Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
110 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Early this morning, a few light showers were exiting Manitowoc
County while patchy fog was being reported across the far north.
Temperatures shortly before sunrise were in the 50s north and
in the upper 50s to middle 60s south and along the lake and bay.

For this morning, the patchy fog across the far north should
burn off quickly after sunrise. The cumulus field should develop
by mid to late morning. Like yesterday, once the convective
temperatures (upper 70s to lower 80s) is reached, convection
will break out. Bufkit soundings indicated 500 to 1,000 J/KG
of CAPE, although the NAM was somewhat higher. 0-6 km shear
values were around 20 knots with wet bulb zero heights of
eight to ten thousand feet. Bufkit soundings also depicted an
invert V structure in the lower levels of the soundings which is
an indicator that gusty winds. With the higher CAPE values and
stronger 0-6 km shear values, have decided to add winds to around
40 mph, small hail and brief heavy rain in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook (HWO). The strongest storms will be in the afternoon
into mid evening.

Also, an upper level disturbance will drop southeast across
the area during the evening. As the feature passes to the
east of the area, the chances of showers and thunderstorms
will come to an end from northwest to southeast. Later
tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop across northern
Wisconsin. On Sunday, the northwest flow aloft continues with
weak pieces of energy moving through the mean flow. These
features combined with heating of the day will bring another
chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area

For temperatures, used a blend of BCCONSALL and current forecast
for max/min temperatures this weekend. Highs both days should be
in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Lows tonight should drop into the
50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Starting out with northwest flow aloft and a continuation of weak
shortwaves, which when combined with daytime heating, could
produce a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on
Monday.

Upper high/ridge which was been persistent across the southwest
U.S. the past couple weeks, will build towards the Upper
Mississippi Valley starting Tuesday. This will lead to
progressively warmer temperatures in Wisconsin as the associated
warm air mass expands northeast. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are
on pace to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s, possibly getting to
the middle 90s in a few spots in central Wisconsin or the Fox
Valley. Models differ on how far north the ridge expands, as two
separate upper lows in Canada will help flatten the ridge as it
expands this direction. Either way, it will be warm and fairly
humid, with dew points ranging from 62 to 70 degrees during this
stretch.

Meanwhile, chances for showers and thunderstorms exist each day,
but specifics are tough to determine as most of this will be
driven by weak shortwaves or surface features. A more notable
surface cold front comes through late Thursday or early Friday
which will be the best chance for widespread showers or storms.
Behind the front, temps will return to seasonal normals by
Saturday.

As mentioned in the previous discussions, will also be watching
potential for smoke, especially early in the week. This could
impact both temperatures and precip chances, as the thicker the
smoke is overhead, the great influence it will have on lowering
temps and instability.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period with
the exception of where diurnally driven isolated showers and
thunderstorms pop-up this afternoon into this evening.
Additionally, a shortwave and associated weak cold front will move
southeast across the region early this evening, bringing a broken
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. The shower
and thunderstorm activity will come to an end after midnight
tonight. Patchy fog is expected to develop later tonight across
central, north-central, and far northeast WI, with patchy dense
fog possible at the RHI TAF site. Any fog will dissipate soon
after sunrise on Sunday.

.KOSH...

Although VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period,
brief MVFR conditions are possible within any isolated shower or
thunderstorm that develops near or over the area this afternoon.
Additional showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak cold
front will then move across the area between 00z and 03z Sunday.
Winds will generally be from the west or southwest around 5 to 10
kts, but outflow boundaries from the shower and thunderstorm
activity could produce erratic winds at times with gusts to around
30 kts.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......KLJ
AVIATION.......Kruk

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