Beach Hazards Statement 10, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

217 
WHUS43 KGRR 111908
CFWGRR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
308 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-120100-
/O.CON.KGRR.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-230712T0100Z/
Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
308 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...High wave action, strong currents, and dangerous 
  swimming conditions expected. Piers may be heavily swamped by 
  waves.

* WHERE...Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong currents can pull swimmers into deeper water 
  and high waves can sweep people off piers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The wave direction will be shifting from 
  southwest to northwest as a front drops through the area. Thus 
  all beaches and piers could be impacted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions
and do not venture out on piers. Please check with your local
authorities on potential beach closures.

&&

$$

579 
WHUS43 KGRR 120056
CFWGRR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
856 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-120200-
/O.EXP.KGRR.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-230712T0100Z/
Mason-Oceana-Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
856 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Winds and waves have fallen below critical levels and therefore
the Beach Hazards Statement will be allowed to expire at 9 PM.
Waves around 3 feet near South Haven may persist through 11 PM,
but the trend should be rapidly down as winds have diminished from
the afternoon peak.

$$

DUKE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation/Marine

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Thunderstorms are currently moving across Lake Michigan along an
axis of elevated instability, low level convergence, higher
surface dew points ahead of the cold front, and along a low level
jet pointing at central Lower Michigan. These storms are progged
to weaken as they move east into a more stable environment with a
weakening low level jet.

The front will sag into Lower Michigan and daytime heating will
result in an increase in surface based instability with storms
forecast to fire up again across central and southern Lower
Michigan this afternoon. The severe threat will include hail and
downburst/microburst wind damage as a dry adiabatic subcloud layer
seen in model soundings will enhance downdraft potential.

The front hangs up across the southern Michigan border overnight
and is the focus for more storms late tonight through Wednesday as
a wave moves along the front with deep moisture return. P-wats
spike to over 1.5 inches and overrunning pattern will bring large
area of moderate rains with enough instability for embedded
thunderstorms with higher rainfall rates and potential for 1 to 2
inches of rain across much of the southern half of the forecast
area. Streams and rivers could see significant rises by late
Wednesday but levels are low to begin with, which would mitigate
any potential issues with river flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

The models are latching onto the idea of MCS activity moving across
the cwa Wednesday night along the quasi-stationary frontal boundary
near the MI/IN border. We'll be on the tail-end of the system as the
long term period begins, but still could see an additional quarter
inch of rain through Thursday morning. We should see some sunshine
develop by Thursday afternoon as the low moves away. The dry weather
will likely be short lived though. The persistent Hudson Bay upper
low will continue to send a cavalcade of short waves from the
Northern Plains across the Great Lakes every couple of days through
next Monday/Tuesday.

Rain chances will increase again Friday afternoon through Saturday
and again Monday. Good lift will be generated by the left exit
region of the upper jet. Precipitable water increases substantially
ahead of the Friday short wave to around 1.8 inches. Same thing late
Sunday. Thus any storms that develop will be capable of producing
heavy rain.

We'll have to keep an eye out for stronger storms Friday/Saturday as
bulk shear climbs to 35-40 knots indicating some potential for
organization.

Highs during the period will be within a couple of degrees of 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front could bring local IFR
conditions through this afternoon across the southern half of
Lower Michigan. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue
through tonight.

Winds could gust over 20 knots today. Some gusts over 30 knots
are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Winds and waves have come down overnight and the SCA is cancelled
Winds will go north today behind the cold front then go offshore
tonight while diminishing to less than 20 knots with waves around
3 feet.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1013 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121415-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
1013 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe weather. The main threat is
large hail and downburst winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday. Heavy
rain could bring localized flooding on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

LMZ844>849-121415-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1013 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A moderate swim risk exists across the area today.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible, especially later tonight.
Cloud to water lightning strikes and gusty winds will be the main
risks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday. Damaging
winds, large winds and frequent lightning will be the main risks.
Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.