty of time to figure that out.

Temperatures trend from above normal through the period, given the
reduced thicknesses, cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: As of 00Z, seeing TSRA confined to the
northern NC Piedmont. Confidence on whether this activity will be
able to track far enough south to reach KCLT remains very low. So,
went ahead and removed the TEMPO this update. Generally speaking,
the 00z TAF period is expected to be VFR. However, with a more moist
airmass in place, mountain valley fog may form around daybreak
Friday. Confidence on whether this will reach KAVL is low, but did
maintain the IFR fog mention at the terminal for now. Winds should
generally be NW at KAVL through the period. Winds elsewhere are
currently W'ly and are expected to mostly turn SW'ly tonight. Winds
east of the mtns return to W'ly Friday morning, becoming SW'ly
towards the end of the TAF period. There is the potential for winds
to briefly turn N/NE'ly at KGSP and KGMU early Friday afternoon.
CAMs generally show drier conditions tonight into Friday. However, a
few CAMs depict the potential for an MCS to track out of the north
and cross the western Carolinas sometime Friday. Confidence on this
remains very low due to model disagreement on both the coverage and
timing.

Outlook: Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this weekend in association with a cold front. Mountain
valley fog and low stratus are likely around daybreak each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 08-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      92 1998     65 1908     69 2020     50 1952
                1936                                1930
                                                    1925
   KCLT      98 1943     71 1927     75 1903     56 1952
                            1908        1880
   KGSP      98 1943     72 1929     73 2000     51 1888
                                        1968

RECORDS FOR 08-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1943     64 1879     69 1995     49 1952
                                                    1917
   KCLT     100 1954     65 1908     76 1903     55 1942
   KGSP     100 1943     70 1902     75 1943     55 1917

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...AR
CLIMATE...GSP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ101>103-
260015-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, The North
Carolina Mountains and the South Carolina Mountains.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-260015-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Piedmont of North Carolina
and the Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible across
the northern and western North Carolina Piedmont and eastern South
Carolina Upstate through late this evening. Any thunderstorm that
develops will produce cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and
heavy rainfall. Any storms that become severe will have the potential
to produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to climb up to near record high values on
Friday afternoon, with upper 90s common east of the mountains. A
slight increase in humidity may push the apparent temperature into
the 100 to 105 range in the afternoon in some locations. A Heat
Advisory might be needed if the forecast remains unchanged.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068-508-510-SCZ010>012-019-104>109-260015-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the Piedmont
of North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate of South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to climb up to near record high values on
Friday afternoon, with upper 90s common east of the mountains. A
slight increase in humidity may push the apparent temperature into
the 100 to 105 range in the afternoon in some locations. A Heat
Advisory might be needed if the forecast remains unchanged.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
707 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Dewy Rose         34.21N 82.96W
08/24/2023                   Elbert             GA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on power line. Time estimated by
            radar.

&&

RWH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
718 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Spencer           35.71N 80.48W
08/24/2023                   Rowan              NC   Trained Spotter

            Tree down blocking road.

&&

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
727 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

NCZ036-037-057-250015-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-
727 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Davie,
east central Iredell and northwestern Rowan Counties through 815 PM
EDT...

At 727 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Mocksville, or 5 miles north of Cleveland, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cooleemee, Cleveland, Piedmont Research Station, Woodleaf and Cool
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8046 3574 8046 3560 8062 3584 8080
      3591 8072 3582 8047 3580 8047 3580 8048
      3579 8048 3577 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 308DEG 20KT 3581 8066

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

NCZ036-056-057-071-072-250030-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Cabarrus, southeastern Catawba, southeastern Iredell, north central
Mecklenburg and southwestern Rowan Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 739 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Statesville, or 4 miles northwest of Mooresville,
moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Statesville, Cornelius,
Mooresville, Davidson, Enochville, Troutman and Lake Norman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8093 3548 8095 3549 8095 3551 8096
      3553 8095 3553 8094 3555 8097 3572 8100
      3577 8084 3544 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 338DEG 26KT 3564 8086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JPT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
742 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Salisbury               35.66N 80.48W
08/24/2023                   Rowan              NC   Trained Spotter

            2 large trees snapped. Parts may be on a
            house. Trees down throughout the city.

&&

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
759 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

NCZ036-057-250045-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-
759 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Iredell and
west central Rowan Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 758 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Statesville, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Statesville, Troutman, Lake Norman State Park, Mooresville, Lake
Norman, Mount Ulla and Doolie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8061 3558 8093 3561 8093 3562 8092
      3563 8094 3586 8096 3588 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 342DEG 22KT 3582 8087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JPT