Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the forecast area this
afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe,
mainly across the western half of the forecast area. The cold front
pushes across the area on Monday. Severe storms will be possible
with the front, especially across the eastern half of the forecast
area. Drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3:05 PM EDT Sunday: The MCS that tracked over KY and then
TN earlier has begun to move into the NC mtns over the past hour
or so. It's weakened a fair amount as it moved into our area, but
could certainly strengthen again especially as it moves off the
Escarpment and has more instability to work with.

Otherwise, what's left of a persistent upper trof will finally
move off the Atlantic Coast today and tonight as upper heights
rise atop the CWA and a flattening shortwave ridge axis moves
over the southern Appalachians. Convection currently across the
upper Midwest is expected to organized into an MCS and drop S/SE
along the western periphery of the upper ridge and into the TN
Valley this afternoon. It's still looking like the more robust
portion of the MCS will fire up across northern AL and north GA
this afternoon as instability should be considerably higher over
that region. However, current fcst soundings do indicate better
destabilization potential (compared to yesterday) across our CWA
this afternoon/evening, and it's quite possible that the eastern
extent of a larger scale outflow bndy and/or MCV could cause
convective initiation across our western zones today. Regardless,
terrain effects should allow for sct deep convection that will
move SE into the Upstate and Piedmont and sfc-based CAPE in the
1500 to 2000 J/kg range should allow for an uptick in the potential
for pulse severe storms. Diurnal convection should diminish by mid-
evening or so, however, another area of organized convection still
appears to originate over the Midwest and make a run toward the
Appalachians between midnight and daybreak. During that time, the
ridge axis is expected to have moved over the East Coast, resulting
in backing of the mean deep-layer flow more to the W/NW. As such,
this activity will have a better chance of making a run toward our
western zones. Strong upstream instability and impressive shear
pose the potential for a long-lived (albeit weakening) MCS with a
well-developed cold pool that could bring strong-to-damaging wind
gusts, mainly to the NC mtns. The ability of this system to maintain
its strength over the high terrain remains uncertain, but it will
need to be watched closely over the near-term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: An upper trough over the eastern Great
Lakes region will slowly progress eastward into the Northeast
through the period. Meanwhile, a large upper ridge over Texas will
gradually build over the southern CONUS while the center nudges
eastward into Louisiana. Upper troughing over the Carolinas will
gradually push east through the short term, but will remain over the
CWA. Shortwaves embedded within the base of the trough will track
periodically over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. At
the sfc, the cold front that will bring impacts during the near term
period (see above) should be east of the CWA and tracking towards
the Coastal Carolinas by early Tuesday morning. NW'ly flow behind
the FROPA may allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the far northern tier of
the CWA. Drier conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s east of the mtns each day,
with lows in the low to mid 60s. Temps be a few to several degrees
cooler across the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: The upper high remains centered over the
Ark-La-Tex region Thursday into early Friday before gradually
flattening out late Friday into the weekend. Shortwaves will round
the northeastern side of the ridge, periodically diving into the
western Carolinas Thursday into the weekend. A warm front looks to
lift north across the Carolinas Friday into Friday night, with a
cold front approaching out of the west during the weekend. This
should help keep the pattern active through the long term. Capped
PoPs to chance through the fcst period as 12Z global model guidance
is not in agreement regarding the timing/coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late week into the weekend. Highs will reach the upper
80s to lower 90s each day, leading to temps around 3-6 degrees above
climo.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Sct convection is expected this afternoon
across the mtns and foothills and will likely hold up over the
Upstate as well. I included TEMPOs for TSRA at all sites (except
KCLT) from roughly 20 to 24z to account for the first wave of
activity. I expect the convection to weaken considerably by the
time it reaches KCLT, so I just have a VCSH for them beginning
around 22z. Another round of organized/decaying convection is
expected to make a run for the southern Appalachians toward
daybreak. Much of the latest CAM guidance has this activity
holding up better as it moves into our area tomorrow morning,
so I included PROB30s for TSRA at all taf sites (except KCLT)
from roughly 08 to 12z. Again, the activity appears to weaken
considerably as it reaches KCLT, so only have VCSH for them.
Fog/low stratus will be possible again early Monday in the mtn
valleys, but the potential is lower than this morning owing to
expected increasing mid/high clouds. Another round of convection
is expected to move thru the area tomorrow aftn, but is only
mentioned in the KCLT taf since it won't likely impact our area
until after 18z.

Outlook: Another cold front is expected to bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday afternoon/evening.
Slightly drier conditions will limit the potential for diurnal
convection and overnight restrictions Tuesday thru Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-261800-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
154 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will track out of eastern
Tennessee this afternoon. These storms may survive east of the
mountains late this afternoon into early this evening. A few
thunderstorms may become strong. The main potential impacts are gusty
winds and cloud- to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A cold front will cross the area on Monday and bring a chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon. These storms
may become organized and potentially produce damaging winds and
large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ010>012-019-101>109-261800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
154 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A strong line of showers and thunderstorms will track out of eastern
Tennessee this afternoon. These storms may survive east the
mountains late this afternoon into early this evening. A few storms
may become strong to severe. The main potential impacts are damaging
wind gusts and large hail.

A line of showers and thunderstorms pushing across East Tennessee
tonight may have the potential to bring brief damaging wind gusts as
it moves into western North Carolina overnight. Brief heavy rain
will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front on Monday may
become strong to briefly severe with damaging winds and large hail
as the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

AR

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