Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

077 
WGUS72 KGSP 041329
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
829 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAC257-041530-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230104T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stephens GA-
829 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST THIS 
MORNING FOR STEPHENS COUNTY...

At 829 AM EST, It was reported that Toccoa Creek was flooding a 
portion of Falls Road this morning.  Additional areas of high water 
were also likely in other areas of Greater Toccoa after a 3.5 inch 
rainfall event.  With little to no chance of additional heavy rain 
expected, high water conditions and flooding of low-lying areas will 
gradually improve as the morning wears on.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Toccoa, Martin, Avalon, Lake Hartwell, Eastanolee and Boydville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8334 3467 8331 3465 8329 3464 8325
      3461 8323 3460 8316 3460 8317 3459 8317
      3459 8315 3458 8316 3457 8314 3456 8314
      3456 8313 3454 8310 3448 8318 3447 8337
      3446 8340 3448 8346 3468 8337 3469 8334

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rainfall and possible thunderstorms will continue
through much of the morning and early afternoon today, before
tapering off as a cold front sweeps across the region and ushers
in drier air tonight.  Dry conditions continue through the end of
the week, before increasing cloud cover and low precip chances
return for the weekend.  After Sunday, confidence drops steeply
as an uncertain forecast sets up for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 am EST: Latest water vapor imagery indicates stacked
cyclone over the upper Miss Valley, with frontal boundary extending
into the Ohio Valley south through the TN Valley and the Deep South.
Broad frontal band of convection is progressing across the forecast
area this morning, producing locally heavy rainfall rates as high as
1 inch/hour. A Flood Watch for flash flooding was issued earlier for
much of northeast GA and the northwest corner of the Upstate,
including the Greenville metro area, as radar trends and the latest
output from the HRRR indicates this area will be ground zero for the
heaviest rainfall...on top of the 1 to 2 inches that fell last
evening and during the overnight hours. Localized runoff issues will
certainly be possible in other locations, especially across that
portion of the GA/SC Piedmont not in the Watch, but those areas have
been omitted due to higher levels of uncertainty re: additional
rainfall and also due to that area's historical track record of
being less flood prone than the foothills.

Otherwise, the latest mesoanalysis depicts weak sbCAPE finally
beginning to nose its way into the far southern portion of the CWA.
With the low level jet translating across the area at this time, low
level shear values are on the upswing to the tune of 30-40 kts of
0-1 km bulk shear. Parameters are therefore converging toward a near
term uptick in the severe storm threat. Indeed, there's an
interesting looking linear convective feature east of the ATL metro
area that may make a run toward the Lakelands and vicinity in an
hour or so. Locally damaging wind gusts and isolated/brief/weak
tornadoes will be possible with this and other similar features that
develop as the morning progresses.

The best overlap of instability/forcing/shear will be across roughly
the SE third or so of the area from late morning into early
afternoon, which is when the severe storm threat should peak. The
frontal band should then clear much of the area by mid-afternoon or
so, with decreasing cloud cover thereafter on the heels of dry/cool
air advection. Max temps today will again be well above normal.
Tonight should be noticeably cooler than recent mornings, but still
10 degrees or so above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 129 AM EST Wednesday: A dry short term for GSP as we
dispense with the last of the DPVA associated with a broad
upper low over Quebec.  Drying continues in the wake of a robust
frontal zone shifting off to the east, as WNW 850mb flow supports
ongoing cold/dry advection across the Carolinas.  Don't expect
this to be terribly potent...as cross-isotherm component of flow
will be less-than-impressive...but should be enough to enough to
facilitate a solid 10-degree drop in temperatures across the CWA.
So, expect temps to be near-normal again by Thursday night
and Friday.  Can't rule out some spotty NW flow snow showers in
favored upslope zones along the NC-TN border mainly before daybreak
on Friday.  This is supported by successive SREF and GEFS cycles,
but accumulations should be negligible since it now looks like the
more potent CAA won't arrive until Friday afternoon and beyond,
when profiles even in the mountain valleys will be increasingly
sapped of good moisture content.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1259 AM EST Tuesday: Deep layer NWly flow will continue
the first part of Saturday as a period of weak ridging sets in
behind the retreating upper low.  Guidance depicts a sharpening
on the descending limb of the low - such that a lobe of DPVA
forcing passes over the forecast area Saturday night.  Backing of
low-level winds will produce more favorable moisture transport
into the region by Saturday night as the better forcing arrives.
Profiles at this point don't look especially conducive to rainfall,
with varying levels of near-ground dryness that may act to inhibit
better rainfall...but this will all depend on how soon the low-level
flow becomes more favorable.  Ensemble members are still all over
the place. A sizable chunk of the GEFS membership, for example,
indicates that moistening will occur too late for Saturday
night's forcing to result in much rainfall at all, and instead
hold off on bringing meaningful PoPs into the region until late
Sunday, when a weak, ill-defined surface low begins to spin up
somewhere over the Ozarks or Deep South. Either way, the
environment on Sunday becomes increasingly warm sector-esque as
the upper ridge axis shifts east and low-level WAA picks up. By
Sunday night, ensemble guidance is in better agreement on at
least scattered rain showers as the anemic surface low drifts
across the Southeast. And indeed, this still looks to be an all-
rain forecast, with no real cold air in place to warrant frozen
p-types outside the highest elevations.

For Monday and beyond...still too much uncertainty to say much.
Several operational runs have a split-flow pattern developing
over the central Great Plains, poised to bring additional periods
of synoptic forcing into the forecast area, while many ensemble
members support drier conditions.  So potential outcomes run the
gamut from essentially dry for Monday night onward, to periods of
rain persisting into Wednesday morning.  Regardless...temperatures
should trend upward through Monday, reaching up to a category
above climo, before falling back to near-normal values by Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A broad band of showers w/ embedded TS will
continue to move across the Terminal Forecast Area this morning,
warranting at least tempos for TSRA for several hours. IFR/LIFR
conditions are generally expected to prevail, although heavier
convective cells will tend to scatter out the very low cigs, while
reducing visby to 1-2SM. Brief gusty winds may also accompany some
storms. Low cigs and precip will persist before improvement begins
from the west during late morning/early afternoon. All sites should
see VFR conditions develop during the afternoon/evening...continuing
through the end of the period. South winds will steadily increase
toward 10 through the morning, veering to the SW and increasing a
bit more toward afternoon. The potential for gusts to around 20 kts
will also increase from late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR with dry conditions return by Thursday and continue
into Saturday. Another moist low pressure system could affect the
region late in the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch until noon EST today for GAZ010-017-018-026.
NC...None.
SC...Flood Watch until noon EST today for SCZ101>106.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

NCZ059-062>065-051015-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rain and embedded thunder will continue through
this morning and into early or mid afternoon. This will pose a risk
of isolated minor flooding along small streams and low-lying areas,
as well as along south- and west-facing slopes in the mountains. Any
thunderstorms developing in this timeframe will be capable of
producing isolated wind damage, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning,
and isolated brief tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ101>106-051015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-
512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition to the threat of flash flooding, scattered thunderstorms
are expected across the area this morning. Any thunderstorms
developing in this timeframe will be capable of producing isolated
wind damage, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and isolated brief
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-107>109-
051015-
Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of semi-organized showers and thunderstorms will cross into
the area early this morning. The thunderstorms will be capable of
producing isolated damaging winds and frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, locally
heavy to excessive rainfall is also expected, and this could result
in isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ035-501>510-051015-
Alexander-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
this morning. Any of these thunderstorms will be capable of
producing gusty winds and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-048>053-058-051015-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
512 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
714 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ028-029-041300-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-
714 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Elbert and
southeastern Hart Counties through 800 AM EST...

At 713 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Danielsville, or near Hull, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elberton, Hartwell, Bowman, Russell State Park, Reed Creek, Royston,
Lake Russell, Dewy Rose, Nuberg and Ruckersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8304 3411 8303 3412 8305 3415 8306
      3417 8310 3423 8308 3426 8311 3427 8311
      3444 8290 3430 8278 3419 8273 3418 8273
      3414 8271 3403 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 231DEG 35KT 3402 8326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG