Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
737 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches out of the north tonight with showers and
thunderstorms continuing into the evening. A few storms may become
strong to severe. The cold front then tracks across the forecast
area on Sunday before pushing south of the region Sunday night. High
pressure returns behind the cold front early to middle of next week,
bringing cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 551 PM EDT Saturday: Thunder has finally broken containment up
and down the Blue Ridge, with a more coherent line of thundershowers
upstream...and just beginning to encroach on the NC/TN border.
With the rapid loss of upper-level cloud cover, temps have shot
upward, and some 3000-3500 J/kg of sbCAPE has managed to develop
east of the mountains...which should support robust updrafts
through the coming hours.  So, high temps needed to be bumped up
a tad...but will still come in among the lower third of guidance
for this afternoon.  All this ahead of an advancing cold front,
now apparently eeking its way into the Tennessee Valley.

Otherwise...the cold front will track into the Carolinas into
tonight while the area of low pressure gradually pushes off
the Carolina Coast tonight.  It remains uncertain how thunder
will evolve over the next six hours; CAMs continue to depict the
advancing line of convection making tracks across the CWA through
late this evening and into the first part of tonight...but with
some loss of veracity as instability wanes after dark.  It seems
likely, though, that thunder will cross the mountains over the
next 1-2 hours, then make a run at the Piedmont and Upstate zones
through midnight or later.  SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook
places a Slight Risk across the northern NC mountains, with a
Marginal Risk across the rest of western NC, extreme NE GA, and the
northern SC Upstate. Despite only 15-20 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear,
strong to severe storms can be expected given a very unstable
environment with ample DCAPE.  Damaging wind gusts are the main
potential threats.  Lows tonight will be around 3-6 degrees above
climo thanks to lingering cloud cover.  Mountain valley fog and
low stratus should return again overnight into daybreak Sunday.

The cold front will push southward across the CWA on Sunday leading
to another round of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
just ahead of the FROPA. Capped PoPs to chance for now as CAMs do
not agree on the coverage of storms Sunday afternoon. The Day 2 SPC
Severe Weather Outlook has most of NE GA, the SC Upstate, and the
southern NC Piedmont in a Marginal risk for severe storms. Thus,
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. Damaging wind
gusts look to be the main potential threat. Temps will be much
warmer Sunday due to lower cloud cover and downslope flow. Highs
will end up around 3-6 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Saturday: A series of short waves moving through
the northwest flow over the area will keep the East Coast trough in
place through the period. A weak frontal boundary will move to our
south Sunday night but stall there Monday. Diurnal convection ends
Sunday evening. With drier air in place on Monday, the forecast is
looking dry for now, but that could change if the boundary stalls
over the Upstate. Convection associated with an MCS boundary or
short wave/MCV could move in from the NW or redevelop over the area
on Tuesday, but details remain uncertain. Temps cool on Monday but
remain above normal. The good news is drier dew points will keep
Heat Index values below 100. Highs cool to near or slightly below
normal on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: NW flow over the area Wednesday weakens
Thursday along with some height rises as the east coast trough moves
east and an anti-cyclone attempts to move east out of Texas. The
advance of the anti-cyclone is halted Friday, and even retrogrades,
as a series of short wave move across the area from the NW
reinstating a flat trough. At the surface, mainly dry high pressure
over the area Wednesday moves off shore with southerly flow
returning Thursday. A weak cold front approaches from the NW Friday,
moving into the area on Saturday. The result is an active period
with diurnal convection developing Thursday through Saturday after a
dry Wednesday. Temps a little below normal Wednesday and Thursday,
rise back a little above normal Friday, then back to near normal
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A line of severe thunderstorms is tracking
across the forecast area and located across the western Piedmont
as of 2330z.  Retained TEMPOs for TSRA at all terminals as
the line is expected to push east by about 03z...with trailing
showers handled with a VCSH extending later into the evening.
Some overnight drying will permit gradual clearing of low-level
cloud cover, which should permit another round of low-end VIS
restrictions in some of the mountain valleys.  In particular,
with KAVL having already received a good amount of rainfall this
evening, it seems like a better case for some fog than last night.
Whatever mountain valley restrictions develop should lift quickly
after sun-up, giving way to FEW/SCT cloud cover through the morning
and early afternoon.  Prevailing VFR will persist for the remainder
of the period...with any restrictions limited to another round of
afternoon convection...handled with PROB30s for now.  It's unclear
how coverage will evolve at this point: with a frontal boundary
expected to settle across at least part of the forecast area by
afternoon, the southeast terminals most likely to be under the gun
going into the evening.  As of yet, CAMs are inconsistent in their
handling of tomorrow's thunder.  Winds will become increasingly
NNW through the overnight...with periods of ENE wind even possible
going into Sunday as the front pushes south.

Outlook: Drier conditions will return early next week as high
pressure pushes in behind the cold front.  Fog and low stratus
will be possible in the mountain valleys each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
859 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ101>103-
310100-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
859 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms will linger across the area through the rest of
the evening hours, and should wane by around midnight. Cloud-to-
ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-310100-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
859 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms will linger across the area through the rest of
the evening hours, and should wane by around midnight. Cloud-to-
ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A combination of high temperatures and elevated humidity will result
in Heat Index values of 100 to 105 degrees across the Piedmont
Sunday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
828 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE China Grove       35.58N 80.56W
07/29/2023                   Rowan              NC   Trained Spotter

            Reports of trees on powerlines and one on
            roadway on north and east side of China
            Grove.

&&

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
835 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

NCZ057-072-300100-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
835 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cabarrus and
southwestern Rowan Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 835 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kannapolis, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kannapolis, Concord, Harrisburg, Landis, Enochville, Mt Pleasant,
Coddle Creek Reservoir, Charlotte Motor Speedway and China Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8039 3527 8066 3531 8068 3534 8069
      3536 8071 3548 8078 3550 8079 3551 8078
      3551 8074 3553 8074 3559 8048 3541 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 328DEG 35KT 3547 8063

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
840 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

NCZ082-SCZ009-012>014-300115-
Union NC-York SC-Laurens SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
840 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Laurens,
Chester, southeastern York and southern Union Counties through 915 PM
EDT...

At 840 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles southeast of York to 13 miles west of
Chester to 4 miles southwest of Union. Movement was southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Hill, Union, Chester, Newport, Lesslie, Monarch Mill, Fort Lawn,
Carlisle, Mcconnells and Richburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8069 3484 8075 3483 8089 3470 8086
      3455 8105 3457 8142 3450 8142 3449 8149
      3445 8154 3453 8164 3438 8178 3439 8178
      3461 8185 3467 8183 3476 8149 3504 8115
      3491 8087 3484 8087 3485 8080 3488 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 309DEG 30KT 3496 8117 3473 8145 3466 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
842 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ029-SCZ010>013-019-107-109-300115-
Elbert GA-Laurens SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-Abbeville SC-
Anderson SC-Greenwood SC-Union SC-Southern Greenville SC-
842 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Elbert,
Laurens, south central Greenville, south central Spartanburg,
southeastern Anderson, Abbeville, southwestern Union and Greenwood
Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 841 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Laurens to 10 miles east of
Elberton. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Laurens, Abbeville, Clinton, Honea Path, Ware Shoals,
Calhoun Falls, Ninety Six, Joanna and Due West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Greenwood, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8265 3397 8278 3421 8277 3454 8236
      3467 8185 3453 8164 3437 8178 3430 8190
      3420 8194 3397 8230 3397 8231 3406 8233
      3406 8244 3408 8248 3407 8253 3401 8260
      3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 333DEG 28KT 3453 8190 3414 8269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
900 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

NCZ071-072-082-300145-
Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
900 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Cabarrus, southeastern Mecklenburg and Union Counties through 945 PM
EDT...

At 900 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Downtown Concord to 8
miles northwest of Indian Land. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, South Charlotte, East Charlotte, Matthews, Mint Hill, Indian
Trail, Weddington, Stallings, Unionville and Pineville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3511 8093
      3542 8044 3537 8038 3518 8050 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 322DEG 26KT 3535 8049 3511 8093

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8