Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the region from the northwest
this evening and settle south of the area tonight. Drier air will
filter into the area over the weekend into early next week. Cooler
temperatures also arrive over the weekend, with temperatures and
humidity then slowly rising again through the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 557 pm EDT Friday: No major changes this forecast
update.  Continued drying has inhibited much instability from
developing...and so convection remains isolated along the residual
boundary across the Upstate...and so it's one of those rare days
when the NAMnest is nailing it.  So, still expect isolated severe
along the southern and western zones.  Any convection that develops
will diminish this evening.

Late tonight into Sat morning, an area of height falls will
overspread the southern/central Appalachians and vicinity, with a
strengthening upper jet max of ~80 kts expected to extend from the
TN Valley into the Mid-Atlantic by 12Z. Coincident upper divergence
over our forecast area will bring about increasing chances for
convection toward daybreak. Instability will obviously be limited in
light of the time of day, and forcing for UVV rather tame, so PoPs
are generally limited to the 30-40% range. In fact, thunder may be
difficult to come by during that time. How the diurnal convective
picture evolves on Saturday will be muddled by morning clouds/
possible showers, and by an increasingly unfavorable synoptic
picture. Nevertheless, destabilization should be sufficient
to allow for typical coverage of afternoon/evening showers and
storms. While min temps are expected to be very close to normal,
lower heights on Saturday combined with morning cloud cover are
expected to yield maxes around a category or so below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday: A broad mid to upper level trof will be in
place across the region during the short range period. This will
lead to temperatures a few degrees below normal on Sunday and near
normal on Monday. Despite limited instability, the general
troughiness of the flow will lead to scattered mainly diurnal
showers and storms each day with the higher chance of rain in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday: The trof will begin to lift north of the
area on Tuesday with ridging becoming the dominant mid to upper
level feature Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will
slowly rise through the week reaching the middle 90s in the Piedmont
toward the end of the week, which is several degrees above normal
for this time of year.

A mainly diurnal convective pattern will occur through this period
with the highest chance of storms in the mountains during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Relatively inactive convective weather is
expected this afternoon/evening...and in fact, there is one lone
shower over the Terminal Forecast Area as of early afternoon. Some
increase in coverage is expected over the next couple of hours, and
coverage over western areas (i.e., KAVL and KAND) is expected to be
just enough to warrant VCSH/VCTS at those sites by late afternoon.
Can't completely rule out some activity near the other sites, but
instability is expected to be too limited and convective coverage
too limited to warrant any TAF mention at this time. Otherwise,
winds are expected to be between WSW and WNW at around 10 kts
through the afternoon, becoming more NW or N and light overnight.
VFR conditions are generally expected, although some late
night/early morning mtn valley restrictions are possible. Although
any afternoon/evening convection is expected to dissipate by
midnight, an upper level disturbance may bring morning SHRA to the
area, warranting Prob30s for SHRA at most sites beginning around
daybreak.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms will continue
this weekend into early next week. Any convection will potentially
cause periodic restrictions, and morning fog is a possibility,
mainly in the mountain valleys and in locations where it rains the
day before.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
438 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-505>510-
SCZ008>014-019-101>109-220845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
438 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the North Carolina mountains, Upstate of South
Carolina, and northeast Georgia. Some storms may become strong to
severe, with the primary threats being straight-line damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning. The best chance for
severe weather will be in the Upper Savannah River Valley. Locally
heavy rainfall leading to isolated flooding may develop as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504-220845-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
438 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.