Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

037 
WWUS82 KGSP 281927
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
227 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

GAZ010-017-282300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-231128T2300Z/
Rabun-Habersham-
227 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Rabun and Habersham.

* TIMING...Through 6 PM EST.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Due to low humidity and breezy winds, in addition to 
  dry fuels and ongoing significant drought conditions, any 
  fires that develop could spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is 
  strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, .or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
642 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and chilly high pressure will build into the region through
Wednesday. Strong and gusty winds will be felt across the mountains
today, but will weaken by tonight. Moisture will return from the
west late this week, and unsettled weather will occur at times
Friday through Sunday as waves of low pressure cross the Southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EST Tuesday: Scattered to broken upper clouds are now
mainly east of the mountains this morning, with stratocu noted
across the northern NC mountains and along the NC/TN border. Cloud
cover has limited radiational cooling somewhat, leading to temps
running a few degrees higher than forecast. Thus, bumped up lows a
few degrees to better match up with the latest OBS. Otherwise, a
shortwave with limited moisture will continue tracking across
western Carolinas this morning, mainly increasing stratocu along the
NC/TN border and the northern NC mountains. Could not rule out the
potential for some brief snow flurries in the northern NC mountains
through the mid-morning hours, but accums will be limited by gusty
winds. Lows this morning will be cold, dipping into the low to upper
20s across the mountains and the upper 20s to mid 30s east of the
mountains. The highest ridge tops will see the coldest temps, with
lows expected to fall into the teens. With gusty NW winds in place
this morning across the mountains, elevations above 3500 ft will see
wind chills drop into the single digits. The highest ridge tops in
the northern NC mountains will likely see wind chills drop a few
degrees below zero.

Winds will increase through roughly mid-morning becoming gusty. The
NBM probability of exceedance for wind gusts shows roughly a 70 to
90% chance of gusts exceeding Wind Advisory criteria in the northern
NC mountains. This, combined with global guidance showing the 40-50
kt 850 mb jet maximizing over the northern Blue Ridge Escarpment,
leads to high confidence that advisory level gusts will occur today
in these areas. The Wind Advisory was expanded earlier this morning
to include elevations above 3500 ft in the central and southern NC
mountains as the NBM probability of exceedance for wind gusts showed
roughly a 50 to 70% chance of gusts exceeding Wind Advisory criteria
for the majority of the higher elevation locations. Confidence is at
least moderate that advisory gusts will be seen across these areas
today. Winds east of the mountains will increase shortly after
daybreak, but will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Gusty winds,
along with RH values dropping below 30% this afternoon, will lead to
increased fire danger across portions of western North Carolina and
northeast Georgia. See the Fire weather discussion below for more
information. Winds will gradually decrease this afternoon into this
evening as sfc high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Any
cloud cover that develops this morning should clear out by this
afternoon leading to sunny skies. Despite great insolation, CAA will
lead to temps this afternoon around 8-14 degrees below climo. Highs
will struggle to get out of the mid 40s and lower 50s east of the
mountains. Highs across the lower elevations of the mountains will
be chilly, only reaching into the mid 30s and lower 40s. Elevations
above 3500 ft will see cold temps, with highs only climbing into the
mid 20s and lower 30s.

Clear skies will last through tonight as the sfc high moves directly
overhead, allowing for great radiational cooling. Thus, went below
the NBM for tonight's lows. Lows will tank into the teens to low 20s
across western NC, with the lower 20s expected across NE GA and the
SC Upstate. Wind chills will drop back into the single digits
tonight across the higher elevations of the NC mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Tue: Sfc high will migrate past the CWA Wednesday,
allowing some rebound in partial thicknesses and setting up light
southwesterly sfc flow. Skies will remain mostly clear. These warming
influences will be offset by the day starting off so cold. However,
without the brisk winds and being farthest from the high, the
mountains should trend several degrees warmer. The Piedmont on the
other hand should see max temps at or a couple degrees below
Tuesday's. The high will drift off the Southeast coast Wednesday
night. A shortwave then moving across the southern Rockies will
induce high altitude WAA and moisture flux over the Southeast,
manifesting as a wave of alto/cirrus cloud cover over our area
overnight. Low levels will remain very dry and we will continue with
basically zero PoP.  The clouds will help keep min temps warmer,
although still on the order of 10 degrees below normal. Temps will
rebound further on Thursday, rising to about normal.

Cyclogenesis subsequently will occur Thursday as the shortwave
crosses Texas. The sfc low will track over the Ozarks, likely ending
up near the mouth of the Ohio River by late Friday morning. Cold
front will remain near the lower MS River. WAA, isentropic lift will
however amplify over our area, and the moist layer will lower in
altitude. The dry sfc layer will have to be overcome in order for
precip to reach the surface. The consulted models have appreciable
differences in how quickly it is overcome, and this is the source of
uncertainty in PoPs early Friday. Precip type could prove tricky by
the same token. Prog soundings depict a warm nose, but evaporative
cooling would appear likely to be a factor at the onset of precip,
for delaying the onset altogether if not modifying p-type. Sfc temps
will have moderated such that only some of the valley floors look to
fall below freezing, especially with higher elevations being in the
warm nose.  Model temp trends show coldest temperatures earlier in
the night, thus suggesting moistening and WAA will offset any
evaporative cooling in those locations. For now a snow mention is
only warranted in a few isolated spots in the northern mountains;
otherwise precip is mentioned only as rain. Temps will warm after
daybreak.

Isentropic lift will peak by midday Friday as warm conveyor belt of
the sfc low traverses the area. With little in the way of dynamic
lift, and the low tracking well to our northwest, model QPF
diminishes from west to east across the CWA. Categorical PoPs thus
will be limited to the western half, and PoPs taper back to just a
chance by the end of the day in all zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tue: Unsettled weather appears likely to occur for
a good portion of the medium range period, and model solutions
continue to fall into two camps; the one with better run-to-run
consistency would prolong the unsettled weather basically thru
the weekend. The good news, in one sense, is that we should remain
too warm for any wintry precip through almost all the period.

The Thursday-Friday shortwave will be embedded within an expansive
trough dipping as far south as Baja California. Another embedded
wave will rotate through, crossing the Plains circa Saturday. The
cold front associated with the preceding system will go stationary
across the inland South before being reactivated by the second
shortwave.  Somewhat of a lull is expected Friday night before
precip potentially returns late Saturday in response. The EC and
GDPS solutions show the shortwave far enough south that they spin
up another sfc low near the western Gulf Coast along the boundary,
supporting widespread rain chances Sunday. The GDPS is the more
amplified of those two, showing stronger high pressure in the
northeastern CONUS as well as a stronger low, so it seems to develop
CAD and maintains one long period of precip continuing into Sunday
night. The EC shows the sfc high being less conducive to CAD. In
the other camp, the GFS is further north with its depiction of the
second shortwave, and this leads it to dry us out by Sunday morning.

All three models move the longwave trough eastward early next week,
with a deep cyclone developing as a result. A sfc high should
be in place over the Northeast by that time. The concern for
us is the possibility of this cyclone developing in the Midwest
and activating the southern US frontal zone in such a way that
a triple-point low develops on the SW fringe of the high, which
could translate to a high-shear low-CAPE severe wx risk for some
of the CWA. Confidence is limited by the overall model differences,
but the GDPS and GFS both depict this sort of scenario, the former
Sunday and the latter Monday. Certainly not a slam dunk at this
point. It is worth some consideration, but much too early to count
on. A small amount of NW-flow precip is possible in the wake of
the front associated with the Midwest low, with temps cold enough
to support a chance of high elevation snow Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 12Z TAF period thanks
to dry high pressure building in from the west. BKN to OVC high
clouds remain in place across KCLT and the SC Upstate terminals this
morning, but are gradually pushing out of the area. Skies should be
clear by this afternoon. Gusty winds will be the main impact through
the TAF period. Gusts will start by mid-morning east of the
mountains, ranging from 20-25 kts. KAVL may see gusts near 30 kts
later this morning. Winds across the mountains will be NW'ly through
the TAF period, with winds turning NW'ly east of the mountains by
mid-morning. Winds will gradually decrease starting this afternoon,
with gusts diminishing by the early evening hours across the
terminals as the sfc high moves directly overhead. Wind direction
east of the mountains will turn N'ly this evening, becoming NE'ly
tonight. KCLT will see winds turn to the SW around daybreak on
Wednesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will linger Wednesday into Thursday.
Moisture and associated restrictions may return from the west Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected across much of
western North Carolina and northeast Georgia today. Critical
relative humidity values below 30 percent are expected, along with
continued dry fuels and brush. Thus, Fire Danger Statements are in
place in collaboration with land managers for northeast Georgia
(this afternoon and evening) and for locations east of the
escarpment of the Blue Ridge Mountains in western NC (mid-morning
through this evening).

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger from noon EST today through this evening
     for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>064-501-503-505.
     Increased Fire Danger until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...AR/HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-290930-
Henderson-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-290930-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Furthermore, single-digit wind chills are expected this morning in
higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains. The highest ridge
tops should see wind chills a few degrees below zero.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>508-290930-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-290930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ501-503-505-290930-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Increased Fire Danger.

Furthermore, single-digit wind chills are expected this morning in
higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains. The highest ridge
tops should see wind chills around zero.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-290930-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
428 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Furthermore, single-digit wind chills are expected this morning in
higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains. The highest ridge
tops should see wind chills a few degrees below zero. These same
areas may see wind chills dip in the single digits tonight as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
351 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-282100-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
351 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The combination of low relative humidities, gusty winds, and very
dry fuels will lead to an increased risk of dangerous fire
behavior from mid-morning through late this afternoon.

Burning is highly discouraged. Please refer to your local burn
permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do burn,
use extreme caution, since fires can quickly get out of hand
under these conditions.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-282100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
351 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

The combination of low relative humidities and gusty winds will
lead to an increased risk of dangerous fire behavior this
afternoon through this evening.

Burning is highly discouraged. Please refer to your local burn
permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do burn,
use extreme caution, since fires can quickly get out of hand
under these conditions.

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
844 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-290145-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
844 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The combination of low relative humidities, gusty winds, and very
dry fuels will lead to an increased risk of dangerous fire
behavior from mid-morning through late this afternoon.

Burning is highly discouraged. Please refer to your local burn
permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do burn,
use extreme caution, since fires can quickly get out of hand
under these conditions.

GAZ018-026-028-029-290145-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
844 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The combination of low relative humidities and gusty winds will
lead to an increased risk of dangerous fire behavior this
afternoon through this evening.

Burning is highly discouraged. Please refer to your local burn
permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do burn,
use extreme caution, since fires can quickly get out of hand
under these conditions.