High Wind Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

282 
WWUS72 KGSP 280015
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
715 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

NCZ033-049-050-281215-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230228T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
715 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 7 PM this evening to 9 
  AM EST Tuesday. For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-280115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230228T0000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
715 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have declined over the area, though some gustiness will
continue.

$$

NCZ501-503-505-281215-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
715 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains and McDowell 
  Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

832 
WWUS72 KGSP 280833
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

NCZ033-049-050-281400-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
333 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ501-503-505-281400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
333 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains and McDowell 
  Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

326 
WWUS72 KGSP 281400
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
900 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

NCZ033-049-050-281500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
900 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Winds have weakened enough that a High Wind Warning is no longer
justified except on the very highest unpopulated ridgetops. The
winds will continue to diminish through the morning, so the
warning is being allowed to expire.

$$

NCZ501-503-505-281500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-230228T1400Z/
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
900 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Winds will continue to diminish through the morning, so the 
Advisory is being allowed to expire.

$$
Wimberley

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front is expected to cross the region late today,
with the best rain chances over the mountains. We dry out for
Tuesday and most of Wednesday, but another front will drop down
into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.  A strong cold front
may affect the region with possible severe weather on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 AM EST Monday: Dense fog has improved across most of the
area, so the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire on time. A
couple lingering 1/4 mile vsby reports out there, but overall
trends continue to improve. Otherwise, forecast is on track,
and no major changes were made with this update.

A potent 500 mb trough is evident in WV imagery pivoting
across the central Great Plains, and the latest guidance has
this feature tracking northeast into central IL this afternoon,
and into the upper Ohio Valley overnight tonight.  In response,
a stagnant boundary to our south will lift across the Carolinas
shortly after daybreak and place the CWA squarely within the warm
sector of the advancing surface low.  So, light shower activity
will be possible as early as sunrise for the favored upslope zones
of the SW mountains and southern Blue Ridge Escarpment...and will
gradually expand in coverage and intensity throughout the day as the
attendant cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley.  850mb flow will
increase significantly by mid-afternoon as a prefrontal 45-50kt LLJ
enters the forecast area.  Confidence is low on any advisory-level
gusts except at the very highest peaks...with mixing generally
looking too shallow on forecast soundings to tap into those high
winds aloft.  So, no plans to issue a Wind Advisory this morning,
but will maintain mention of gusty winds in the HWO.  In any case,
thunder isn't expected with this shower activity...as although the
new HREF depicts 200-500 J/kg sbCAPE during the afternoon, model
profiles depict a fairly shallow convective layer and unimpressive
mid-level lapse rates that simply won't support much in the way of
updrafts.  So, notwithstanding the potential for a stray rumble of
thunder during the afternoon hours, the forecast remains just rainy.

By late evening, as the cold front actually arrives in the western
tier, the heaviest shower activity will shift east of the I-77
corridor, and profiles will rapidly dry out.  As a result,
clearing is expected Monday night and through the end of the
forecast period Tuesday morning.  Despite some leftover low-level
moisture persisting during the overnight hours, postfrontal winds
should be too strong through the night to support any fog outside
of isolated, sheltered areas...and the guidance is accordingly
unexcited by any fog potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 153 AM Monday: The middle part of the week continues to
look relatively benign as we enjoy a nearly zonal flow aloft that
supports sfc high pressure moving past to the north on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the sfc high slides off the East Coast
and the Gulf opens up for moisture to begin streaming northward back
into our area, but the latest model guidance suggests that moisture
return will not reach us until very late in the day. The trend is
also toward not developing isentropic lift over the southwest mtns
until perhaps around sunset. The new fcst will reflect the delay
of precip onset with only a small chance over the far western part
of the fcst area in the late afternoon. Otherwise, temps will be
well above normal and typical of late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday: The real interesting part of the forecast
lurks out in the medium range, specifically Thursday and Friday,
but details remain sketchy while model trends sort out the position
and timing of relevant features. Expect precip to develop across
the fcst area Wednesday night as isentropic upglide and upper
divergence improve and act upon moisture streaming northward from
the Gulf. A initial sfc low depicted as moving over the lower
Great Lakes should drag a sfc boundary down into/over the fcst
area on Thursday that will provide more focus for rain. Precip
probs ramp up quickly to the categorical/likely ranges and stay
there from Wednesday night onward. The concern with this initial
round will be heavy rain/flood potential owing to precipitable
water pooling along the boundary that will rival the daily max in
the sounding climatology. At this time, the QPF across the fcst
area remains modest with the better amounts over the Great Valley
of TN, but we will mind the trend. There could be something of a
lull in the activity late Thursday and/or early Friday, perhaps
as the sfc boundary would lift back northward as a warm front,
but indicating that in the fcst grids is difficult. Confidence
has improved incrementally regarding the forecast for severe
thunderstorm potential on Friday, what with the Euro and Canadian
models showing run-to-run consistency with moving the sfc low to
the N/W of the srn Appalachians and allowing for the entire fcst
area to make it into the warm sector. During the afternoon, both
the GFS, which has been rather consistent, and the ECMWF bring
a plume of 500-1000 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE eastward across the
fcst area overlapped with strong mostly unidirectional shear. Fcst
soundings from the GFS are compelling and supportive of all severe
tstm hazards. A severe wind producing squall line with embedded
tornadic mini-supercells would be a viable scenario, but again,
some of the details remain yet to be sorted out, especially the
timing which for now in the guidance looks ideal if you like/want
severe storms. At any rate, now would be the time to start raising
awareness of the potential threat for late in the week. Up until
the front arrives, temps will be akin to late April/early May,
but the frontal passage should cool us back down to merely 5-10
degrees above normal for the weekend, which looks fair with sfc
high pressure dominant.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: As of 1115Z, the eastern third of the
Upstate and Piedmont are socked into widespread low stratus atop
a shallow remnant wedge.  A slowly-broadening region of dense fog
has developed across the eastern and central Upstate and Piedmont,
which has been handled by a Dense Fog Advisory set to expire
at 14Z.  Restrictions should lift quickly after daybreak per all
the leading guidance (including the HREF's aviation grids, which
ultimately performed better than most other sources last night),
except in the mountains where most sources keep IFR clouds around
through much of he day.  Winds will pick up through the day today
as a prefrontal WAA regime becomes better-established...with most
terminals picking up gusts for the late morning and afternoon
hours as well as VCSH/PROB30s for -SHRA as early as late morning
and lasting into the overnight hours before diminishing in the wee
hours of the morning as a trailing cold front crosses the region.
Rapid improvement is advertised thereafter, as dry high pressure
builds in from the west.  VFR is expected by daybreak Tuesday if
not earlier, and should continue through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Dry high pressure remains over the region into Tuesday,
and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Another front
will approach from the west late in the week, bringing increasing
clouds and rain chances starting Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
909 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-281415-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
909 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Windy conditions will develop across the high terrain this afternoon
and into tonight. Wind gusts along the higher elevations could reach
40 to 45 mph at times. The wind gusts could be strong enough to
knock down some tree limbs and power lines, resulting in sporadic
power outages.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A low pressure system moving past to our northwest on Friday is
expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely
in the afternoon. Present indications are that enough instability
and wind shear would be available to raise the threat for
thunderstorms with all forms of severe weather possible. However,
details remain sketchy this far in the future as to the eventual
timing and location of the more significant threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-281415-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
909 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A low pressure system moving past to our northwest on Friday is
expected to push a strong cold front across our region, most likely
in the afternoon. Present indications are that enough instability
and wind shear would be available to raise the threat for
thunderstorms with all forms of severe weather possible. However,
details remain sketchy this far in the future as to the eventual
timing and location of the more significant threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.