Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
310 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across the area today. Severe storms will be
possible with the front, especially across the eastern half of the
forecast area. Drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 am EDT Sunday: Cold pool-driven convection is holding
tough across the southern Appalachians early this morning, and will
move quickly across the NC mountains over the next couple of hours.
Most unstable CAPE drops off rather quickly from west->east across
western NC, but the convection has enough momentum that locally
strong-to-damaging wind gusts are likely across the mtns...esp the
TN border counties...before the rugged terrain is able to cause
enough cold pool disruption to significantly weaken the lead line
cells. It's also looking unlikely that the MCS will completely fall
apart over the high terrain, so likely PoPs are carried across much
of the Upstate and northeast GA...although the potential for
strong-to- severe wind gusts will be much less there than over the
mtns.

Otherwise, height falls will overspread the East through the day as
a vigorous upper low wobbles over the Great Lakes and vicinity,
providing ample support for UVV on the synoptic scale across our
area this afternoon, while surface/lee side trough will provide a
low level focus for ascent. While there is some potential for
morning debris cloudiness to delay diurnal destabilization, much of
this cloud cover is expected to diminish by early afternoon...and
with the eastern extent of the elevated mixed layer hovering atop
the region (very steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km...about
as steep as they ever get around these parts) instability will
quickly increase. Around 3000 J/kg of sbCAPE appears to be a good
bet by mid-afternoon. 30-40kts of deep-layer wind shear oriented
more or less perpendicular to the zone of low-level convergence
along the surface trough will support supercell structures, with the
primary convective threats coming from damaging downbursts and large
hail...including the potential for a few instances of very large
hail of 2" diameter or more in light of the steep lapse rates/low
wet bulb zero heights/beefy CAPE in the ice growth zone. The highest
severe storm threat is expected across the NC Piedmont, but they are
possible just about anywhere. While low level winds are expected to
be more or less unidirectional... limiting the shear and helicity in
the storm inflow layer, a brief tornado will be possible with any
supercells exhibiting deviant motion.

For the most part, convection is expected to move east this evening,
but lingering instability will yield some potential for isolated
activity into the early part of the overnight, esp across the
Piedmont. Min temps will be close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday: Upper low over the Great Lakes will be the
dominant feature as we start the short term, with the surface cold
front just to our east. Could see some NW flow shower/thunderstorm
activity impacting the northern tier of the forecast area Tuesday6
afternoon as the low digs just a bit more before it starts to lift
Tuesday night into Wednesday; meanwhile ridging over the Southern
Plains will begin to work its way east and high pressure will build
into the region, with generally quiet conditions taking over for mid-
week. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Monday: Extended will begin Friday morning with low-
amplitude ridging over the Southern Plains, trough still in place
over the East, and another trough in place over the west. Series of
shortwaves coming around the upper ridge will impact the Southeast
as they dive down the NW flow aloft, enhanced by an upper low
starting to dive down out of Canada at the start of the period,
leading to what looks like an active weekend. The deep-layer
downsloping NW flow leads to increasing temperatures as we move into
the weekend. Guidance is not at all in agreement on timing or
coverage of convective activity, but enough general agreement on
overall idea that have increased pops into the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A rather complex/busy forecast period is
expected across much of the Terminal Forecast Period through this
evening. The most immediate concern is the potential for a brief
period of fog and/or low stratus over the next couple of hours in
locations that saw appreciable rainfall Sunday afternoon/evening.
(This would include all sites except KCLT/KHKY). This forecast is
somewhat complicated by elevated surface winds, as well as mid/high
level cloud cover that will begin increasing across this area
shortly. These factors will work to inhibit restrictions in the
immediate near term. For the most part, we've opted a brief period
of tempo MVFR conditions between 07 and 09Z. After that...attention
turns to an area of organized strong-to-severe convection currently
moving rather quickly southeast through northeast TN. While this is
expected to weaken as it approaches...and esp as it crosses the
southern Appalachians in the 1-3 hour time frame, it appears to have
enough momentum to hold together across western areas...warranting
tempos for TSRA at KAVL and the upstate SC terminals prior to 12Z.
Gusty winds from the NW should accompany the storms through
KAVL...and possibly at the SC terminals.

Morning convection should quickly drop south of the area within an
hour or so of sunrise, with steadily clearing skies/VFR conditions
expected. Scattered convection will then redevelop this afternoon,
with the best chances expected across western NC (esp KHKY and KCLT).
Prob30s for TSRA are included at most sites this afternoon. There is
an elevated risk for strong-to-severe storms producing hail and
locally damaging wind gusts. Convective chances will steadily
diminish this evening. Generally light SW winds this morning will
increase to 10-15 kts and become gusty in some areas this
afternoon.

Outlook: Slightly drier conditions will limit the potential for
diurnal convection and overnight restrictions Tuesday through
Thursday with VFR expected to prevail.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
933 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-270145-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
933 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of storms moving across eastern Tennessee tonight and into the
overnight has the potential to cross the NC mountains, producing
brief damaging wind gusts. Brief heavy rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A cold front will cross the area on Monday and bring a chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon. These storms
may become organized and potentially produce damaging winds and
large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ010>012-019-101>109-270145-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
933 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of storms moving across eastern Tennessee tonight and into the
overnight has the potential to cross the NC mountains, producing
brief damaging wind gusts. Brief heavy rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front on Monday may
become strong to briefly severe with damaging winds and large hail
as the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
946 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Ninety Six          34.11N 82.03W
06/25/2023                   Greenwood          SC   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple trees across the road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NCZ058-260545-
Graham NC-
122 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Graham County
through 145 AM EDT...

At 121 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robbinsville, or over Town Of Santeetlah, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Fontana Village, Lake Santeetlah,
Fontana Lake, Stecoah, Cheoah, Tapoco and Nantahala.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8382 3544 8381 3545 8380 3543 8365
      3544 8364 3543 8361 3543 8359 3537 8359
      3534 8362 3532 8369 3530 8370 3528 8368
      3525 8370 3526 8372 3525 8373 3525 8378
      3526 8379 3525 8393 3543 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 265DEG 28KT 3535 8386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP